Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis of King George at Kempton

Gold Cup credentials

Fittingly, given the recent revelation that it might soon be dug up for housing, Kempton Park’s jewel in its jumping crown, the King George VI Chase, provided the perfect rebuttal to that unwelcome news with not only its most exciting and closest finish in 25 years but the tightest finish among the first four horses in any Grade 1 event either here or in Ireland this century, narrowly eclipsing the 2012 Lexus Chase when a head, half length and short head covered the first four.

Close finishes aren’t what the King George tends to deliver with the median distance back to the fourth horse in that extensive time frame being seventeen and a half lengths but at the end of a King George run in the what was comfortably the fastest time this century just a nose, nose and half length separated The Jukebox Man, Banbridge, Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie.

Despite the ‘record’ time the race still produced a fast finish with the finishing split from three fences out coming in at a hefty 105.3%. Finishing speeds are essentially a function of the early speed at which the race was run and the topography of the racecourse – finishing speeds are naturally much higher at Lingfield Park with its downhill finish than they are at uphill Carlisle – but a finishing speed well above 100% at a relatively flat track like Kempton Park would suggest the pace wasn’t all that demanding early in the race and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that The Jukebox Man’s winning timefigure was a relatively modest 151. That is fairly middling as far as King Georges go and 7lb slower than the 158 Banbridge posted twelve months earlier.

Amongst the leading quartet, a Gold Cup case of sorts can be made for all apart from perhaps Banbridge who might have won the 2022 Martin Pipe but has been tailed off in the Ryanair and Gold Cup on his last two visits to the Festival but it’s fair to say none of them nailed down cast-iron claims in what looks an open season.

Two from the top for Donnellys

Most years the equivalent race for novices, the Kauto Star, run over the same King George trip, is run in a slower time than the King George and not untypically this year’s winner Kitzbuhel was slower than The Jukebox Man who, of course, won the Kauto Star in 2024 in a far slower time (over ten seconds!) than Banbridge.

Kitzbuhel had been well beaten on his only previous start at three miles, in the Liverpool Hurdle at the Grand National meeting, but he looked as though he would be at home over further when winning over an extended two and a half miles at Punchestown on his chasing debut in November, and that form has worked out well among the principals. He looks capable of even better than he showed here in beating Thomas Mor by almost three lengths given the pace he set in front was even less exacting than the one set by the clearly ailing Il Est Francais in the King George (timefigure just 135).

It says a lot about the state of the leading home-trained novice staying chasers that none of the trio who had already scored at Grade 2 level in Britain had shown form anywhere near as good as Kitzbuhel had done in his maiden, and he’s clearly the best prospect in the race (albeit Wendigo will surely do better in a more strongly-run race on softer ground) for all he’s still some 10lb short of Brown Advisory level.

In contrast, Sir Gino, who won the Christmas Hurdle for Kitzbuhel's owners the Donnellys, has already shown form good enough to have won the Champion Hurdle six times in the last eight years. It was very hard to find fault with his first run since landing the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at this meeting twelve months earlier, when he’d beaten Ballyburn by seven and half lengths on his second and final start to a campaign that had started with an eight-length win in the Fighting Fifth, and to put his 162 Christmas Hurdle in context only Brighterdaysahead (166), State Man (165) and Constitution Hill (162) have achieved a timefigure at least as good over hurdles at around two miles, although Constitution Hill did run a 178 in the 2022 Supreme at his peak.

His trainer Nicky Henderson is reportedly of the opinion he’s good enough to win not only the Champion Hurdle (7/4 favourite) but the Champion Chase (10/1) as well and I thought he’d be even shorter in the Champion Hurdle betting than he is.

Mambo showing Arkle speed

The aforementioned Wayward Lad was won this year by another four-year-old, Mambonumberfive, with his best performance yet, not just on performance ratings but on the clock, too, passing the line seven lengths clear in a time that equated to a timefigure of 143.

That’s a fair bit below the level Sir Gino reached last season, or the likes of Edwardstone and Shishkin achieved not too long ago, but I wouldn’t be thinking he’s reached anything like his ceiling yet and not just because he scored with so much in hand. Indeed, a time comparison with the following Desert Orchid Handicap which was won by the equally progressive Thistle Ask in an almost identical time in a 150 timefigure makes for interesting reading.

According to the tracking data available on either the Attheraces or Racing TV websites, Thistle Ask reached the mile marker around 0.6 seconds or three lengths faster than Mambonumberfive but after that Mambonumberfive ran all of the last mile and notably the last four and last two furlongs much faster and could probably have gone even faster still given he took up the running on the bridle two fences from home.

If Thistle Ask is being talked about as a Champion Chase possible then Mambonumberfive must surely also be an Arkle possible, though the equine obstacles in his way – Lulamba, Kopek Des Bordes and Romeo Coolio – look a bit more imposing than those that stand currently in Thistle Ask’s path.

Too soon to write off Skelton novice

Aintree’s Boxing Day fixture was spoiled by low sun and, as ever when that happens, it’s best not to interpret the form of the affected races too literally, not least when all the hurdles in the straight are omitted not once but twice as they were in the Grade 1 Formby Novices' Hurdle.

Allowance for missed-out hurdles makes calculating timefigures more demanding than they might otherwise be, and a 128 timefigure for the winner Idaho Sun wasn’t too much in advance of what he had achieved in his prior win at Bangor where he’d had a couple of subsequent winners behind. Disappointment of the race, if that’s the right term for one whose major attributes were compromised by the missing hurdles, much like his stablemate Chuggy was later in the afternoon over fences, was one-time Supreme favourite Mydaddypaddy; the 12/1 now available might prove to be an overreaction.

Solness unlikely to confirm form

Leopardstown’s Boxing Day card was light on smart performances on the clock with only the aforementioned Romeo Coolio managing a figure higher than 125, in his case 154 (5lb higher than the best he achieved over hurdles) as he maintained his unbeaten record over fences with a hard-fought half-length win over Irish Panther, a late starter to chasing whose appearance at the last Cheltenham Festival came not in the Supreme like Romeo Coolio but in the County Hurdle off an official mark of just 128.

The fears Romeo Coolio's trainer had beforehand that two miles one furlong would be too sharp for him were nearly realised, only getting up in the dying strides, which suggests to me that even if he is open to a bit more improvement the even sharper test in the Arkle on the Old Course (twenty one yards short of two miles) is clearly going to be an issue, not least now the drainage work carried out at Cheltenham in recent years has made old-fashioned soft ground a thing of the past.

Neither were times much better at Ireland’s other two Boxing Day meetings at Limerick or Down Royal; the fastest winning timefigure at Limerick was just 122 at a meeting where Kazansky registered just 78 in the Grade 2 staying novice hurdle won last year by The Big Westerner, whereas no winner managed higher than 116 at Down Royal.

The Big Westerner was in action again at Limerick this year, winning the Grade 2 Dawn Run Mares Novice Chase without achieving much on the clock and any timefigures worth getting excited about came at Leopardstown where Kargese (142) won the Paddy Power Beginners Chase in a time nearly a second faster than Solness (141) recorded in the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase after getting to the final fence in the back straight in almost identical time.

The horses in the Rewards Club were all compromised to a small degree by having to jump the fence in the straight twice while Kargese bypassed it on both occasions because of low sun and they also took a wide course into the straight, but considering she had no company after the usual third last it was still some performance from the mare and paid a compliment to Kala Conti who beat her by sixteen lengths at Cork earlier in December, albeit with the benefit of a run under her belt.

Talk one to keep track of

As he had done the year before, course specialist Solness won the Rewards Club from the front but he was well held in last season’s Champion Chase and wouldn’t be sure to beat either Marine Nationale (reappearance, jockey nearly came off at the second fence) or Majborough (too keen, badly short of room on the run-in) should they all meet again at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Skylight Hustle won the other Grade 1, the Future Champions Novice Hurdle, in a 135 timefigure, though would probably have come off second best had Talk The Talk not come down at the last. The two of them had contested two-mile hurdles on the same day at Fairyhouse in November when Talk The Talk ran the faster last half mile of the pair by four lengths despite having reached the halfway point two and a half second lengths (or twelve lengths) before Skylight Hustle did; he deserves to be rated the higher of the two for now.

Galopin still on Gold trail

If the Gold Cup picture looked confusing after the King George it was no clearer after the Savills Chase which was won by the front-running Affordale Fury from I Am Maximus in a 141 timefigure.

Still only seven, this was his biggest win yet but it’s hard to think he’ll have circumstances so much in his favour should he contest the Gold Cup for which the reappearing Galopin Des Champs ran a perfectly creditable trial given conditions were a bit livelier than ideal even if the ridiculously weak in the market Inothewayurthinkin appeared not to.

The ultra-reliable Teahupoo won the Christmas Hurdle with his best performance yet on the clock, a 161 timefigure at the end of a strongly-run race too much for the keen-going Ballyburn, while down at Limerick the exciting Final Demand posted a 147 timefigure without breaking sweat after a fine round of jumping.

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