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Check out Graeme North's timefigure analysis

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Wed August 20, 2025 · 4M ago

Our timefigure expert Graeme North analyses the key action from Newbury and Curragh at the weekend including the Hungerford Stakes.

On Sunday, trade paper the Racing Post asked the question ‘Is More Thunder (the Hungerford winner from the day before) a Group 1 winner in waiting? The three correspondents chosen to answer, who were presumably picked at random, were collectively of the opinion somewhere between ‘yes, he is’ and ‘yes, he might be’.

What their answers would have been without the evidence of Hungerford Stakes I’m not sure, as he had the joint-lowest official rating (103) of the ten-strong field going into that race along with the filly Fair Angellica besides being rated 5lb or more inferior officially to six of the runners with the biggest gap of all – a mighty 15lb - to the recent Group 2 Lennox winner Witness Stand.

Official ratings never have been the be all and end all, of course, and though they have come a fair way since the days of strict weights and measure interpretation, the sectional information they purport to incorporate when justified isn’t obviously being applied equally.

Take More Thunder, for example. Timeform, who have maintained a sectional database for around ten years or so now and who incorporate upgrades into their post-race performance ratings as standard, gave More Thunder just 2lb to find with Witness Stand on weight-adjusted ratings going into the Hungerford after factoring in the upgrades he was deemed worth crediting with in his previous races this season.

Certainly, the market seemed to know he was Group 2 horse in the making at the very least as, having his first start outside handicap company, he started a well-backed favourite and ended up scoring by just over two lengths in a 118 timefigure which is well up to the standard of the race, understandably so, since the latest renewal was a deep one, for all several of the runners came into the race under a bit of a cloud. That’s an effort which does indeed put him on the verge of Group 1 company.

It's fair to say that More Thunder’s status as Hungerford favourite was based not so much on his previous run when scraping home in the Bunbury Cup but on his overall profile and more particularly his effort before that, in the Wokingham, where he gave the all-the-way winner Get In a ridiculously generous head start which he failed by only a head to claw back despite his rider getting his reins in a mess, doing enough for Timeform to credit him as the clear ‘moral winner’ by a couple of lengths.

So, could we have predicted that More Thunder was a Group 2 winner in the waiting after his Wokingham win? And if we could, are there not several others with similar credentials who scored at the Royal meeting or others as well?

How do we identify a Group horse in a handicap?

The short answer is yes. For a long time, Timeform have used sectionals taken from a fixed distance away from the winning post as a starting point but as more and more granular data has come into daily use, it is becoming clearer that while a sectional upgrade is an important addition to a horse’s overall race timefigure, even more significant information can be extracted from smaller sections of the race.

After all, if the usual race sectional point is a fairly typical three furlongs out and the race doesn’t begin in earnest until two furlongs out, the general race upgrade will end up lagging behind what it ought to be; and if the winner doesn’t begin his effort until properly a furlong out his or her lag will be even greater still - unless, of course, ‘micro sectionals’ or sectionals closer to the winning post that better reflect the micro rhythms of the race are used.

I should say at this point that there are no official sectional upgrades or even an official sectional upgrade calculation. There is some calculation guidance available for free (Timeform published a guide to sectional timing which is still freely available on the internet) but that approach still requires a body of expected data (finishing pars) to which actual data (finishing speeds) has to be compared (assuming that is the approach you are taking, of course) for the upgrades to calculate and for the novice compiling that data is far from straightforward.

Timeform didn’t publish any sectionals from the straight course at the Royal meeting because of impossible camera angles, but using the data available from Total Performance Data, More Thunder arguably deserved an 8lb upgrade from the two-furlong marker and a 12lb upgrade from the furlong marker, much larger than the 5lb he deserved from three furlongs out, taking his 111 timefigure to either 120 overall (the performance rating Timeform awarded him in the Hungerford) on an average upgrade or 121 using a weighted upgrade where more weight is given to the last furlong of the race.

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Using that approach, the following horses from Royal Ascot, Goodwood or other venues could all have been identified as (ore potentially are) ‘Group horses in waiting’.

In the Hunt Cup, My Cloud merited a 9lb upgrade then a 19lb upgrade, taking his overall timerating to either 113 on average or 115 on average (current Timeform rating is 116p).

In the King George V Stakes, Merchant warranted an 18lb upgrade and a 20lb upgrade, making his overall timerating either 115 or 117 (after his Group 2 Gordon Stakes win, Timeform have him on 116p).

At ‘Glorious Goodwood’ Omni Man (25lb maximum, taking his overall timerating to 109, ignore his subsequent defeat in France where he was dropped back two furlongs in trip and ended up being forced wide and ending up with too much to do from a very wide draw, current Timeform rating 107p).

At Newmarket’s July meeting, King’s Charter (20lb maximum, 113 overall, Timeform rating currently 112p) and, earlier in the year, Gladius (32lb final furlong) at Kempton in April, 111 overall timerating backed up subsequently by an overall 107 at Goodwood, current Timeform rating 108p).

Interestingly, Gladius has an entry at York this week in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes though he is also engaged in the Sky Bet Steve Birch Finale Heritage Handicap.

More Thunder’s 118 at Newbury (no upgrades on this occasion) looks a very solid piece form with Witness Stand running a 115 on time two weeks after he posted 116 at Goodwood, which reflects well on the three-year-old Marvelman who ran a career-best 112 having previously recorded a 108 in the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket behind Cosmic Year.

There were no fireworks in the other Group race on the card, the Geoffrey Freer Stakes, which went to Queen’s Vase runner-up Furthur in a modest 70 so putting behind him an abject run in the Bahrain Trophy when he was asked to make the running, but the final race on the round course, a three-year-old handicap, produced a smart figure when Fort George came home three-and-a-half lengths clear in 103 timefigure.

Part of his improvement can probably be put down to the fact he wasn’t restricted to the exaggerated hold-up ride he was faced with at Goodwood but a look back at that run, when he was third to Best Secret and Marhaba Ghaiyyath (who was second at Newmarket to the aforementioned King’s Charter) suggest both that pair, and in particular, Best Secret are worth keeping onside too at coming meetings; indeed, Best Secret ran the last furlong a length faster than Fort George, emerged with a 2lb better upgrade on that section alone and is almost certainly a ‘ready to go’ Group 3 horse at least.

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One other performance of note at Newbury’s two-day meeting came from Bow Echo in the mile maiden on Friday. A four-and-a -alf length win translates into an 86 timefigure but last two-furlong and last furlong upgrades of 13lb suggest he’s a 100 horse give or take 1lb. I remember a certain two-year-old called Asadna making a spectacular debut for Boughey three years ago; hopefully this one goes the right way.

Across at the Curragh, the horse who is reportedly Aidan O’Brien’s leading Arc hope (surely not) Los Angeles went down to his second defeat in succession and in rather dispiriting fashion if you are already on him ante-post for Longchamp. Having been rested for a couple of months since being too close to the hot pace in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, he was given a more patient ride this time and seemed to have the field, who were taken along by Zahrann’s pacemaker Tangapour, a 300/1 shot, covered turning into the straight but he was unable to pick up and according to the tracking data couldn’t even run the last furlong any faster than Tangapour who went into the race with just an official rating of 80.

Zahrann was a horse I was keen on going into Royal Ascot, chiefly on the back of his win in the listed King George V Cup at Leopardstown where he was worth an overall timerating getting on for 110 but found the progressive and better-placed Amiloc too good for him in the King Edward VII Stakes.

Presumably the hard work he made of landing the odds-on Saturday can be put down the slowly-run scenario back in trip; after all I’ve excused Omni Man so I can excuse Zahrann too given his previously progressive profile. A mile-and-three-quarters will be a better fit for both of them.

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

How do we identify a Group horse in a handicap?

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