Strong European challenge lined up for turf races at Breeders' Cup

The Breeders’ Cup returns to Del Mar, California on Friday and Saturday, twelve months after a highly successful meeting for European-trained horses which brought victories for Magnum Force (Ger Lyons) in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, the Aidan O’Brien-trained pair Lake Victoria and Henri Matisse in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf respectively, Starlust (Ralph Beckett) in the Turf Sprint and Rebel’s Romance (Charlie Appleby) in the Turf.

The Europeans hold a strong hand in the turf races again this year, beginning with Friday’s two-year-old contests where Aidan O’Brien has the likely favourite for all three of those events. As well as chasing his own record for the most Group/Grade 1 wins in a year, O’Brien is also on the verge of becoming the most successful trainer in Breeders’ Cup history, currently sharing that honour on 20 wins with the late D. Wayne Lukas who died earlier this year.

Friday

One Breeders’ Cup race O’Brien is yet to win is the Juvenile Turf Sprint but he has a few chances this year, notably with True Love (111) who added to earlier victories in the Queen Mary Stakes and Railway Stakes when successful in the Cheveley Park Stakes. She travels strongly close up in her races so should be suited by this test. Ballydoyle’s other runners are Brussels (109) who has been runner-up at Newmarket on his last couple of starts in the Middle Park Stakes and Cornwallis Stakes, beaten just a nose by Beckford’s Folly in the latter contest, and gelding Mission Central (107) who ran his best race when winning the valuable new two-year-old race on Champions Day.

True Love’s main threat could come from Donnacha O’Brien’s Havana Anna (108) who has improved with each run and was only three quarters of a length behind her at Newmarket after leading over a furlong out until the last fifty yards. Charlie Appleby’s Military Code (105) showed improved form when beaten a head in the listed Roses Stakes at the Ebor meeting last time and will be suited by another try at six furlongs, while James Owen’s Aspect Island (104) likewise comes off a career best when a close-up third in the Cornwallis Stakes in which he showed plenty of pace.

O’Brien’s Precise (113p) should prove hard to beat in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She followed up her win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (also won by Lake Victoria) with a clear-cut success in the Fillies’ Mile when value for more than her winning margin, completing a four-timer with the likelihood of more to come.

Joseph O’Brien takes on his father with Queen of Hawaii (96p), winner of her last two starts, including the Flame of Tara Stakes at the Curragh, as does brother Donnacha whose Balantina (93) has been placed in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and another Group 3 at Deauville. Europe’s other representative is May Hill Stakes runner-up Pacific Mission (98p) for Andrew Balding, though she’s another who will need to improve plenty to trouble Precise.

Coventry Stakes winner Gstaad (116) has found one too good in three tries at Group 1 level since, but his European form makes him the one to beat in the Juvenile Turf which O’Brien has won for the last three years and a record seven times in all. After narrow defeats in the Prix Morny and National Stakes, Gstaad found Gewan three quarters of a length too good in the Dewhurst Stakes, and while he has a speedy pedigree and took a while to settle last time, stamina shouldn’t be an issue over Del Mar’s sharp mile.

However, it could be more of a stretch for Ardisia (105) who has enjoyed a tremendous sprinting campaign for Hugo Palmer in a season that began in early-April, winning four times, notably the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar, and was admittedly doing his best work late on when running another fine race to run Mission Central to half a length at Ascot last time. Joseph O’Brien is represented here too, with the Tyros Stakes winner North Coast (99), though he finished some way behind Gstaad in the National Stakes last time.

Saturday

Europe’s best chance of landing the Turf Sprint again looks to lie with the Amo Racing pair trained by Adrian Murray, Arizona Blaze (119) and Bucanero Fuerte (116), who were last seen finishing first and third in the Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh. That was the likeable Arizona Blaze’s fourth win of the year and his ability to travel strongly up with the pace will stand him in good stead here, as it did last year when he was beaten only half a length in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Bucanero Fuerte has had a lighter but still successful campaign and has a similar run style, though found the task of attempting to make all into a reportedly strong headwind a bit too much last time.

Jack Davidson’s filly She’s Quality (110) was only a head behind Bucanero Fuerte in fourth in the Flying Five and has since added to a series of at least respectable efforts in top sprinting company this year when third in the Prix de l’Abbaye but she’ll clearly need a career best to get her head in front for the first time this season. Charlie Hills’ veteran Khaadem (108+) tends not to run two races the same, so whether he can follow up his Grade 2 success in the Woodford Stakes at Keeneland last time when ridden by Frankie Dettori is in some doubt, but a strong pace will help and he’ll be staying on late if on a going day.

Only one of the last ten editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf has been kept at home and a particularly strong European raiding party for this year’s race should ensure that trend continues. Rebel’s Romance (124) regained the Turf title he had won at Keeneland in 2022 when successful here twelve months ago and he has added to his prolific record in the meantime with another five wins, most recently when accounting for four rivals, including stablemate El Cordobes (117), under a forceful ride from Dettori in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Aqueduct.

Rebel’s Romance will surely give another good account but his bid to become the first three-time winner of the Turf may be thwarted by high-class three-year-old Minnie Hauk (127) who could take O’Brien’s record number of Turf wins to eight. While Minnie Hauk lost her unbeaten record for the season in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, her head defeat when reeled in late by Daryz was an excellent effort, a repeat of which back on firmer ground here, will make her hard to beat. Daryz’s trainer Francis-Henri Graffard is enjoying an excellent season of his own and will be represented by Goliath (123) who had Rebel’s Romance back in third when running a career best to win last year’s King George at Ascot. Goliath’s record has been rather mixed since then, however, and he enjoyed the run of the race in a Grosser Preis von Baden which didn’t take much winning last time.

Ralph Beckett’s gelding Amiloc (121) lost his unbeaten record to Al Riffa in the Irish St Leger last time, though enhanced his reputation with that effort. Even so, more is needed here, especially in a race where the emphasis will be much more on speed. This looks a tough task for James Owen’s Wimbledon Hawkeye (111), fourth behind Amiloc in the King Edward VII Stakes, though he has already landed a huge pot across the Atlantic with victory in the Grade 3 Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs at the end of August.

This will be a very different test for Ebor winner Ethical Diamond (117), a first Breeders’ Cup runner for Willie Mullins, while this will be a stiffer task too for Silawi (114) who made all in the Canadian International last time, and for Rashabar (112) who has yet to finish out of the frame but steps up in trip as well as back up in grade.

Notable Speech (124) was favourite to give Charlie Appleby and William Buick a fourth consecutive win in the Breeders’ Cup Mile 12 months ago but the 2000 Guineas winner could only keep on late for third. He’s set to meet last year’s runner-up Johannes again, but a reproduction of his best form would make him the one to beat and he comes here after a head defeat in the Prix Jacques le Marois and then a ready win in the Woodbine Mile. This will be tougher than his last run in North America, though, and he faces an unexposed three-year-old rival in Sahlan (120) who was much improved when coming off a good pace to land the Prix du Moulin last time for Francis-Henri Graffard.

The Lion In Winter (118) began the season as a leading Derby hope for Ballydoyle but shorter trips have proven to suit him since, and as well as finishing a close third behind Sahlan at Longchamp, he matched that form when runner-up to Cicero’s Gift in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last time although better placed than most. Of Juddmonte’s two entries, Celebration Mile winner Jonquil (117) makes a bit more appeal than shock Sussex Stakes winner Qirat (113), though Andrew Balding’s three-year-old needs to turn the tables on Rhetorical who beat him into fourth in the Turf Mile at Keeneland in early October.

Godolphin have at least one leading contender for the Filly & Mare Turf with Cinderella’s Dream (118) who was unlucky not to finish closer in last year’s race when conceding first run to Canadian mare Moira before going down by half a length. Cinderella’s Dream was a lacklustre third in the Sun Chariot Stakes last time, but she’s better judged on Newmarket wins earlier this season in the Dahlia Stakes and Falmouth Stakes and has a good record on firm going in the States. Stablemate Diamond Rain (116) has few miles on the clock for a four-year-old and ran her best race on her first try at Grade 1 level when pulling clear with She Feels Pretty in the E. P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine last time, going down by a head and giving the impression she could turn the tables on that rival over this extra furlong.

See The Fire (116) doesn’t look as good as her wide-margin success in the Middleton Stakes at York in May suggests, though her overall level of form makes her a leading contender for Andrew Balding, and she went close in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp last time. Little went right for Gezora (116) in the Arc last time, but a better showing here would come as no surprise for Graffard’s Prix de Diane winner who has twice finished in front of O’Brien’s Bedtime Story (112) this season. Atsila (109) and Cathedral (108) made the frame in the Matron Stakes for Donnacha O’Brien and Kevin Philippart de Foy respectively but neither matched that form in the Sun Chariot last time and look up against it.

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