Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on Tuesday.
Three points of interest
Gosdens’ runner the ratings value in Goodwood Cup
Sometimes there is no substitute for experience and that has often been the case in the Goodwood Cup (3.05), with only one three-year-old winner - Stradivarius in 2017, the first of his four victories in the race – since Lucky Moon in 1990.
The average age of winners in that period is 5.4, with seven of those winning the race on more than occasion, while 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 11 previous Flat runs under their belt, too.
So, whilst Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Illinois and the year-younger Scandinavia (who receives a stone from his older rivals) give Aidan O’Brien a very strong hand in the race, there’s a feeling that they – along with the progressive handicapper French Master – may yet give one of their older rivals a sniff.
Though 2021 winner Trueshan and Gold Cup third Dubai Future are respected at huge odds, the most obvious beneficent is Sweet William, who is only 1 lb below Illinois on weight-adjusted ratings and who puts the wily into William, always giving the impression that he is holding something back for when he decides the time is right.
His stamina was stretched when only fourth in the Gold Cup last month, but he was a fine second to Kyprios in this race 12 months ago, has a Goodwood win on his CV, and is sure to relish this softer ground more than the firm conditions he encountered at Ascot.
At a general 9/1 - and eight runners as things stand – he looks a very solid bet to at least make the top three.
Light to shine brightest in the maiden
On the subject of ratings, six out of the eight races at Goodwood on Tuesday are topped by a horse just 1 lb ahead of their nearest rival, emphasising the ultra-competitive nature of this meeting.
The exceptions are the fillies’ handicap (4.55) - which sees ‘Horse In Focus’ Zapphire 2 lb clear of Mahra’s Love, who admittedly has a ‘small p’ attached to her rating – and the British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes at 4.20.
Favourites have won four of the last six renewals, with 2023 jolly Array only beaten a short-head, so the market has tended to get it right and it looks to have found the correct horse once again in the form of Naval Light.
The Karl Burke-trained colt shaped very well when second at Beverley on debut and was still green when 5½ lengths eighth to Charles Darwin in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He remains capable of better, especially over this extra furlong, and it’s no surprise that he is 3 lb clear (with a ‘small p’) of the field.
He may have most to fear from fellow Wathnan Racing breeze-up purchase High Approval, who sports a tongue-tie for the first time, and York third Stellar Sunrise whose yard won this last year and whose debut experience of the track could prove useful.
Mick Appleby’s excellent Goodwood record is well-documented, and his 22% strike-rate jumps up to 50% (+25.25 level stakes profit) when it comes to two-year-olds. The owners target this meeting so don’t be too surprised if Yorkshire Puds takes a big step forward from his gentle introductory third at Pontefract.
Tough to draw conclusions to Festival opener
18-13-12-11
16-1-14-11
16-2-9-6
14-6-2-9
1-13-4-18
The numbers above show the stall number for each of the first four home in the last five renewals of the Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap which gets the Goodwood Festival underway at 1.20.
The winners were a mixed bunch, too, with three racing on or close to the pace and two held up off the speed, so it merely illustrates that you can win from anywhere at the track.
But as we know at this meeting, the further back you are, the more luck you are likely to need.
That may be the case for supporters of ‘Horse In Focus’ Defiance who caught the eye of the Timeform race reporters when shaping notably well from a less-than-ideal position when 5¼ lengths fourth to Ecureuil Secret on his belated comeback at Epsom last month.
Roger Varian’s horses are in good form ('Hot Trainer' flag) and this Camelot gelding looks to have been saved for this assignment. The ground looks ideal and with this BHA mark of 99 within reach, he’s fancied to get back to winning ways with a strongly-run race likely to suit this hold-up performer well.
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