Check out the latest Watch And Learn column

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Tue September 02, 2025 · 4M ago

Unlike other weekends in the Flat calendar, the last week of August seldom catches the imagination, but in and amongst the lower-level elite fare on offer the Group 3 Solario Stakes, sponsored this year by BetMGM, has delivered as often as not.

Its winners in the last ten years include Derby winner Masar, the Sussex Stakes and Prix Jean Prat winner Too Darn Hot and the Irish 2000 Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes winner Field Of Gold, not forgetting, of course, maiden and novice hurdle winner Reach For The Moon.

The latest renewal was expected to provide the next test for the promising Publish, who’d got himself in all sorts of trouble in a small-field contest on his debut before going one better under a contrasting no-nonsense ride from the front next time out, but eighteen millimetres of rain that fell the day before, according to the course’s BHA feed, led to him being pulled out on account of the expected going, perhaps a little surprising given he’d coped fine with ground Timeform had called good to soft the day he won.

That left six runners, the first four of whom were covered by barely a cigarette paper at the finish making it the tightest finish to a listed or pattern race in the last ten years, narrowly surpassing the 2024 Hungerford Stakes where the first four were separated by a nose, a short-head and a neck.

Exciting finish it may have been for those who like their finishes to be close and undecided until the last few moments, but when the first four horses finish so close together at the end of a well-run race the usual takeaway nearly always confirmed by subsequent events is that none of them are anything out of the ordinary for the level, so it was something of a surprise to read that trade paper Racing Post rated the race one of the strongest juvenile races of the season with the winner A Bit of Spirit given a rating of 109 which is their joint-second highest performance by a juvenile in Britain or Ireland this season behind only Power Blue who won the Phoenix Stakes.

Unlimited Replays

of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays

Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits Sporting Life Plus - Join For Free

In contrast, Timeform’s best juvenile performance in Britain and Ireland remains Gstaad’s win in the Coventry Stakes, besides which there have been another fourteen performances rated higher than the 105 figure (same as the timefigure) Timeform awarded A Bit Of Spirit. After all, race standards suggest a figure of 104 is a maximum while A Bit Of Spirit had already been beaten in his two ventures into listed company before the Solario, going down by a head to Time To Turn in the Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot and four lengths to Publish’s stable-companion Morris Dancer in the Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury, while promoted second-placed Humidity had finished seventh in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood when last seen albeit with a possible excuse on account of the track.

If there is a good prospect in the race it might be fourth-placed Pacific Avenue who started favourite having won on his debut at Newmarket where he’d beaten the horse that went on to finish third in the Superlative Stakes, Wild Desert, and managed to come from last to first before that effort told on the sticky ground well inside the final furlong. That said, sectional upgrades earned by any of the first four were pretty much identical too and this looks an ordinary renewal.

All roads lead to London

Earlier in the day there were a couple of contests that look far better form, starting with the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes over a mile. The race was well run with the winner Lady Of Spain posting a 108 timefigure and the runner-up Blue Bolt a 107 timefigure as they pulled four lengths clear of the remainder, with Oak Tree third Bright Thunder faring much the best of the horses who forced the strong pace, still in front on the bridle and seemingly travelling well within herself still with two furlongs to run but unsurprisingly running out of steam late on.

Both the first two came into the race on the back of winning runs; Lady Of Spain had won all her first four races, albeit not having run since Deauville the previous December where she’d turned a sixteen-runner listed contest into a bit of a procession, while Blue Bolt had won her previous three races including a listed event over course and distance in July. Both look worth keeping onside for the remainder of the season.

The other performance of note on the card came from Saddadd in the feature handicap. One of two three-year-olds in the line-up (the other finished third) Saddadd was having his first run since the London Gold Cup, a race that had thrown up three previous next-time-out winners, and he became the fourth, not needing to improve upon the 105 timefigure he recorded at Newbury but showing a good versatility with regards to underfoot conditions by overcoming a 6lb rise in his handicap mark.

A close relative to the top-class soft-ground mile and a quarter performer Almaqam, he’s not far off that level himself now – around 10lb, according to Timeform ratings - and he’s a banker for a Group race some time soon.

Red Letter impressed at the Curragh

Letter delivers on promise

There was plenty of Group action across at the Curragh where the best performance among the trio of pattern contests came from Red Letter in the Snow Fairy Fillies Stakes.

On a day when there was a strong headwind, the nine-furlong distance took some getting considering the unrelenting tempo at which the race was run and the Juddmonte filly, in the care of Ger Lyons, clearly relished her first attempt at it as her previous runs had suggested she would, never stronger than at the finish to score by a length and a half from British raider Sand Gazelle who was backing up her recent win in a listed race at York. Both fillies are by Frankel but different sorts physically, Red Letter being much the more imposing of the pair, and though she’s out of a mare who was a winner over six furlongs as a two-year-old she looks certain to make a chunk more progress upped to a mile and a quarter.

The first of the two pattern races for juveniles, the European Breeders Fund Stakes over a mile, went to Queen of Hawaii in a modest 64 timefigure. As the figure suggests, the pace wasn’t strong, lifting markedly early in the straight to such an extent that the fourth horse home La Fogata dropped back many lengths off the pack in last place only to storm home on the rising ground with the fastest reported final furlong, so nearly snatching third.

That effort suggested the contest was a muddling one, not least as the hot favourite Sugar Island beat only one home, and the ‘one to take out of the race’ as media analysts are so keen to say is probably runner-up Moments Of Joy who was having her first run since finishing second in the Chesham Stakes but is bred to come into her own next year.

Publican's Son impresses but treat Sky with caution

The other two-year-old Group race, the Round Tower Stakes over six furlongs, went to Moments Of Joy’s stablemate Mission Central. The timefigure wasn’t quick – just 72 – and the race also looked something of a muddling one as the winner was allowed to do his own thing out in front on the stand rail, so whether he’s quite as good as this makes him look at this stage is doubtful. That said, there was no doubting the promise shown by the runner-up The Publican’s Son on his debut.

In contrast to the winner who was very fast out of the stalls and must have had a five-length advantage over him after a dozen strides, The Publican’s Son was settled towards the rear off the pace and ended up being taken towards the centre of the track to make his effort. His finishing effort was only slightly slower than Mushaffar, a horse who had won a nineteen-runner maiden at the Curragh on his previous start, and he’s clearly got a lot of ability as his 200,000-dollar price tag at one of the American Breeze-Ups and Middle Park entry suggests. He’s the first runner in Britain or Ireland for his sire Beau Liam, a lightly raced six/seven-furlong performer in the States, and he’s already as short as 8/1 for the Middle Park.

Another youngster who made a big impression on debut earlier in the week was Into The Sky who could hardly have won any more impressively or easily in a maiden at Newbury, with his winning distance over the second-placed Dark Shore, a horse who had already run to a Timeform rating of 82, ending up being returned as seven and a half lengths.

Wide-margin wins in two-year-old races at Newbury aren’t unusual – there have been fourteen since 2015 when the winner won by further than five lengths – but not at odds of 80/1 (twelve of the other thirteen started at 5/2 or shorter) or trained by Jim Boyle who had only trained a handful of juvenile winners previously, never had one rated by Timeform higher than 85 and never had one win first time out either.

On the face of it, Into The Sky, who posted a 98 timefigure, very high for one first time out, is a very promising youngster but all the contributory factors just mentioned together with the fact that he has no forthcoming big-race entries and the straight six and a half furlongs he won over is a rarely-used or familiar distance and I’d probably encourage a degree of caution when assessing him going forwards.

Hopefully he’ll not turn out to be a flash in the pan like another two-year-old who created a very good impression while running a very high timefigure (109) first time out back in 2023 (Asadna, if you’ve forgotten his name) but if nothing else it was further evidence that his sire Starman is rapidly becoming a sire of note.

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

All roads lead to London

Letter delivers on promise

Publican's Son impresses but treat Sky with caution

More from Sporting Life

Safer gambling