Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

The cold snap ensured that as many meetings over jumps ended up being cancelled in Britain last week as took place and it wasn’t until Kempton on Saturday that we got a properly meaningful card, headed by the Coral-sponsored Silviniaco Conti Chase.

Even then, it’s a reflection of its relevance going forward that it was won not by the promising Kalif du Berlais, who sadly suffered a fatal injury at the ninth fence, but by Edwardstone, the one-time top-class two miler but nowadays reduced to making up the numbers in the Graded chases he still plies his trade in as best he can in.

Remarkably getting weight from all his rivals, Edwardstone rallied well after getting caught flat footed but a 117 effort on the clock is testament to the muddling gallop that ensued after the front-running Kalif du Berlais exited the race and arguably the result doesn’t do much for the reputation of runner-up Master Chewy or third-placed Boombawn, neither of whom like Edwardstone have even managed to win in a handicap since the start of the 2024-25 season.

Indeed, the tracking data showed that despite running the first 12 furlongs or so on around 12 lengths slower than the Timeform-138 rated Lookaway managed over the same trip earlier in the card, Edwardstone only just managed a faster time over the final two furlongs as well as the last half mile.

His trainer Alan King had earlier won the opening novice hurdle with Baron Noir, a horse who got the better of current Sky Bet Supreme favourite El Cairos in one of the bumpers at the Punchestown Festival last spring and whose only reverse over hurdles since had come at the hands of the unbeaten Cristal d’Estruval at Warwick in November.

That was an ordinarily-run race in which the winner had dictated and Baron Noir had made hard work of getting off the mark himself faced with a similar scenario at Uttoxeter next time, albeit the runner-up then Bobby’s Nelson has won since.

But ridden closer up here behind a stronger pace he looked an improved animal despite still taking a strong hold, passing the post two-and-a-half lengths in front in a 124 timefigure which, incidentally, is 10lb below the level that Edwardstone had achieved over hurdles before his never-dangerous sixth in the Supreme back in 2020.

The juvenile hurdle that had been won last year by Kalif du Berlais went this time to Dan Skelton’s French import Precious Man; the clear form pick and long odds on having finished second to One Horse Town on his British debut.

He improved on that form but didn’t achieve much on the clock, scoring in 110 on the back of a slower opening mile-and-a-half and then slower final half mile than Baron Noir.

Easily the fastest last four furlongs of the day over hurdles, over a second-and-a-half faster than Baron Noir, or getting on for eight lengths – was registered by Iberico Lord in the Lanzarote.

Belatedly stepped up to his longest trip yet at the age of eight, Iberico Lord responded with his best performance since landing the Betfair Hurdle back in 2024 easily off a mark of 134, just 2lb lower than he ran off here, a performance that earned him a shot next time out at the Champion Hurdle.

Despite being forced widest of all around Kempton’s tight final bend at the hottest point of the race, he stuck on very strongly to post a 140 timefigure, just 3lb lower than in the Betfair Hurdle. His revised official mark of 144 has twice found him out before, however.

There wasn’t any racing in Ireland last week until Clonmel on Thursday and it was a low-key card featuring five hurdles and two chases on heavy ground and it didn’t reveal much of interest on the clock with the leading timefigure on the day being the ordinary 112 posted by the Gordon Elliott-trained odds-on favourite Santo Sospir in the feature Munster Hurdle.

The last two winners of the Munster Hurdle, Beckett Rock and Gaelic Warrior, both went on to run at Cheltenham two months later, the former finishing sixth in the Coral Cup and the latter second in the Baring Bingham, but Santo Sospir doesn’t quite look up to their standard yet, even getting outrun on the day in the final furlong according to the tracking data by King Of Aces who won the maiden hurdle an hour later carrying 3lb more, a horse who had started a big price for both his points in Ireland finishing six lengths runner-up on the second occasion.

How strong was Grade One novice at Naas?

Thankfully, there was a better-quality card at Naas the following day featuring the Grade 1 Ballymore Novice Hurdle, formerly known as the Lawlor’s Of Naas and which has an impeccable history as a Cheltenham guide having been won in recent seasons by Baring Bingham winners Envoi Allen and Bob Olinger as well as Bingham second and third The Yellow Clay and Champ Kiely, not forgetting Ginto who was still travelling supremely well and would surely have taken all the beating had he not suffered a career-ending approaching the final flight in the Albert Bartlett.

That roll of honour suggests we should take the form of this year’s contest, in which the only Graded winner in the field I’ll Sort That beat the favourite Sortudo with 13 lengths back to the third, very seriously but the omission of the flights in the straight because of low sun and a less than end-to-end gallop dictated by the eventual winner makes this renewal (timefigure 133) resemble much more the one Champ Kiely won in a 134 timefigure in 2024 than the ones The Yellow Clay won in 144, Bob Olinger won in 143 and both Ginto and Envoi Allen won in 141.

Sortudo had caught my attention in the Champion Bumper last year, a race contested by several horses prominent right at the top of the ante-post markets for the novice hurdles at Cheltenham, because of the wider route both he and stablemate Bambino Fever took relative to the other horses concerned in the finish that day, but I’m not sure I’m any keener on his Baring Bingham chances now (even if Paul Townend were to ride him, which oddly he hasn’t yet) than I was before the race and drying ground at a fast-draining Cheltenham probably wouldn’t be in his favour either.

I’ll Sort That achieved more on the clock (141) in his Graded win at Navan in November and is versatile with regards to trip clearly but is another who’d have a question to answer on spring ground.

When the ground is as testing as it was at Naas and the first race of the day is contested by 25 runners, there has to be an element of ground deterioration built into any timefigures returned but even allowing for that I was impressed by the figures posted by Mullins' Future Prospect in the opening maiden hurdle.

As in the Ballymore, the flights in the straight were omitted, the race was contested over four furlongs less and the winner carried 5lb less, but the tracking data showed she ran the penultimate furlong 1.34 seconds faster than I’ll Sort That (around seven lengths) and the final furlong 1.66 seconds (around eight lengths) quicker and that too after running the distance to the mile marker (assuming the official race distances were correct) at an average 0.25 seconds per furlong (around a length) faster than I’ll Sort That did in the Ballymore.

Enthusiasm for her prospects might be tempered by the fact she didn’t go on after her debut last year (she won well enough on her first start to ensure she was sent off favourite well ahead of stablemate Bambino Fever in the Deep Run Mares Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival) but Paul Townend rode her for the first time at Naas having had a tendency to pull hard for Patrick Mullins last season and it was interesting to read him report afterwards that she settled much better once she met her first hurdle and that was likely the cause of her problems in bumpers.

25/1 for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle looks a fair price to me.

Anyone who keeps tabs on horseracing social media will probably be as bored as I am of the constant pedestalling of the latest Willie Mullins novice hurdle winner as ‘the one’ for the Supreme and the latest horse to occupy that lofty perch, for the moment at least, is Sober who won the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday.

Won three seasons previously by subsequent Baring Bingham winner Impaire Et Passe, the latest renewal attracted just three runners and was insignificant as a time trial (timefigure 124) given the pace to four furlongs out was slower than in the following maiden hurdle won by the seven-year-old I Started A Joke.

Anyone familiar with either the point-to-point or Rules form of the runner-up Road Exile (who’d beaten I Started A Joke nearly 12 lengths at Navan on their previous starts) will know full well he’s not a two-miler, let alone a slowly-run two miler, and not be surprised that a horse good enough to have won Group events on the Flat in his time with Andre Fabre should have far too much speed for him in a sprint finish.

The horse who’d won the race I Started A Joke had won the year before, Kappa Jy Pyke, was also in action in the Grade 3 Sky Bet Super Sub Novice Chase over almost two-and-a-half miles. He ended up having too much finishing speed for his rivals – ran the last half mile in under a minute according to the tracking data – in a modestly-run race (timefigure 127) against a few horses below top grade who might be kindly described as strong stayers at the trip, so exactly what his current level of ability is having scraped home from the subsequently disappointing Salvator Mundo in his chasing debut at easy-to-jump Thurles is hard to pin down right now.

Even so, he’s clearly better over fences than hurdles despite his size and open to further improvement.

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