Check out the latest Value Bet preview as Matt Brocklebank tackles today's Betfred 1000 Guineas and one of the supporting Group races.
Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
Matt Brocklebank's running total (including Antepost) from June 2020 to present: +188.64pts to advised stakes/prices.
Value Bet Tips: Sunday May 3
1pt win Miss Justice in 14:20 Newmarket at 14/1 (William Hill)
1pt e.w. Evolutionist in 15:35 Newmarket at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Fighting fit and proven at the trip
Looks can be deceiving but it could be a very strong running of the Betfred 1000 Guineas at Newmarket this afternoon.
The Aidan O'Brien-trained Precise is the top two-year-old from last year and understandably dominates the market, while Karl Burke's Venetian Sun doesn’t have too much ground to make up on the favourite from their Fillies’ Mile running and Precise’s stablemate True Love clearly has the class, it’s perhaps just a question of whether she’ll stay the distance strongly enough.
Given the big field and obvious depth to the race, I’d argue that stamina might come into play more than usual, even though we’re dealing with a lightning-quick surface after the forecast overnight showers didn’t come to pass.
There are a number of fillies open to improvement, with Domina Ignis potentially the one to take from Newbury after her rather luckless final furlong challenge, while it wouldn’t come as a complete shock if Mubasimah proved to be a good deal sharper than when a slightly disappointing favourite in the Nell Gwyn.
An Andre Fabre-trained filly with a prep run under their belt is always a dangerous beast and the money for Oisin Murphy’s mount My Highness in the early markets has got to be seen as a positive sign, but I’m going to take a chance on the relatively easy to back EVOLUTIONIST, the apparent second-string for Burke under jockey Shane Foley.
The rain not arriving could arguably be seen as a downer for the daughter of Night Of Thunder but it’s not like she’s unproved on good to firm, having won on fast ground at the July Course here last August, and although her third to Precise in the Fillies’ Mile leaves her with something to find on the face of it, I thought she stepped up again to win at Longchamp when reappearing last month.
It was only a seven-runner Group 3 but Evolutionist travelled strongly before outstaying some well-regarded French fillies in Narissa (second) and Green Spirit (fourth), and after that performance there’s no question she’s trained on from two to three.
Burke was a fraction worried some of his bigger names hadn’t quite been performing as expected at the time of the Prix de la Grotte but Evolutionist won tidily and the stable has clearly come alive since then so she could conceivably improve again.
The 16/1 with firms offering four places looks just a bit too big to pass over.
Meehan recruit could go well
There was no shame in MISS JUSTICE’s final run for the Gosdens last October, splitting Karmology and Ambiente Amigo in the 10-furlong Pride Stakes on this course, with the subsequent Italian Group 2 winner Charlotte’s Web back in fourth. Even further back in sixth was today’s Dahlia Stakes favourite Falakeyah, so the odds looks a little skewed here to say the least.
The lightly-raced Miss Justice has since changed hands (750,000 guineas) and starts out as a five-year-old for Brian Meehan but I’m not sure that should be putting punters off, especially as we know the daughter of Justify loves to hear her hooves rattle.
Rated just 85 at the time, Miss Justice surprised a few when giving Revoir (rated 99) 8lb and a narrow beating in a Listed race at Salisbury last August and that piece of form should bring her right into the equation this afternoon.
There’s still a good chance she has further improvement in the locker and although Meehan hasn’t had a winner since September, I’d be surprised if this seemingly important acquisition wasn’t ready to do herself justice first time up.
Published at 10:45 BST on 03/05/26
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