Newmarket analysis: Desert Flower heading for Oaks after 1000 Guineas success

Sea of blue hard to resist

‘Has Flight nosed ahead there…? Is that Elwateen running huge for Saeed on the far side…? Lake Victoria is about to hit her stride up the middle…’

There were moments, in the throes of passion for want of a better phrase, during Sunday’s Betfred 1000 Guineas when Classic glory did look up for grabs. On closer and rather more pragmatic inspection, they really were only fleeting glimpses of hope if you'd opposed the market leader and the full picture of Desert Flower's overall dominance is probably not fully painted by a one-length margin over the aforementioned 28/1 outsider, Flight.

Hand on heart, I think she was miles the best.

William Buick, on the crest of a wave having won Saturday’s 2000 Guineas on Ruling Court and also the Dahlia Stakes aboard Cinderella’s Dream earlier on Sunday’s card, is at one with the Rowley Mile racecourse. He seems to know the track's idiosyncrasies better than most and his sense of timing - when to dictate, when to sit tight and, above all, when to push the button and look to kill a race off, is consistently excellent.

The ride on Ruling Court was difference-making, not only my view but also that of Kieran Shoemark who admitted he probably got his timing wrong on runner-up Field Of Gold, and while that couldn’t necessarily be said of Desert Flower's fifth straight success and second at the highest level a day later, those who took the even money and had their eyes fixed on Buick can’t have had too many moments of genuine concern.

Quickly from the starting gate, any fears over Desert Flower potentially getting marooned on the wing from stall one were put to bed straight away as Buick had her travelling comfortably at the head of the arrow in a group of seven towards the far side.

He got a little lower in the saddle just over two furlongs from the finish, but Buick held his full drive back until rising up out of the dip and the filly just kept rolling in the manner of one who will lap up at least another quarter-mile, and quite likely improve a good deal over middle-distances as the year goes on.

The uncomplicated Desert Flower was given a textbook Appleby juvenile campaign - July Course maiden into novice race, Group 2 and Group 1. After an impressive racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting, she's now passed every test and it will be hard to find fault in her claims if heading to the Oaks in a month's time.

The one to take from the race...

With last year’s champion two-year-old filly (that was a close-run thing with Desert Flower) Lake Victoria ultimately a well-held sixth on her return - looking in need of the run - and third-favourite Red Letter a further neck back in seventh having raced in the smaller group of three nearer the stands’ side, it won’t be considered the strongest Guineas ever run.

Take nothing away from Ollie Sangster, though, as his two filled the places in second and third. Flight, who quickened sharply heading into the dip, responded to Oisin Murphy’s urgings in game fashion and her connections would no doubt loved to have been positioned a lot nearer to the favourite throughout the early part of the race.

They can take great heart from the fact she ended up finishing even closer to Desert Flower than she did in both the Newmarket maiden (three and a quarter lengths) and the May Hill at Doncaster (two and a quarter lengths) last year. Whether she’ll get the chance to make it fourth time lucky is debatable, but she’s evidently trained on and will take the team to a lot more big days with a bit luck, presumably the Coronation Stakes her obvious next calling.

Simmering, who quickly consigned her moderate Newbury prep run to the past, might just have been feeling the quicker ground but stuck on really well to her credit. She’s in the Irish Guineas and the Coronation, with the Curragh surely under consideration already and especially so if there’s any rain around.

The fourth home, Shadwell’s Elwateen, is the horse to take from the race as she was the least experienced – alongside eventual fifth Chantilly Lace – and ran a cracker for Saeed bin Suroor, who also saddled maiden winner Tornado Alert to be fourth in the 2000 Guineas on his third career outing.

Elwateen had raced just the once, creating a good impression in a Kempton novice back in August before being put away for whatever reason. She appeared to take everything in her stride and was on the winner’s shoulder for the first half of the race before just becoming a little unbalanced on the undulations.

She’ll have learnt a ton from the experience and is bred to stay 10 and 12 furlongs so has all the options under the sun. Her sole entry as it stands is the Coronation at Royal Ascot but Sunday’s race hinted that might not be enough of a test for her, particularly if it comes up proper summer ground. It wouldn't be a shock to see her get supplemented for the Oaks, likewise Chantilly Lace, who is entered for the Irish version in July, but they need rapid progress to turn the tables on the winner at Epsom.

Too much speed for Epsom?

Earlier on, Shadwell’s Betfred Oaks entry Falakeyah looked very classy and on another level entirely to her six relatively stamina-laden rivals in the Betfred Pretty Polly Stakes.

The winning margin was eventually just three and a quarter-lengths over John and Thady Gosden’s 84-rated Life Is Beautiful, but the bare form can probably be marked up rather than anything else.

She wasn’t alone in getting a bit lit up in the preliminaries, tossing her head around despite having two handlers in the parade ring, but by the time she got down to the start Falakeyah looked to have settled nicely enough and was taking everything in a good deal better than some.

Her jockey Jim Crowley looked for an early lead but quickly asserted himself when it became clear nothing else was going to be allowed to stride on and she was never seriously threatened after picking up the pace and having most of the others in bother with a couple of furlongs to go.

Considering the pre-race exuberance - and that this was just her second career start after an easy all-weather win in November – Falakeyah saw the 10 furlongs out quite well and although far from guaranteed, there’s a small chance she’ll cope with another quarter-mile too based on her pedigree.

However, the Oaks is just a month away now and, seeing how much speed she showed compared to the others, perhaps 10 furlongs is as far as she’ll want to be going at this stage of her campaign. The Prix Diane could be a more suitable objective.

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