Our man is back with his thoughts on the big topics going into next week's Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York.
Gloves off as Ebor week clashes loom
The first rule of York Club is: you do not talk negatively about York Club.
And why would you want to dig out an ever-improving racecourse that generates more goodwill than most of the rest put together?
True, this year’s June heatwave confirmed that hell will freeze over before the York executive loosen their mandatory County Stand tie edict ‘for men and those who identify as such.’
But sartorial nitpickery seems churlish when you emerge from the latest hot spell identifying as a spectacular late summer showpiece carrying over £7m in prize money with all 28 races worth a minimum of £100,000 again.
The upgraded City of York Stakes means Ebor week now features four G1s, four G2s, a raft of rich handicaps culminating with the eponymous Ebor and a plethora of punting puzzles.
Solving those puzzles will be tough, but this is York Club. And the second rule of York Club is: you do not leave the Sky Bet Ebor Festival without giving it a reyt good lash.
Clarity needed after summer of slip-ups
You can’t ignore the fact that Wednesday’s Juddmonte International has been recognised as the world’s best race twice in the last five years.
Nor can you ignore the fact that what happens once the gates crash open can be every bit as important as the credentials a star horse takes into them.
Think back twelve months, when the notion that Hans Andersen would make the pace proved no more than a fairytale as stablemate City Of Troy seized the lead and the prize as key foe Calandagan was left with much to do.
Calandagan is absent this year but two Euro stars, a Japanese ace and an unbeaten French improver provide a high-class puzzle laden with complexity for a pair of racing juggernauts who have lost their tactical bearings repeatedly during this strange summer of costly tactical slip-ups.
The Shoe got the boot after Field Of Gold fired too late in the Guineas, while Saint Ryan’s halo slipped as Los Angeles paid the price for chasing a punishing pace at Royal Ascot.
Ballydoyle’s brains trust blew a King George fuse trying to turn Jan Brueghel into a sit-sprint front runner - and the less said the better about a farcical Sussex in which Moore and Bill Buick asked Henri Matisse and Field Of Gold the sort of questions that Frankel himself would have struggled to answer.
Put simply, the Coolmore and Clarehaven collectives have left some big ones behind in 2025 – and that’s before we pick the bones out of a Sandown showdown that has spawned round two between two O’Brien and Gosden heavyweights.
Pace the key to Ombudsman appeal
Separating fact from opinion over that stop-start Coral-Eclipse holds the key to choosing which way to jump in the eagerly awaited rematch between the dynamic DELACROIX and the dangerous OMBUDSMAN.
- Aidan reported that Ryan had to change plans four times before producing Delacroix with a relentless surge to nail Ombudsman on the line.
- The Gozzas engaged in animated chat with Buick before Big John donned his diplomat’s hat to report that “we were trapped rather wide and got close to the pace.”
- Respected timelord Simon Rowlands suggested that “Delacroix’s final furlong was probably the fastest by an Eclipse winner in history.”
- And Sportinglife sage Graeme North opined that the Irish colt was “arguably the best horse at the weights by 3lb or 4lb” once his rapid finishing splits are accounted for.
But does this year’s muddling Eclipse represent a total or merely partial guide to the true merits of Delacroix and Ombudsman?
The market suggests it does – just - but I’m still inclined to believe Ombudsman’s commanding defeat of Anmaat and See The Fire in that strongly run Prince of Wales’s Stakes is the best piece of 2000m form seen in Europe this season.
Parachuting a French pacemaker looks a sensible move and, providing the canny Rab Havlin deploys Birr Castle efficiently, I suspect a peak-form Ombudsman can resolve this international argument and show the Sandown slip-up didn’t do him justice.
DD on the history trail
Twenty years have passed since Zenno Rob Roy and Yutaka Take came within a neck of beating Italian raider Electrocutionist in the International.
DANON DECILE hasn’t accomplished as much as Zenno – who was Japan’s Horse of the Year when he rolled into York – but he caused a 46-1 boilover in last year’s Japanese Derby and looked better than ever in beating Calandagan and several other high-class rivals in the Sheema Classic in April.
Fellow Japanese raider Durezza, who was third in that Meydan race, was beaten double digits in last year’s International.
But I wouldn’t hold that against Danon Decile. A straightforward ride who should handle a slightly shorter trip, he’s been a significant market springer and looks well worth a saver as he bids to become the first Japanese horse to win on the Knavesmire.
Minnie tuning up for a stirring solo
How do you rate the pecking order among a bang-up battalion of Ballydoyle three-year-olds this season?
Delacroix is clubhouse leader as we approach the final third of the season with a Timeform rating of 129+, while fellow G1 winners Lambourn and Scandinavia are on 122 and 121 respectively.
The day when Aidan lets his star fillies flex their muscles (and their sex allowance) against the boys is still ahead of us, but Whirl is 122p after her Pretty Polly and Nassau wins and MINNIE HAUK (also 122p) is clearing her throat for Thursday’s Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks.
Named after an American opera star who conquered Europe in the 19th century, this powerful Frankel filly needed most of Epsom’s stiff mile and a half to subdue Whirl in the Oaks and it was a similar story as she mastered Wemightakedlongway in the Irish equivalent.
But Aidan feels this equine Minnie is only just finding her voice and that we won’t see the very best of her “until she gets a strong, high tempo in the middle of a race and horses are dying off around her.”
That scenario seems unlikely in a small field on Thursday, but the fact that Minnie Hauk reeled off sub 11s and sub 12s closing splits under hands and heels in a slowly run race at the Curragh shows she’s much more than just a dour stayer.
Every one of Aidan’s eight previous Yorkshire Oaks winners were three-year-olds and the best of them – Classic heroines like Alexandrova (2006), Peeping Fawn (2007), Love (2020) and Snowfall (2021) – all bolted up.
It's jarring to see the combined might of Charlie, John/Thady, Andrew, Ralph and William haven’t managed to rustle up a single filly to take her on in Britain’s premier all-aged race for fillies.
Maybe Estrange is as good as David O’Meara feels she is but Minnie can surely hit the high notes on the Knavesmire – and it wouldn’t come as a shock if she ends up on an autumnal Parisian stage as the prima donna in this year’s Ballydoyle opus.
The first rule of Flight Club is….
You do not talk about Flight Club without scratching your chin and saying: ‘These bloody sprinters can all beat each other.’
And the second rule of Sprint Club is: you do not assume there isn’t a value bet when the best of this year’s 1000m pelters bang heads in this year’s Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes.
Yes, most this year’s key players look very closely matched, but we might be able to sort the hawks from the pigeons by identifying horses with the right running style for York’s pan flat 1000m speedway.
And that style generally involves breaking smartly and blazing through the second and third furlongs in under 21s before digging deep as the chasing pack find full stride.
True, it is possible to slalom from the rear to win a Nunthorpe (or two) and the man who did so on Sole Power in 2014 supplies one of the most progressive horses in this year’s race in SAYIDAH DARIYAN.
Arizona pick of the Blazin’ Squad
Richard Hughes’s filly impressed in quickening out of a pocket to win a G3 over six furlongs against her own sex, but the step up in class and down in distance asks a new question and bang-in-form Irish raider ARIZONA BLAZE makes most appeal.
Adrian Murray’s colt came up just short in a big Sales race here last year, but he’s recorded career best Timeform ratings of 118 on his last two starts, finishing a neck behind Time For Sandals in the Commonwealth Cup then beating Temple Stakes winner Mgheera with authority in a Curragh G2.
Early signs suggest this year’s three-year-old sprinters – including Arizona Blaze’s stablemate Bucanero Fuerte - compare favourably with an older brigade who are undeniably plain by G1 standards.
That lack of depth can help smooth-travelling juvenile LADY IMAM run a bold race, but Arizona Blaze’s aggressive style looks made for York. He’s available at 6-1 as Ebor week beckons – and that looks more than fair.
London calling for an Ethical Ebor
Oh, for the days when fast-improving three-year-olds made the Ebor something akin to shelling peas for punters.
The modern version has lost something valuable – as evidenced by the fact that an 86-rated beast crept in last year – but finding a couple who are ahead of their mark remains vital.
One of them could be last year’s unlucky fifth Hipop De Loire but 7-2 is no bargain, while second favourite French Master can win without my money from a mark of 108.
But LONDON CITY and ETHICAL DIAMOND appeal as likely sorts at 8-1 and 10-1 respectively.
Aidan wasn’t chuffed when the Classic generation were on the wrong end of an Ebor expulsion tool in 2019 and his sole success in the race came when Mediterranean thwarted gambled-on fellow three-year-old Foreign Affairs in 2001.
But London City is less exposed than many a three-year-old – with just seven runs including an impressive York success last spring – and the way he shaped under considerate handling in the G2 Curragh Cup last month was very encouraging.
It's fair to say there was plenty o’buzz around this hulking grey when the hardworking Sportinglife team visited Ballydoyle recently and the same could be said about Ethical Diamond during a similar jolly/serious journalistic assignment to Closutton.
“What we see on the gallops is way better than what we’ve got on the racecourse” was the key message as Willie Mullins assessed this lad’s Ebor prospects.
But we saw plenty from Ethical Diamond when he forged clear of several rivals who have run very well since in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot.
An 8lb hike has followed but this Diamond is shining brighter now he’s finally learned to relax and, granted some cover and a true pace, the demands of the Ebor should suit him very well indeed.
City of York looks a home of the Brave
Put it on the poll, Dave.
How did York chief William Derby react on Friday when it emerged that Rosallion’s bruised foot was going to rule him out of the Prix Jacques le Marois?
A: Sporting sympathy for Deauville counterparts.
B: Small clenched first salute under the desk.
C: Break out the bubbly for all and sundry.
D: A combination of all three – but mainly C!
I wasn’t a drum banger for an upgraded Sky Bet City of York Stakes and I’m still not fully sold on the wisdom of dangling a £600,000 carrot during a five-week window that already features the Sussex, Maurice De Gheest, Marois, Moulin and Sprint Cup.
But the proof of the G1 pudding is in the eating and, with Richard Hannon’s crack miler joining three or four other elite winners, Saturday’s race looks like serving up a high-class contest featuring several hardened speed horses.
Quinault set a searing gallop and kept rolling over course and distance in June, while the mercurial Audience has a need to lead profile and the fact that Bond Thoroughbred have bought Maranoa Charlie suggests that we might have a feisty French front runner in the mix.
Monday’s five-day declarations will reveal more, but this could set up very neatly for a smooth travelling holdup horse and the ultra-progressive NEVER SO BRAVE fits the bill.
Andrew Balding has polished the uncut gems he inherited from Sir Stoute impressively this year and this gelding has excelled for his new handler, powering clear of a huge field off a BHA mark of 105 at the royal meeting then returning to Ascot with an impressive success in the Summer Mile.
That G2 contest was an unusual race tactically – and the placed horses haven’t franked the form – but the way Never So Brave cruised through from well back to cut down runaway leader Point Lynas under confident handling from David Probert was striking.
The late addition of Rosallion complicates matters and his Timeform rating (125) leaves him 3lb ahead of Never So Brave. But the Balding horse is on a roll and, with ideal conditions as the stable continue to shine, he has a lot in his favour in Britain’s first ever 1400m G1 for older horses.
Low looks the way to go in day one sprints
You will have to look hard for any sign of rain in the Ebor week forecast and there is still a fair amount of studying to for some strong supporting races.
But the day one card looks reasonably well set, so let's sign off this year's Ebor File with a few final thoughts.
A low to middle draw has seemed valuable on the York straight course this summer and that's well worth noting given that there are three sprint handicaps on day one.
Trefor, Bergerac and Northern Ticker are all going well enough to earn a positive mention for the opener at 1.50.
Nad Alshiba Green and the speedy Irish raider Eclairage are worth keeping an eye at longish odds on for a fillies' handicap that is rammed with front runners at 4.45.
And granted a bit of luck with the draw, there are several interesting horses in the concluding nursery at 5.20.
Shaman Champion looked a shade unlucky when second at Goodwood and it seems notable that Hughes has Moore jocked up.
But Richard Fahey could do with a good Ebor Week and Golden Palace and Utmost Respect both look fairly treated for the finale.
Utmost Respect was a good thing beat on his debut at the Dante meeting and has shown plenty since, finishing a good seventh at Royal Ascot before getting off the mark at Hamilton.
There's more to come from him, but Richard feels GOLDEN PALACE is better than a rating of 86 suggests after wins at Beverley and York and the Timeform handicappers clearly agree in making her clear top rated with the prospect of more to come.
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