Nunthorpe Stakes preview: How strong are Lady Iman and Spicy Marg's York claims?

The Nunthorpe is one of my favourite Flat races of the year and it holds a unique position in the British racing calendar.

In theory, the case for siding with a precocious speedster in York’s Group 1 sprint sounds simple, given the chunks of weight they receive from their elders, but the reality indicates just how difficult it is for these younger horses to bridge the gap in terms of mental and physical development.

Only two – Lyric Fantasy in 1992 and Kingsgate Native in 2007 – have bettered their older rivals on the Knavesmire since the 1950s.

Lady Iman is favourite to make it three next week.

So, what else does history tell us about the likelihood of Ger Lyons’ filly joining that select group?

Since Kingsgate Native’s success almost 20 years ago, thirteen juveniles have had a crack at the Nunthorpe. All bar three have finished nearer last than first.

The trio – Radiohead, Acapulco and The Platinum Queen – coped well with the step into tougher company, all either matching or improving on their previous form at York, though in spite of the hefty allowances, still found one or two too good, though it admittedly took one of the best Nunthorpe performances this century from Mecca’s Angel to deny Acapulco, who herself was two lengths clear of her remaining seventeen rivals.

It’s also perhaps worth noting five of the thirteen to have attempted to complete this feat were well fancied, sent off at 5/1 or shorter. It stands to reason that punters are drawn to juveniles, unexposed and typically arriving on the back of their best performance – as Lady Iman will be doing after her Molecomb victory – but the scarcity of two-year-old winners relative to some tight SPs is perhaps indicative of a market that hasn’t always fully appreciated just how significant the step up in class regularly proves to be, especially when, as Acapulco found, a real top-notch older horse is in competition.

The Molecomb itself has proven the most common juvenile stepping-stone to the Nunthorpe, a test of raw speed on the Sussex Downs able to make a fast horse look very fast indeed.

Kingsgate Native himself came to the Nunthorpe via the race, though he was beaten at Glorious Goodwood by Fleeting Spirit, who ironically met with defeat herself at York, not really lasting out over an additional furlong in the Lowther.

In the time since, though, Molecomb winners Big Evs, Yalta and Requinto have finished well held, as did Stone Of Folca, who was a close second at Goodwood. Enticing, who landed the Molecomb for William Haggas, also beat only one home in the Nunthorpe the year before Kingsgate Native achieved history.

Very much a two-year-old on looks, Lady Iman possesses a current Timeform rating of 104, no better than average among the juvenile runners to have had a tilt across the last two decades and 4 lb below the top-rated in this year’s line-up, the admittedly misfiring Asfoora, after weight-adjustment calculations have taken place.

'Why might it be different this time?'

So far, it’s all sounding rather downbeat. So why is she favourite? Why might it be different this time?

First and foremost – and this may be a shock to some – for all this is quite a data-heavy piece again, winning horse races isn’t about recording big figures and posting times that look impressive on a spreadsheet. It’s about beating the opposition in front of you and, well, the opposition this time around would be unlikely to have Scooby Doo even flinching.

I wrote prior to the July Cup about the gradual decline in quality of British and Irish sprinters across the past decade, big performances from the likes of Battaash, Blue Point and Harry Angel masking what was becoming an increasingly shallow pool of sprinters capable of posting genuinely top-class efforts.

And if anyone was pessimistic about the state of the division prior this time at the start of last month, not much that’s happened in the weeks since would have come close to turning their frown upside down.

No Half Measures (114) caused a 66/1 upset in the July Cup with Rage Of Bamby (114) also recording a big-priced Group success in the Hackwood. Neither of those fillies will line up in the Nunthorpe, but King George Stakes winner JM Jungle (116), the latest to blur the lines between top-end handicapper and Pattern-class performer and three-year-old Sayidah Dariyan (112+), who took the fillies-only Summer Stakes, are likely to contest the Nunthorpe next week.

'Is it just a matter of time?'

If there was a glimmer of light for the sprinting scene in recent weeks, it surely came from Lady Iman’s main market rival Arizona Blaze, who improved his rating to 118 after winning the Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh.

It’s also worth pointing out that despite the poor record of two-year-olds against their elders, at this stage of the season the Timeform weight-for-age scale has the youngsters at a base advantage of 8 lb better off with their three-year-old counterparts and favoured by 9 lb with aged four and above.

Essentially, Timeform's view is that the BHA’s weight-for-age scale significantly overstates the margin between the juveniles and their elders, and that the right two-year-old running in the right race would hold a significant edge.

And the overall strike-rate stats are certainly skewed by some entries that could be described as speculative at best, some connections perhaps acting with a sense of urgency regarding wanting to steal Group 1 form with a precocious type; it’s worth remembering that the Nunthorpe provides the only top-level opportunity for a juvenile over 5f on these shores.

So, is it just a matter of time before another two-year-old adds their name to Nunthorpe roll of honour?

Certainly, Lady Iman seems best at a speed-favouring 5f and will go into a mediocre-looking Group 1 within touching distance of those at the top on the figures and won’t be the only young filly lining up at York with a live chance either; Michael Bell’s Spicy Marg, a general 10/1 shot, won the same valuable conditions event at Glorious Goodwood as The Platinum Queen en route and her connections have also stumped up the £40,000 supplementary fee, though her rating of 99 leaves her with a little bit of ground to make up on her age-mate.

Nevertheless, win or lose, the presence of juveniles in this race adds a welcome element of the unknown into one the great British sprints and adventurous campaigning by connections is something that I’ll always applaud, for all Ger Lyons has made it apparent he needed his arm firmly twisted to give into the owners’ desire to run at York.

Lyric Fantasy’s victory in 1992 was far from trendsetting - in fact, only two renewals of the Nunthorpe between her success and that of Kingsgate Native fifteen years later featured any juveniles at all, so it’s encouraging that there’s been an uptake in willingness from owners and trainers to give this rare opportunity a real go.

Perhaps the floodgates haven’t quite opened yet, but the likes of Radiohead, Acapulco, The Platinum Queen - and hopefully Lady Iman and Spicy Marg next week – could prove rather significant waves in a tide that I think has real potential to turn.

Certainly, if we can’t have a top-class winner, I’d always take a top-class story as the next best thing and there’s plenty to go on that front surrounding the favourite, a family-owned filly whose patriarch Roger O’Callaghan overruled the trainer in order to take her chance. There’s no horse in the race younger, no jockey older than the 54-year-old Joe Fanning due to take the ride and maybe, if we really want to get ahead of ourselves, we could anoint Starman as the stallion saviour of European sprinting.

Admittedly, the current state of the race means I’m likely to find myself hunting for a bit of each-way value rather than taking the 4/1 available about Lady Iman, but if I was to prioritise what I think would be great for the sport rather than great for my own bank balance, I’d be dutching her with Spicy Marg and trusting that the young fillies will come out with their reputations enhanced even further.

I hope we’re only a winner or two away from the general view of a two-year-old running in the Nunthorpe from a bold sporting gesture, sometimes even covered with a degree of novelty into being the sensible, rational option to take for many a juvenile.

Published at 1100 BST on 14/08/25

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