Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

There was plenty of good – if not top quality - action last week but the performance of the past few days over jumps as I saw it came not from a horse but from top jockey Rachael Blackmore at Navan on Sunday.

Dusting herself down from three falls in succession over fences at Naas on Saturday on her final three rides, Ireland’s outstanding female rider made her opening mount at Navan on Sunday a winning one when judging the pace to a nicety to run down the long-time clear leader after the last and then brought up a double with a flawless round of front-running craftmanship on the high-class if occasionally underachieving chaser Captain Guinness. Superb to watch, and great to know she’ll in town at Haydock this Saturday on A Plus Tard in the Betfair Chase.

I might as well start this review with Captain Guinness as he posted the best timefigure of the week (158) and a career-best one at that when getting the better of the Sporting Life Arkle fifth Riviere D’Etel in the Grade 2 Fortria Chase. His task might have been made easier by the late defection of my idea of the next Champion Chase winner Ferny Hollow because underfoot conditions were deemed to be too fast, and an error two out from Riviere D’Etel (146 timefigure, 5lb below her best from last season) left him with really the only final fence to jump to secure victory, but all the same he looked more foot-assured than he often has under a controlling yet high-octane ride.

The Fortria was one of two Grade 2 events on the card with the other being the Railway Bar Lismullen Hurdle which saw the keenly-awaited reappearance of the 2021 Ballymore winner Bob Olinger. Back over hurdles after such a promising start over fences last season, Bob Olinger seemingly had plenty in his favour in receipt of 9lb from the dual Stayers’ Hurdle winner Flooring Porter as well as 5lb from last seasons’ Irish Champion Hurdle runner-up Zanahiyr but even Rachael Blackmore’s best efforts couldn’t persuade him to put the race to bed after travelling strongly into the lead and trading as low as 1.02 in running.

Whether that was because he needed the run at the end of an attritional race - the winner Home By The Lee came home slowest of the five winners over hurdles form two out – or because the issue responsible for his tame finishes on his last two starts last season still remains (his head carriage and action after the last second last left something to be desired) will become clearer next time.

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The opinions I read afterwards on social media suggesting he’ll be better for a step up to three miles over hurdles seem wide of the mark to me (Home By The Lee, who was comfortably held in last season’s Stayers, would outstay him even more easily over an extra half mile) and I can’t see a race at the Cheltenham Festival right now for Bob Olinger, even I could recommend backing him this far out which I can’t either. Zanahiyr looks another to be wary of going forward.

A last-flight faller at Aintree when last seen, he jumped shoddily to say the least and whether he’s capable any longer of reproducing his best timefigure (157 in last season’s Matheson behind Sharjah) I’m not sure. Flooring Porter presumably needed this to put him straight and will most likely be a different proposition in the spring, and the 163 timefigure he posted when winning the first of his two Stayers Hurdle in 2020 when he was the youngest member of the field still sets the standard among the long-distance hurdlers, nearly all of whom are a veteran bunch.

Earlier in the afternoon Riviere D’Etel’s stable-companion Hollow Games had won a well-contested beginners chase (ran a slower final circuit than Captain Guinness but came home faster form three out) and Hercule du Seuil secured the Grade 3 auction hurdle. The latter was the more impressive of the pair in following up his wide-margin Tipperary win in a 137 timefigure, though the third Three Card Brag once again left the impression he’s crying out for further already.

The previous day in Ireland at Naas, the Poplar Square Chase had seen the reappearance of Gentleman Du Mee, last seen lowering the colours of Sporting Life Arkle winner Edwardstone – and fairly so according to that horse's trainer Alan King – in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree.

The market expected that he would get make it four wins on the trot, but he was already beaten when headed between the last two fences and a last-fence unseat combined with a last fence fall for last year’s Arkle seventh Coeur Sublime left the way clear for the still progressive Jeremy’s Flame to come home alone in a reasonable 148 timefigure. Mersey Novices’ Hurdle winner Three Stripe Life made a successful transition to fences on the same card, left clear two out after Grand Jury suffered a fatal fall.

Capable of running a 143 last season. Three Stripe Life ran ‘only’ a 105 here but there was a good deal of guesswork involved in the returning of his time rating at the end of a steadily-run race, not least where the distance of the race is concerned which was clearly run over a furlong further than advertised and possibly a bit more. The feature hurdle on the card went to last season’s Fred Winter winner Brazil who’d been no match for the impressive Champ Kiely on his return at Tipperary.

Despite a steady pace resulting in a 106 timefigure, Brazil still came home from 3 out around a second slower (as well as from 2 out and the final flight as well) than the winner of the opening maiden hurdle Ashroe Diamond despite carrying 6lb less. It’s hard to believe he’s any better than a good-level handicapper despite this being a Grade 3, and the result didn’t reflect much gloss on last year’s Triumph runner-up Fil D’Or either, even though he was conceding 9lb.

So, if there weren’t too many Festival clues in Ireland last weekend, other than perhaps Ashroe Diamond for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle, what about Cheltenham’s November meeting?

I’d say even more unlikely. Amarillo Sky took the honours on the opening day of the three-day meeting (in common with several Festivals on the Flat of late, at least one day too long in my opinion) but a 142 timefigure dominating a weaker race than he had been in on his last two starts last season at a fixture front runners always do well at doesn’t really say anything new about him.

Hermes Allen followed up his easy Stratford win in the Grade 2 Ballymore (Hyde) Novices’ Hurdle. He won impressively on the face of things but a 120 timefigure and a finish from 3 out not materially faster than the much inferior Contrapposto managed (albeit over shorter) in the last race suggests that, on the clock at least, he’s not one I’d be going overboard about, unlike the handicappers at the BHA who have given him a rating of 142.

Banbridge was very fluent at his fences in Saturday’s Grade 2 Arkle Trial and made light work of top-level handicapper Tommy’s Oscar (who seemed to find these fences causing him more problems than those at Carlisle) in a 150 timefigure.

Banbridge clearly wasn’t himself when down the field in the Grade 1 Sefton at Aintree after winning the Martin Pipe (had Hollow Games close behind in third) at the Festival, but that he could run to this level back at the minimum trip augurs well for when he’s put back up to two and a half miles as he surely will be.

The feature event, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, went to Ga Law in a 138 timefigure after he clawed back the progressive French Dynamite after the last. I gave Ga Law a good write-up in this column after his reappearance and as I see his career going forward, he’ll be better off at three miles as he has been very strong at the finish in each of his last two races.

A 4lb rise ought not to stop him winning another handicap. His win prompted some speculation on social media afterwards that Hitman, who conceded him 17lb and beat him just over a length in the Old Roan, was consequently a solid bet at 16/1 (now 12/1 after the defection of Allaho) for the King George.

I’m not sure things are that straightforward and don’t think there’s anywhere near as much between them as that Old Roan result might suggest. Ga Law was having his reappearance that day, ridden more conservatively than usual and came home from each of the last four fences faster than the slightly hesitant Hitman who was returning on the back of yet another wind operation. Whatever, we should find out a bit more about Hitman if he runs at Ascot this weekend.

Nube Negra showed his well-being if no more in a spin round in the Shloer Chase, a race he won in a 5lb faster timefigure (138) in 2021, leaving the best performance on the clock on Sunday to fall to I Like To Move It. His win mostly from the front in a 146 timefigure was a laudable effort for all several horses were compromised by three of the hurdles being omitted, but the race was far more weakly-contested than it has been in recent seasons.

To illustrate how far the race has fallen, back in 2017 Elgin won the race off a BHA mark of 145 while carrying 10-08; I Like To Move It raced off a mark of 142 and carried 12-00. Results of races run when low sun leads to omitted obstacles are always questionable, even if the missing hurdles have been accounted for in the timefigures, and on the clock it’s hard to think I Like To Move It is anything other than a handicapper right now, albeit it a very good one.

There was some movement in the market for the JCB Triumph Hurdle last week after Zarak The Brave scored at Fairyhouse and Mctigue flopped at Auteuil. The pushing out of the latter to 33/1 seems an overreaction to me, even if his pre-race odds were short enough, seeing as his rider elected bizarrely to stay on the chewed-up far rail in the straight given he had come up the stand rail when winning at the track a few weeks before.

Zarak The Brave posted a solid 126 timefigure at Fairyhouse and a 10lb Timeform upgrade takes that overall time rating to 136. To give those figures more credence, he came home from three out and two out faster than the smart Eric Bloodaxe, no mean feat considering that horse won a Grade 2 last year and won what turned out to be a little more than a sprint.

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