Timeform highlight the ratings banker, a big improver and a Flag of note at Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle on Saturday.
The Ratings Banker
Lord North – 14:05 Lingfield
The Gosden stable has won the last three renewals of the Winter Derby and this year they rely on LORD NORTH who, ominously for his rivals, will become the highest-rated horse to ever run in the race when he lines up on Saturday. For context, Lord North currently has a Timeform master rating of 128 and the best horse to have contested the Winter Derby up to now was Wissahickon, who had a rating of 125 when starting the winning sequence for his yard in 2019.
Lord North wasn’t far off his very best when last seen nearly 11 months ago winning the Dubai Turf at Meydan. Waited with in the early stages, Lord North still had most of the field to pass as they turned into the straight, but he was ultimately well on top at the finish, beating Lord Glitters by three lengths, after showing his trademark turn of foot to hit the front over a furlong out.
Admittedly, Lord North’s absence since is a slight concern, but this is a far weaker race than those he usually contests. He appears to have a significant class edge over his seven rivals and, in truth, it’s hard to see any other outcome than another win for Lord North before he heads back to Meydan to try and defend his Dubai Turf crown.
The Big Improver
Shallwehaveonemore – 15:00 Kempton
SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE hasn’t yet shown that he is the best horse in the eight-strong line-up for the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle. The four-year-old Iceo, who receives 9-lb from Shallwehaveonemore, has the strongest form credentials if getting back to the level he showed when making a winning British debut over this course and distance in December, while Aucunrisque also achieved more when easily defying a BHA mark of 117 on his handicap debut at Wincanton last month.
However, the feeling remains that we’ve only scratched the surface with Shallwehaveonemore. He is sure to have a bigger effort in the locker when everything falls right and there was certainly plenty to like about the way he got the job done when getting off the mark over hurdles at Sandown last time. That was probably just an ordinary race, but he couldn’t have been any more dominant as he produced a powerful front-running display to win by 20 lengths.
It goes without saying that this will be tougher now tackling Grade Two company, particularly with a couple of useful rivals in opposition, but Shallwehaveonemore is fancied to take the step up in grade in his stride to confirm himself a very smart prospect.
The Timeform Flag
Soft Risk – 15:50 Newcastle
Horse In Focus, Timeform Top Rated
It’s been a while since Nicky Richards was regularly winning big races over jumps with the top-class chaser Monet’s Garden, but the trainer now looks to have another exciting prospect on his hands in the shape of SOFT RISK, who is unbeaten so far in a career spanning a single run in a bumper in May and three starts over hurdles this season.
Soft Risk was again sent off at very short odds when registering his latest success in a novice hurdle at Kelso, but it was still impressive the way he defied a double penalty. Settled just behind the leaders in the early stages, he came through to lead entering the straight and was always doing enough from there despite idling markedly on the extended run-in (all the flights in the straight were bypassed), ultimately winning by three and a quarter lengths with plenty in hand.
It might be asking a lot to expect Soft Risk to scale the same heights as Monet’s Garden, but it’s highly unlikely that we’ve seen the best of him yet and there should certainly be more races to be won with him. In particular, this looks a very good opportunity for him to maintain his unbeaten record now running in his first handicap from an opening BHA mark of 123.
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