Matt Brocklebank had an 18/1 winner on Saturday with One Night Stand - now he looks ahead to Sunday's quality jumps action at Lingfield.
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Value Bet tips: Sunday, January 21
1pt win Alaphilippe in 2.25 Lingfield at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Fern Hill in 3.35 Lingfield at 14/1 (bet365)
Trust Fergal to rekindle old flame
Jumps fans have been starved of big names so far this weekend but Sunday’s action from Lingfield and Thurles looks well worth the wait after the all-weather stepped into centre stage on Saturday.
The Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (1.35) should be a decent spectacle in Ireland and it will be interesting to see if Envoi Allen can successfully concede weight all round en route to defending his Ryanair crown at Cheltenham in March.
On the face of it, he should find life tough here against Allaho – representing the same owners of course – but I’m still unconvinced Willie Mullins’ 10-year-old is even close to the horse he was before the injury layoff and perhaps Allaho's stablemate Appreciate It is the better bet here back over an intermediate trip after being ruthlessly exposed by Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase over Christmas.
There are more attractive wagers to be had at Lingfield anyway, in my view, and ALAPHILIPPE looks overpriced around 16/1 in the Weatherbys Hamilton Handicap Hurdle.
A Grade 2 novice hurdle winner in 2021, he signed off that season with an agonising defeat in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham before then missing the entire 2022/23 campaign through injury.
A belated switch to fences hasn’t worked out at all and the most recent efforts at Cheltenham and Leicester have clearly encouraged connections not to pursue that project any longer, but I thought he showed enough enthusiasm on his Carlisle comeback to show not all was lost with the 10-year-old.
The horse’s confidence can hardly be soaring, admittedly, but he’s been given over a month off to freshen up and the handicapper looks to have given him a real chance with a mark of 135 if a return to timber sparks the desired improvement.
His fine Cheltenham run came off 138 and he was rated 143 when fifth in the Albert Bartlett the season before so he's the right side of the assessor again, while a stiff test on soft ground around Lingfield should play to his strengths. He looks worth risking on balance.
Cotton onto Fern chances in marathon
L'Homme Presse can win the feature Fitzdares Fleur De Lys Chase at a short price with zero financial involvement but, in complete contrast, the Surrey National Handicap Chase - backed by the same firm - is temptingly wide open.
L’Homme Presse’s Venetia Williams stable companion Hold That Taught has blatantly rediscovered his mojo this season and looks a key horse here but he’s up another 5lb after taking advantage of a relatively soft opportunity at Bangor, and I’ll oppose those right at the head of the market with the top weight FERN HILL.
He remains lightly-raced for his age and arguably hasn’t won the number of races he ought to have, given his talent, but the form of his Uttoxeter win, when beating Super Survivor and Surrey Quest, towards the end of 2022 reads really well and he looked on the way back to that sort of level when third in the Welsh National Trial at Chepstow early last month.
Held up through the early stages that day, having previously been ridden far more prominently, he very much shaped like the first run of the season would bring him on significantly and, with the Chepstow winner bolting up in the main event subsequently, it will be disappointing if Fern Hill can’t build on that effort off a 1lb lower mark here.
His bold jumping should be a real asset around this course and I like the booking of Daryl Jacob too as he’s riding with a huge amount of confidence at the moment and has had plenty of winners for the yard in the past.
Case has also given the selection a breathing operation and fitted a first-time tongue-tie to boot, so no stone has been left unturned for what looks his principal winter target.
In short, there is plenty to like at double-figure odds.
Published at 1500 GMT on 20/01/24
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