The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets in the ITV races at Doncaster, Newbury and Bangor on Saturday.
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Newcastle
1.53 0.5 pt ew – 7 Duty of Care 16/1
It should be pointed out at this juncture quite what a good move turning these races on Finals Day into open handicaps has proved, the result being a card of really competitive contests with the added intrigue of horses running from some really big marks. That being said, it certainly hasn’t made the task of trying to find some winners any easier, but there is at least some good value to be found away from the front end of the markets and, while we wouldn’t necessarily put anyone off backing the likes of Palace Boy or Spartan Army in the Marathon, at a much bigger price Duty of Care makes appeal. Having progressed well as a stayer last winter, this seems to have been his target for some time, given a breathing operation before returning in December, and he’s caught the eye on both of his last two runs, firstly when second to Citizen General at Kempton (not unduly punished and now 7 lb better off with that one) and then when inefficiently ridden at Lingfield. His yard is going better domestically than at the time of both of those runs, he’s got a turn of foot for a stayer to think he’ll cope better than most should this turn tactical, while the presence of David Egan in the saddle (Shane Kelly has ridden him on every previous start for this yard) is no bad thing in our book, either.
2.25 1 pt – 1 Sommelier 4/1
This is highly competitive but top weight Sommelier looks open to more improvement than just about anything else and also has some of the strongest form claims. He’ll need to be a smart performer to win this off a mark of 98, but wide-margin wins at Chelmsford and Kempton on his second and third outings suggested he could be just that, and his second in a course-and-distance handicap when last seen on New Year’s Day did nothing to dispel the notion. Blue Prince nabbed him close home that day, but Sommelier had been rather keen up with the pace and perhaps found himself in front a bit earlier than ideal. He’s better off at the weights this time in any case, having surely been put away with this race in mind, and if Rossa Ryan can keep him covered up a bit longer in what looks sure to be a well-run race, then another jolt of progress is very much on the cards.
3.00 1 pt – 1 Nine Tenths 9/4
The fillies and mares is the only championship event not to attract a double-figure field and a messy race could be in store with very little obvious pace on. Therefore, it may pay just to keep things simple and side with the class act and Timeform top-rated Nine Tenths. She didn’t need to be at her best to win a listed race last time, but that verdict over geldings still reads well in the context of this, as does her preceding second to Dear My Friend in that grade. She’s much better off with Shades of Summer then when second to that rival over course and distance on New Year’s Day – she shaped best that day anyway – and that’s without accounting for Jack Enright’s 7-lb claim. Nine Tenths doesn’t have to be ridden as patiently as she was on that occasion – she was never far away at Wolverhampton last time – and provided things don’t get too muddling, her class edge should tell.
3.35 0.5 pt ew – 6 The X O 25/1
A tough race to solve with it difficult to put a line through many at all. What complicates things further is that for a relatively big-field sprint, guaranteed pace is thin on the ground and in the circumstances, something likely to sit closer to the front than the back looks the way to go. A high draw has been the percentage call at Newcastle throughout most of the winter and from stall 12, perhaps The X O will outrun big odds. He ran a career-best at the time when third in the 3-y-o Sprint over C&D at this fixture last year and ran even better when second in the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot next time. He’s had more lows than highs since, but there was more to like about his latest effort behind a few of these at Lingfield last time, making a big mid-race move out wide but staying on better than might have been expected to be beaten around 1½ lengths. This race ought to be run to suit him better and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise in the least.
4.10 1 pt ew – 10 Storm Catcher 10/1
This is tremendously competitive, as it should be for a first prize in excess of £100k. Both Oh So Grand and Penzance have been highly progressive on the all-weather this winter, and it’s easy to see why they top the betting, and both undoubtedly have solid claims in our book, but from a handicapping perspective it’s hard not to like Storm Catcher’s chances, particularly as he’s comfortably more than twice the price of that pair at the time of writing. True, he is two years older and more exposed, but he’s been in the form of his life this winter, and although he’s been second to Penzance twice, he’s a lot better off at the weights now (14 lb for four lengths at Chelmsford in December and 5 lb for a short head over course and distance on New Year’s Day). He showed his ongoing wellbeing when getting up to beat Felix in a very slowly-run race at Wolverhampton since then, he’s versatile with regards tactics and pace, and looks worth backing each-way with most firms paying at least four places.
4.40 0.5 pt ew – 9 King’s Code 16/1
Dear My Friend has been putting up some of the best performances seen on the all-weather in recent seasons of late and has loads in his favour bidding to make it five from five in artificial surfaces, but he is priced accordingly in an ultra-competitive race, and with four and five places on offer each way, it could be worth looking for something to run well at bigger odds. One that catches the eye from that point of view is the likeable King’s Code, who strikes as more likely than plenty to find some progress. He’s already got two wins to his name this year, both of which came in typically hard-fought fashion, and he proved himself in a tougher grade when fourth behind Kingdom Come in the Lincoln Trial last time. He shaped about as well as the ones that beat him that day, considering he ran into trouble when trying to improve from rear entering the final furlong. King’s Code is off the same mark here and a similar performance combined with a bit more luck should be enough to see him thereabouts in what seems likely to be a race of razor-fine margins.
Lingfield
2.05 1 pt ew – 4 Al Rufaa 9/2
The starting point for this has to be the amount of potential pace in the race and, with that in mind, Al Rufaa could well be the one to be on. An exuberant son of Kingman, it’s well worth pointing out that the only time he’s found himself in a well-run race since joining his current yard he was a comprehensive winner at Wolverhampton in November in a good timefigure. He’s been shaping up well without being seen to best effect since then (caught behind rivals on the home turn before coming home in a very quick sectional when going down by just three quarters of a length last time), and the prospect of being back in a well-run race looks ideal, a chance that this trip will suit him well if there’s enough pace for him to drop the bridle, too.
2.40 1 pt – 4 Benavente 8/1
Cephalus is thriving and was impressive here last time, but then 5/2 in a big field at Lingfield isn’t a price to set the pulse racing, not least as he’s sure to be dropped out from an outside stall. Benavente is drawn even wider and will likewise need luck as he attempts to come from the back, but he is at least a much bigger price and, what’s more, was so impressive at Southwell last time that’s he’s worth chancing. He looked better than ever that day, cruising through the race on the bridle and asserting for minimal pressure inside the final furlong, and a subsequent 7-lb rise looks lenient. Clearly, he’ll need things to go his way this time, but a well-run race should be on the cards, and Benavente does possess the kind of turn of foot that’s so often required in races at Lingfield.
3.15 0.5 pt ew – 2 Barenboim 14/1 & 0.5 pt ew 8 Sarsons Risk 11/1
11/2 the field on Thursday afternoon shows just how open this is, and backing a couple at bigger prices each-way seems the best way to play it. First up is Sarsons Risk who has been freshened up since running over an inadequate trip on his most recent outing. A couple of starts prior to that he’d been a tidy winner over Aqwaam at Southwell (that horse currently at the top of the betting for this despite reopposing on the same terms), and he followed that by shaping well at Kempton in early-January, closing all the way to the line having not had the rub of the green. The presence of Cieren Fallon in the saddle looks a plus.
Barenboim is a horse who does come with risks attached, particularly now that he’s redeveloped a habit of missing the break, but the feeling is that a bigger performance than he’s been able to show of late is very much in the offing. The only time he’s run over this trip in his last 3 outings he finished very close up over C&D behind Spartan Army who has won again twice since and who’s a leading player for the Marathon Final at Newcastle, Barenboim was a winner on his only visit to Lingfield last year, while David O’Meara is one of the most in-form trainers around at the moment.
3.50 1 pt – 6 Daamberdiplomat 6/1
No shortage of pace on here and that can play to the strengths of Irish raider Daamberdiplomat who looks to have plenty going for him. He’s a strong traveller and won at Dundalk in December with a bit more up his sleeve than the bare margin of a head suggests. He returned over that same course and distance last month and caught the eye (including those of the stewards), with that effort very much looking a pipe-opener for this much more valuable contest. Again he travelled smoothly for a long way, but his 10-lb claimer rather overdid the waiting tactics and he finished third, passing the post with more to give. On the upside, his mark went up just 1 lb to 89 for that, ensuring he’s still eligible for this 0-90 and now has James Doyle taking over in the saddle. Stall 2 should ensure he can sit in behind the likely strong pace and the turn of foot he’s shown before suggests the way races tend to develop at Lingfield will suit him down to the ground.
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