Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Awarded Grade 1 status in 1990 and still the first top-level event of the National Hunt season domestically for the best staying hurdlers, the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot has unsurprisingly been a fair pointer to the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival with Barracouda, My Way de Solzen and Big Buck’s winning the event five times between them in the space of a golden ten-year period around the start of the millennium.

Cheltenham success has been harder to come by since then, admittedly, with only Thistlecrack and Paisley Park managing the double, while the winner of the race in each of the last two seasons, Crambo, who was back again to try and make it three in a row, hadn’t done any better than ninth in his first attempt and then crashed out at the sixth in his second.

Whether that nasty tumble has left its mark must be highly likely given his shadow-of-previous-self form since, including here, and he’d have to be considered a long shot should he make it back to the Stayers’ next March.

On the contrary, the winner this year, Impose Toi, runner-up Strong Leader and third-placed Honesty Policy all have the potential to be involved, for all it seems significant that Strong Leader has missed Cheltenham in the last two seasons to focus instead on the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree which he won in 2024 and was second earlier this year.

Crambo arguably never got near his Long Walk form away from Ascot, but Impose Toi has already shown himself much more versatile, winning at Newbury and Aintree besides Ascot in the last 12 months as well as running cracking races in defeat at Cheltenham and Punchestown, all in races anywhere between two and a half miles and an extended three miles and either run at a crawl (his Newbury win in November in the slowly-run Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle was achieved in a timefigure of just 75) or at an end-to-end gallop.

His ability to turn on the turbo at the end of a steadily-run contest served him well in the Long Walk, where his winning timefigure was just 126, but the likelihood is he’ll face a more demanding test of stamina in the Stayers’ which since Timeform first started returning timefigures over jumps has only twice been run at what could be considered a steady gallop.

That said, he got to the front easily at Ascot before idling in front, suggesting he’s probably got more improvement in him, particularly if the cheekpieces he wore for the first time in the Coral Cup last season and which he hasn’t worn in the current campaign, get called into action again.

Honesty Policy almost certainly has more improvement in him too. He was having his first run since chasing home Jasmine de Vaux in the three-mile Grade 1 novice at Punchestown in April and was keeping on again at the finish having found himself a bit a tapped for toe between the last two hurdles by the race-fit first two.

Sectionals show that he ran the fastest last furlong of all in the race and had the measure using that same metric over Strong Leader from any of two furlongs out, four furlongs out and a mile from home. This was only his sixth run over hurdles and second at three miles so he is still relatively unexposed.

Half an hour later, another horse who had been successful in the same race at the fixture in the last two seasons, Victtorino, was also going for the hat-trick but like Crambo came up short.

Whether that’s because he isn’t quite the force of old or his presence back in fifth means this year’s race represents very strong form remains to be seen, but while it’s been clear his stable haven’t been running anywhere near as hot as they usually do at this time of year, the race was well contested and run at a decent enough gallop to ensure there was no hiding place.

That said, on ground that like that up at Haydock and at last week’s big Saturday meeting at Cheltenham, wasn’t anywhere near as testing as it has been in some recent years, or even as soft as the official going description would have us believe, Deep Cave’s winning effort in a 127 timefigure which he secured with a strong run from the final fence to lead close home, is worth viewing favourably and he’ll surely do even better when sent over long distances as he inevitable will be given his stable.

That said, both Victtorino and third-placed Johnnywho ran the final furlong faster, particularly Johnnywho who should probably have won and surely has his name on a big handicap chase (second in the Kim Muir last year off a 5lb lower mark than here when tanking along and leading on the bridle approaching the second last).

Iroko underlines National claims

Another horse who surely has his name on a big handicap - indeed, he’s clear favourite for the 2026 Grand National – is Iroko who was also in action at Ascot on Saturday and beat Firefox comfortably in the graduation chase that kicked off the card.

For a three-runner event it was well run – Iroko’s winning timefigure was 142, 10lb lower than his best so far which was achieved over a much more suitable three miles, and he was never more impressive than on the run-in where he left recent Down Royal winner Firefox for dead after the last.

Whether this is a boost for The Jukebox Man’s chances in the King George on Boxing Day given how slowly run (winning timefigure just 60) that race, in which the winner established a very easy lead in front, is hard to know; for what it’s worth, I’m more inclined to see it as a boost for Iroko’s National prospects, though he’ll have to contend with a higher mark now the cat’s out of the bag a bit more (gone up 4lb to 155 in the latest weekly revisions).

The previous day’s Ascot card had featured the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase which looked interesting on paper featuring plenty open to improvement. It ended up being run at a steady pace – the winning timefigure was just 123 – yet despite that the winner Steel Ally who had beaten Unexpected Party in a graduation chase up at Carlisle proved far to strong once into the straight, opening up a nine-length advantage between him and the runner-up Push The Button.

The concluding listed bumper looked a strong affair with 11 of the 15-strong field having won before and was run at an unusually fast lick too. Despite the opposition, the highly-regarded Bass Hunter, a wide-margin winner at Newbury on his previous start, was sent off a very strong favourite and might have achieved even more than the smart level he did (timefigure 110, the best in bumpers either side of the Irish Sea this season) had he not gone so hard through the middle of the race, covering the first mile and a half at least four lengths faster than anything else yet still managing to run the next two furlongs just about quickest of all as well.

He won his Irish point in a time around 6m 40 secs, so won’t be found lacking when going up in trip.

Up at Haydock, the feature Betfred-sponsored Tommy Whittle went to the six-year-old Grand Geste who became the latest in an increasingly long list of winners this season to score in a well-endowed handicap from out of weights and in doing so not only landed his first win of any description but also some tidy bets too with the cheekpieces on for the first time this season.

It’s fair to say he had the run of the race from the front setting a steady pace – his timefigure was just 71 – but even so he ran the last four furlongs getting on for eight lengths faster than any of his rivals, so race positioning almost certainly didn’t have any overbearing influence.

The listed mares’ hurdle went to Supreme Malinas but with the first three well bunched and the time a slow one this doesn’t look form to be getting carried away with.

Warrior hard to beat in King George

I mentioned The Jukebox Man earlier and he is one of nine entries for the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase. I also wrote several good words (or, more accurately, paragraphs) about Jango Baie in this column a couple of weeks ago and respect his chance greatly , not least in the expectation that a step up to three miles will bring about further improvement.

The reality is, however, that Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior set a very tall standard on time and with news coming out that Il Est Francais is supposedly back to his best again (or at least reports of his homework suggest he is) and Harry Cobden is set for the ride we can expect to see him revert to the forcing tactics which have served him well round here in the past and that if nothing else ought to ensure a well-run race.

That might just find out Fact To File whose best form is at two-and-a-half miles and if the race pans out as I expect it to, Gaelic Warrior who doesn’t have to front run as he did last time promises to be very difficult to beat.

The Christmas Hurdle will pass without Constitution Hill but his trainer Nicky Henderson has an excellent replacement in the shape of Sir Gino who is being switched back to the smaller obstacles and looks the one to beat given he ran a 159 on the clock at this meeting last year, a level none of the others have come close to reaching.

Kitzbuhel has the best claims by some way on time in the Kauto Star, but was well held on his only start at three miles. Skylight Hustle has swerved a clash with Mydaddypaddy in the Formby at Aintree and heads to the Paddy Power Future Champions at Leopardstown on the 27th where Love Me Tender, Talk The Talk and Koktail Brut have all shown a bit more on the clock.

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