Our resident experts are back to tackle this weekend's feature action from Ascot, Haydock and Punchestown.
How serious a threat is Protektorat to Bravemansgame in the Betfair Chase?
Matt Brocklebank: Bravemansgame has enough in hand over Protektorat in pure class terms to suggest he can win the Betfair Chase without much fuss and while Haydock is something of a specialist venue and the Skelton horse bolted up in this last year, you’ve got to remember that the odds-on A Plus Tard was pulled-up that day and he ended up having Eldorado Allen and Frodon to beat. Perhaps I’d be of a different view if they were both coming here fresh, but Bravemansgame shaped like he needed the Wetherby outing quite badly and he won the King George in great style on his second run last season. I couldn’t back Corach Rambler with Monopoly money this time of year but can’t completely rule out a big effort from Royale Pagaille, who is another who seems to really like running around Haydock, although they’d surely have wanted a deluge of rain for him ideally.
Tony McFadden: Dan Skelton's team haven't been operating at their usual high strike-rate this autumn, but this will have been Protektorat's long-term aim and I'd still expect him to be ready to launch a bold defence of his crown. He was an impressive 11-length winner of this race on his return last season and while Bravemansgame ran to a higher level when winning the King George and runner-up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup - he's 5 lb clear on Timeform's figures - it doesn't allow much margin for error.
Ben Linfoot: He’s a threat and I think the market has got it about right at 15/8. If he drifts towards 3/1 I’d be interested as he was very good in this race last year on the back of wind surgery and the difference between them in the Cheltenham Gold Cup – eight-and-a-quarter lengths in Bravemansgame’s favour – looks likely to be eradicated to some degree over this track and trip. Paul Nicholls’ horse shaped like he needed the run at Wetherby, so he looks primed and ready and he’s understandably an odds-on shot. Dan Skelton isn’t operating at the sort of strike-rate he’s used to at this time of year, which is on my mind with Protektorat, but if the market overcompensates for that I could just be tempted.
What are you hoping to see from Shishkin in the Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase at Ascot?
TM: Shishkin saw out the trip thoroughly when winning the Aintree Bowl over three miles and a furlong on his final outing last season and his big targets this term are likely to be in the staying division. However, he still showed top-class form when bolting up over this course and distance in the Ascot Chase, running to a level that places him 13 lb clear of Pic d'Orhy on Timeform's figures. If he races with zest - something he didn't do when beaten in the Tingle Creek and Ryanair last season - he ought to prove too good and set himself up for some big Grade 1 targets later in the campaign. The application of cheekpieces for the first time could help keep him sharp.
MB: A loaded question if ever there was one. It was fascinating to hear Ruby Walsh’s take on Shishkin in the opening edition of RTV’s Road to Cheltenham series as he’s still not completely convinced about this horse, and I’d be inclined to tread with caution as well. I know Nicky Henderson will have him ready (the bruising Altior v Cyrname race won’t be forgotten in a hurry) but Pic D’Orhy is the slightly younger of the two and if there’s one on the up and another potentially on the decline I know which way I’d be betting. I’ll resist backing either here but it’s a borderline unmissable Saturday clash for me and that’s something to be celebrated.
BL: Shishkin is a wonderful horse to watch, talk and write about and the older he gets the more he seems to split opinion. I personally feel he has enormous potential over three-mile trips this season, particularly in the King George, and this looks the perfect stepping stone for him. Main rival Pic D’Orhy was 16 lengths behind him over this track and trip in the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase in February and given that was the eight-year-old’s 14th start he doesn’t look too likely to eat into that deficit unless Nicky Henderson’s horse has regressed/is below his best. To answer the question more directly; a dominant performance.
Could you put anyone off the Flooring Porter – State Man double at Punchestown?
BL: Not really. State Man looks skinny but bombproof and Punchestown punters will be doubling him with all sorts in a bid to turn a profit on Saturday afternoon. Gavin Cromwell can be grateful that Willie Mullins has decided to bypass the Grade 2 Liam & Valerie Brennan Florida Pearl Novice Chase for the fourth successive season as that makes it an immediately more winnable race, for all that some interesting novice chasers have turned up. Churchstonewarrior is arguably the form pick, Sandor Clegane can improve significantly over this trip and Favori De Champdou can reverse form with Affordale Fury, but Flooring Porter has a class edge on all of these on his hurdling form. After his Cheltenham novice chase win was boosted by Broadway Boy last weekend he looks an exciting horse in this division and I wouldn’t hold his sole Punchestown hurdles defeat against him.
TM: It's very difficult to oppose State Man who won all four starts in Grade 1 company in Ireland last season and suffered his only defeat of the campaign when coming up against the imperious Constitution Hill at Cheltenham. Flooring Porter looks more vulnerable, though. He was a very smart hurdler and made a pleasing start to his chasing career at Cheltenham, comfortably beating Broadway Bob who was a wide-margin winner back at that venue last week. However, Flooring Porter’s jumping wasn't seriously tested in that steadily-run four-runner affair and he is likely to find things tougher at Punchestown against a rival in Churchstonewarrior, who has plenty of experience under his belt, and some promising chasing types in Affordale Fury and Sandor Clegane.
MB: Well, State Man is going to win so if you’re desperate to cheer him on for some sort of financial gain then it probably is best to look for another with whom you can double him up. Flooring Porter is an interesting one as he’s clearly a class act and jumped pretty well first time out at Cheltenham, but he hung badly and was pulled-up on his last visit to Punchestown and he’s been kept to left-handed tracks ever since. He has won this way around in his younger days but, above all that, I’d be a bit wary about the quality of opposition here. I’ve loved Sandor Clegane since day one and would love to see Paul Nolan with another top-notch chaser, while none of the others can be ruled out with absolute confidence either. So look elsewhere for the double would be my advice!
Can you give us a horse to watch out for in one of the handicaps at Ascot or Haydock?
MB: Mentioning horses on a Thursday can be dangerous and I’d hate to be accused of putting anyone away if this suggestion doesn’t make the final cut in Friday’s Value Bet, but FRERE D'ARMES is 13/2 at the time of writing for the valuable two-mile handicap chase at Ascot and that looks more than fair to me. He caught the eye with the way he travelled before flattening out to finish fifth behind the reopposing Boothill in a similar event here earlier in the month and should be sharper for the outing, both physically and mentally as it was just his fifth start over fences. He’s down 2lb and has Tristan Durrell taking off an extra 5lb in the saddle, while any further drying of the ground should bring him right into the equation too. Dan Skelton has come close to winning this a couple of times and Frere D’Armes looks to have been teed up beautifully for it.
TM: It's nearly three years since CHEDDLETON last won but he's largely performed with credit in that time and he has been given a big chance by the handicapper ahead of his return to chasing in the two-mile handicap at Haydock (12:40). He shaped as if retaining plenty of ability when fourth back over hurdles at Carlisle a few weeks ago and he is able to compete here off a 4 lb lower mark than when runner-up in the Castleford Chase last season despite returning lame.
BL: I highlighted the record of Anthony Honeyball in mares’ handicap hurdles the other week when Good Look Charm won and as a reminder it now stands at 32 winners from 116 runners at 27.59% which is pretty staggering. Last year he won the Restorations UK Mares’ Handicap Hurdle at Ascot with Coquelicot and he’s got an interesting representative again this year in FORTUNA LIGNA who gets weight from everything from a lowly rating of 108. She has untapped potential over three miles having tried it for the first time when second at Chepstow last time out, a good run where she beat a well-fancied previous course winner in Jasmiwa by 10 lengths. She improved for her first run last season and the blinkers, which she was sporting for her sole career victory, return this weekend.
And what about one to watch on the all-weather?
TM: STAR OF LADY M is on a long losing run that stretches back to July of last year but she has fallen a long way in the weights and was only narrowly denied when runner-up on a rare start over six furlongs at Wolverhampton last week, losing out by just a nose after racing closer to the pace than ideal in a strongly-run race. She remains well treated on some of the form she showed off much higher marks in the summer and the booking of Oisin Murphy for the first time is an obvious positive. She looks to hold good claims in the six-furlong handicap (15:30) at Lingfield on Saturday.
MB: Oisin Murphy has a really strong book of rides at Lingfield on Saturday and his best chance could be STAR OF LADY M in the lucky last. She’s yet to win at six furlongs but has only had a couple of goes and went extremely close over this trip at Wolverhampton last Friday. She runs off just 1lb higher here and remains seriously well-treated on the pick of her turf form, while stall three should allow her rider the perfect opportunity to pick up an ideal box-seat slot through the early stages.
BL: Keep an eye out for WHITELEY WAY in the BetMGM: It’s Showtime Nursery Handicap at Wolverhampton (7.45) on Saturday evening. There are a couple of angles with this filly. Firstly, the trip, as she has been running over six furlongs or thereabouts and judging by how keen she was at Kempton last time she’s well worth a chance dropping to five. Secondly, William Pyle takes 5lb off her and Roger Teal is three from eight with his Wolverhampton nursery runners at this time of year (October to December), winning with 5/2, 6/1 and 7/1 chances.
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