What we learnt at July Festival including thoughts on Italy, Zavateri and Scandinavia

St Leger stranglehold

Aidan O’Brien’s grip on the Betfred St Leger – he’s won the past two renewals don’t forget – appeared to become even tighter at Newmarket following Scandinavia’s wide-margin win in the Bahrain Trophy on day one of the July Festival.

On a strict reading of that performance the Justify colt, who was sporting first-time cheekpieces and given an ultimate no-nonsense ride out in front by Ryan Moore, at least matched the bare form of Lambourn’s Irish Derby-winning effort from late last month, and it was no shock to see Scandinavia squeeze up in between his stablemate and Curragh runner-up Lazy Griff in the antepost lists for Doncaster.

The only thing preventing that revised 5/1 looking a very decent bet is that Scandinavia’s name also featured among seven from Ballydoyle when the Goodwood Cup entries closed a couple of weeks ago. Illinois and Continuous are highly likely to line up there so perhaps the three-year-olds (Galveston, Puppet Master and Shackleton also engaged in the Goodwood Cup) will be kept to their own age group for the time being.

Either way, Scandinavia is a smart stayer in the making and connections will be working back from the 2026 Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, where he was a staying-on fifth in last month’s Queen’s Vase, a race contested by Illinois, Kew Gardens and very nearly Kyprios (a late withdrawal after getting upset in the stalls on the day) in recent seasons.

Eve the gift that keeps on giving

Probably not Classic potential on show here but Zavateri’s 18/1 win in the July Stakes was yet another advertisement for the training talents of Eve Johnson Houghton, who has already worked wonders with loads of two-year-olds including this season's Royal Ascot winner Havana Hurricane, who could be out again (and under a very favourable weight given his purchase price) in the Weatherbys Super Sprint this Saturday.

No doubt helped by a pretty bonkers early pace set by Oisin Murphy on Comical Point, which appeared to lure market leaders Maximised and Brussels into a fight far too soon in the contest, Zavateri picked up stylishly to win by a length from Ed Walker’s Do Or Do Not, who couldn’t go anything like the gallop through the first three furlongs of the race.

The winner was an unusual July Stakes entry given his pedigree – the race so often rewarding the ‘early speed’ types who have already thrived at the Royal meeting – but a bold bit of campaigning was duly rewarded and moving forward it would be unwise to underestimate Zavateri, who his terrific pound-for-pound trainer believes could be one of the best horses she’s ever had in the yard.

Italy has massive future

If you hang off every word that comes from Aidan O’Brien’s mouth then you’ll have noticed just how more effusive, how seemingly candid, he has become in recent years. You definitely don’t hear as many ‘listen...’ fillers and, I could be wrong of course, but his pre-race hints tend to be far more revealing than those adrenaline-fuelled, often commercially-driven, utterances complete with hair swipe in the immediate aftermath of victory.

So when he said "win, lose or draw he will learnt plenty" about the odds-on Italy on ITV prior to Saturday’s Superlative Stakes, my ears did prick a little bit. In the event, circumstances transpired against the son of Wootton Bassett, who raced freely on the wing of the field before getting carried further left out towards the middle of the course by wayward front-runner and eventual fourth, Venetian Lace.

A Group 2 looks a near formality for runner-up Italy and defeat here means he can go unpenalised into the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh next month (O'Brien has won the race 17 times before - yes that's seventeen), before an almost inevitable shot at a Group 1 or two in the autumn.

It’s not too bold a statement to predict that this physically attractive colt will end up winning more than he draws and loses put together come the end of his racing career.

Strength of Honour not seen to best effect

No matter where your money went, it was hard not to feel pleased for Richard Hughes after his filly No Half Measures took the majority of onlookers by surprise in the July Cup.

My initial reaction on Saturday was to suggest that "this was no draw race" despite the filly drawn highest of all somehow producing what looks a major PB if taken at face value, but with stalls one, two, three and five trailing home in the last four spots that's possibly something I need to revisit.

It would be convenient to swiftly conclude that Notable Speech isn’t a sprinter but I’m not sure he ran too far below his Lockinge and Queen Anne form – if at all – and perhaps he’s just not firing at the end of his races this time around, having run eight times between January and November in his maiden campaign as a three-year-old last year.

Having put up that one's Charlie Appleby stablemate Symbol Of Honour before his price crashed on the morning of the big race it was pointed out to me on social media that his record at Newmarket is pretty shocking, to which I gleefully replied that those form figures of 646 were all achieved on the Rowley Mile course. Things could be very different on this occasion, I took great pleasure in typing.

Update: 6468.

He hates the undulations of Newmarket doesn’t he? And Appleby suggested as much in his post-race debrief at the weekend, making the antepost quotes (16/1 generally) for Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup look quite attractive.

The form figures away from HQ, it should be pointed out, are a far more rosy 1621111, including this season’s Sandy Lane success at the pan-flat Newton-le-Willows venue.

Runner-up Big Mojo will surely be interesting in the Qatar King George at Goodwood and the Nunthorpe/Flying Five after that, while the slow-to-get-going Whistlejacket is worth another chance somewhere along the line too, but I’m sticking with Symbol Of Honour as the three-year-old who could yet breath most life into this confusing sprint division before the season’s out.

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