Our expert panel of Andrew Asquith, Tony McFadden and Nic Doggett tackle the big questions ahead of this weekend's racing.
With Nahraan not declared, Detain tops the market for the Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes on Saturday - would you back him to bounce back from his Royal Ascot flop?
Andrew Asquith (AA): I actually put Detain up for this race earlier in the week in my Weekend View column as I thought he just ran flat at Royal Ascot just 18 days after his career-best effort in the French Derby.
He had actually finished in front of Trinity College, winner of the Hampton Court Stakes, at Chantilly, but he clearly didn’t appreciate the quickish turnaround as much as that rival.
Detain arrived on the scene holding every chance two furlongs out before his effort petered out and he wasn’t given a hard time after. He’s been freshened up since and I expect him to show his true colours now, especially given he’s totally unexposed at this trip, and now takes on his elders for the first time, in receipt of a very handy 8lb weight-for-age allowance.
Tony McFadden (TM): He was undoubtedly disappointing last time but it's easy enough to forgive that effort given the quick turnaround from his French Derby third, while the very quick ground at Royal Ascot may also have been an issue.
He was beaten only half a length and a neck in third in the French Derby and that looks like a good piece of form in the context of Saturday's race, especially as he has fewer miles on the clock than most of his older rivals.
Nic Doggett (ND): No, I wouldn’t be in a rush to despite his weight-for-age allowance. He looked awkward to say the least when trying to pass Cualificar at Chantilly and the excuses weren’t obvious (firm ground, perhaps?) when disappointing at Royal Ascot last time.
The nine-year-old Certain Lad certainly doesn’t have the potential and nor does he have the class of some of his rivals, but this race had been targeted by Jack Channon with the horse’s effort at York last month likely to have brought him on. He loves flat tracks (wins galore, plus a Haydock record of 1-3-4-1-2-3-2), should be well-positioned in what looks likely to be a tactical race, and is fancied to win it at the fourth attempt.
The last two winners of the Newsells Park Stud Sweet Solera have gone on to win Group 1s - is there a future top-level winner in this year's six-runner line-up?
AA: The Charlie Appleby-trained Dance To The Music looks the obvious one. She’s bred to be smart, being a sister to the high-class Space Blues, who won the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and she made a good impression on her debut at the Rowley Mile Course in May.
She had Midnight Tango back in fourth that day, who has done no harm for the form, and Dance To The Music overcame inexperience to make a winning start, getting lost a little in the Dip, but only needing to be pushed out to score comfortably.
It is a slight concern she hasn’t been seen since, seemingly held back by some sort of setback, but she represents a yard that will have left no stone unturned, and remains with untapped potential.
Furthermore, Billy Loughnane has an outstanding strike rate of 61% when riding for Appleby, and that rises to a perfect 100% at the July Course (four wins from four rides).
TM: Dance To The Music is surely the one with the most potential so it's no surprise that she has been installed as favourite.
The sister to Space Blues created a good impression when making a successful debut in a six-furlong novice on Newmarket's Rowley Mile course in May and is likely to be much sharper for that experience.
ND: Those two winners – Fallen Angel and Lake Victoria – were both sent off the clear favourite and it looks as if Dance To The Music may go off even shorter still, such was the visual impression that she made when getting the better of Eskimo Pie back in May. However, I think Andy is being kind about the form - it looks modest to me (runner-up has made little real impact in pattern company since, the third is winless and rated 68, while the re-opposing fourth Midnight Tango has at least won and was then four places ahead of Eskimo Pie in the Princess Margaret, but doesn’t look a world-beater).
Clearly, Dance To The Music is the most likely in this field to progress to the upper echelons, but it’s all about potential for now and far too early to say. Quotes of 33/1 for next year’s 1000 Guineas might be remembered ruefully if she wins this in style, but she may prove more of a long-term proposition, it worth remembering that her slow-maturing sister Space Blues progressed well at four, winning three Group 1s in France and America.
The valuable Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh has been farmed by Aidan O’Brien over the years – is Gstaad this year’s Ballydoyle good thing?
AA: I wouldn’t be so sure you know. It is interesting that Aidan O’Brien throws three very strong darts at this year’s renewal, particularly letting Gstaad and True Love take each other on.
The latter had created a good impression in the Queen Mary and confirmed herself a smart juvenile when defeating the boys in the Railway Stakes, proving five lengths too strong for Puerto Rico.
On that evidence, it will be hard for Puerto Rico to reverse the form with True Love, while the 3lb sex allowance she receives from Gstaad could be pivotal. At the prices, I’d marginally prefer the claims of True Love, having had just one start at six furlongs previously, and proving better than ever at the trip.
TM: True Love has won the Queen Mary and Railway Stakes since she was turned over by Gstaad in a Navan maiden in May so is clearly an improved performer, but I'd still expect Gstaad to have the edge.
Unlike True Love, Gstaad didn't have the benefit for experience when they met at Navan but he kept on well to win going away by three-quarters of a length.
A decisive victory in the Coventry Stakes showed that Gstaad is right towards the head of the two-year-old pecking order and I’d expect him to prove too good.
ND: The market will probably tell us. That may not be the most insightful think I’ve ever written (editor – what was?) but we saw in the Goodwood Cup with the weakness of eventual runner-up Illinois that it’s worth taking note when two big guns from Ballydoyle clash in Group races.
Clearly, Gstaad is very exciting, but you’d suspect that it wasn’t an easy decision for Ryan Moore to ride the Coventry winner in preference to the Queen Mary (and then subsequent Railway Stakes) winner True Love, as he was equally effusive in his praise for both big, scopey individuals when they won at the Royal meeting.
True Love is 2 lb worse off than when beaten three quarters of a length by Gstaad at Naas in May but both have progressed since then; what seems sure, is that whoever wins will then be outright favourite for their respective Classic next spring.
Finally, it's the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup on Saturday - give us one horse and one jockey to follow at Ascot, please.
AA: Night Breeze is a horse who has been running consistently well this season and he will again be of interest in the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (14:45).
He bolted up over this course and distance in May and has run well in defeat all three starts since, well supported back at this venue last time and losing little in defeat to a classy type. The handicapper has left him on the same mark and, on his preferred fast ground, he seems sure to launch another bold bid.
Dario di Tocco, who will be making his debut at the Shergar Cup, is a jockey I’ll be keeping an eye on. He’s been crowned Champion Jockey for the past two seasons in Italy, and the 25-year-old looks neat in the saddle.
TM: Arisaig has shaped well to finish runner-up on two of her last three starts, including at Sandown last time where she fared easily best of those held up. She may well have threatened the winner had she not conceded first run, so she looks interesting off only 1 lb higher.
There aren’t many high-profile jockeys in action at the Shergar Cup this year, but Hugh Bowman is an established top-level rider and you'd have to imagine his mounts will be at some sort of advantage.
ND: Robert Cowell used to do well in the opening sprint on Shergar Cup Day and it’s one of his former inmates Emperor Spirit who I want to give another chance to in this year’s renewal.
Now in the care of Michael Keady, who I think is an under-rated young Newmarket trainer, the talented front-runner reared in the stalls at Ascot last month so that run can be ignored. He’s better judged on both his previous win on Newmarket’s July Course and the fact that he has gone close off this BHA mark of 90 before. A quick horse, he should be an uncomplicated ride for whoever gets the leg up.
In terms of jockeys, take note of the mounts of Mirai Iwata. He is one of three debutants on the Asia team but has the advantage of having been based with William Haggas for a while (during which time he has also ridden once at Ascot). The 25-year-old, who picked up his first Group 1 win on Arma Veloce in the 2024 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, is the son of Melbourne Cup-winning rider Yasunari Iwata.
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