The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets in the ITV races at Kempton, the Curragh and Chelmsford on Saturday.
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Kempton
1.30 1 pt – 8 Kodi Lion 9/2
Most of these are once-raced and, as such, there’s a fair bit of educated guesswork involved in narrowing the field down, a good chance that the market will look very different at off-time than it did on Friday afternoon. Grandlad heads the Timeform ratings but, in truth, the form of his debut second does look a bit flimsy. Preference is for Kodi Lion, who also made his debut at Newcastle, though in his case the form of his third behind Shin Jidai in a maiden last July has a lot more substance to it. That was over seven furlongs, but the way Kodi Lion shaped suggested that a drop in trip may suit, edged out only inside the final 50 yards having travelled well up with the pace and traded at 1.43 in-running. He’s been gelded since and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be ready to go first time back.
2.05 1 pt – 1 Many Tears 4/1
Only a couple of these have the benefit of a recent run and, as so often happens at this time of year, the outcome could well be influenced by which filly is the most forward. It’s also possible there’ll be a tactical element, very few of the field known for front running. Choisya is hard to rule out, really progressive in handicaps last season and unlikely to want for fitness, either, though it is a slight concern that she could be a bit free if there’s a lack of early pace. As such, we just about prefer the claims of Many Tears, the only penalised runner in the field. She’s changed hands (formerly trained by Ger Lyons) for the chunky sum of 300,000 guineas since winning a listed event at Dundalk on her final outing as a three-year-old and is now in the care of James Ferguson. The step up to a mile at Dundalk evidently suited Many Tears, clearly much improved that day and value for extra over the result to boot having swept through from the rear in a race that was run at no more than a fair gallop. A similar turn of speed is likely to serve her well if this isn’t run at an end-to-end gallop, and her new yard has been going well with the smallish team he’s had in action on the all-weather in recent weeks.
2.40 1 pt – 13 Cannon Rock 11/1
A competitive-looking renewal of the Rosebery contested by several who are by no means exposed. Top of the list in this regard are Old Harrovian and Intinso. The former has looked good in winning both his starts on the all-weather and an opening BHA mark of 93 is potentially lenient, the fact that he starts his four-year-old campaign in this after 11 months off probably significant. Unsurprisingly, he’s been latched onto in the early shows and, along with the recent impressive Wolverhampton winner Intinso, is easier to leave alone now his price has contracted. Cannon Rock is another lightly-raced one at much longer odds. He cost only 16,000 guineas out of Charlie Appleby’s yard after winning a back-end Newmarket maiden as a two-year-old but returned from 17 months off to make a successful start for James Owen in a minor event at Southwell last month. He was impressively strong at the finish in a steadily-run race that day and gives the firm impression that a truer test will suit him even better. This furlong-shorter trip is a slight concern, but hopefully it’ll be run at a good gallop given the presence of several regular pace-forcers and, if it is, expect Cannon Rock to be running on better than most at the finish.
3.15 0.5 pt ew – 12 Duty of Care 7/1
A fair few of these appeal as potentially ahead of their marks. The imposing Circuit Breaker at the foot of the weights is certainly one. He left Ralph Beckett for the princely sum of just over a quarter of a million pounds last autumn, presumably with the intention of going hurdling, but he’s patently still got untapped potential as a Flat stayer. Sweet Fantasy is another who could be well treated, unbeaten in two starts over hurdles for James Owen and unexposed over this kind of trip on the Flat. We’re going to give Duty of Care another chance, however. Things didn’t pan out at all well for him when selected in this column on Good Friday, finding himself too far back and unable to reach a challenging position, but he was still finding at the finish and should find this developing better if he attempts to come from a similar position, lots of these noted for being front runners/prominent racers. His record at Kempton is very hard to knock, too.
3.45 0.5 pt – 1 Ahlain 15/2
No surprise that Devoted Queen is a short-priced favourite for this given the impression she created when winning her sole outing as a juvenile, but in truth a lot of that is based on potential rather than achievement and with it still unclear how strong the Goldophin juvenile crop was last year, she might be worth taking on at such prohibitive odds. Perhaps the most interesting of her rivals for this day is Ahlain, who is fit from a couple of runs already this year that show she has trained on nicely, as to be expected given that she’s a tall filly with scope. She’s two from two at Kempton over seven furlongs and has a pedigree to suggest she’ll be at least as effective over a longer trip. She’s likely to go forward which could give her a tactical edge and, in our opinion, she should at least be second favourite.
Curragh
2.55 1 pt – 8 Village Voice 6/1
White Birch deserves to be favourite here given he comes out best on the adjusted ratings and was a winner of the Ballysax in similarly testing ground on his reappearance last year, but around 9/4 is no more than a fair price and there is one in here against him that looks to be underestimated. Village Voice also won first time out on testing ground last year and that Salsabil Stakes win worked out well, with Jackie Oh, Foniska and Lumiere Rock all going on to win in listed/pattern company later in the year. Having plateaued in mid-summer, when not always having her ideal conditions, Village Voice got back to winning ways returned to soft ground in a French Group 3 on her final start last year. She looks more likely than most to give her running here and could have a tactical advantage given she is likely to be ridden close to the pace in a race where prominent racers (other than Mashhoor, poor record fresh for this yard and unproven on the ground) look thin on the ground.
Chelmsford
3.30 No Bet Advised
The first instinct at the prices is to try and get Capulet beaten at around even money given he has only a little in hand on Timeform ratings, but in truth his Group 2 form when placed behind Diego Velazquez at Leopardstown and Ghostwriter at Newmarket should make him a tough nut to crack, especially as he’s likely to go from the front from a low draw, so often the percentage call at Chelmsford. His closest rivals in the betting met on Good Friday in the Burradon Stakes with Cuban Tiger coming out on top, but this is a relatively quick turnaround and looks something of an afterthought for a valuable prize. Strictly speaking, Orne looks a touch overpriced on form, but he was a bit underwhelming at Newcastle and the combination of a wide draw and first-time headgear is off-putting for a horse that can take a keen hold. It’s a race we are happy to sit out.
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