The festive highlight that is the King George VI Chase is on Ben Linfoot's mind heading into the weekend, with the top two in the market facing different preparations.
It’s that time of year. Mariah Carey jingles her way through All I Want For Christmas Is You in Asda. Leona Lewis is telling us it’s One More Sleep in WH Smith (it’s 31). The insipid department store festive ads have been on the tele since early-November. Hold your horses, Noddy. We’re not there yet.
But the good thing about the first flashes of tinsel for racing fans is that the King George VI Chase is almost around the corner and Kempton’s Christmas highlight is on the mind heading into this weekend. That's because last year's winner and this year's favourite, Bravemansgame, is in action at Haydock, and this year’s second favourite, Shishkin, makes his seasonal return at Ascot.
It's 7/1 bar the duo in the King George antepost market and if the Irish don’t come over at Christmas, well, you can probably inflate that number. The bookmakers might well have it between these two come December 24 and so this weekend, featuring the Grade 1 Betfair Chase and the Grade 2 1965 Chase, could go a long way to deciding the fate of this year's King George.
Quite predictably, the Betfair Chase has been a better pointer to the King George over the years. Six times a horse has won the Betfair Chase and King George in the same season, thanks mainly to Kauto Star, who did the double four times, but also to Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card who also won at Kempton having been victorious at Haydock.
You have to go back to 2015 since the Betfair Chase winner last won the King George, though, and with the Haydock race going up an extra furlong and a half in distance since 2017, perhaps winning the Betfair Chase is not the pointer it once was.
Could Brave call hinder Kempton chance?
One man who has supported the Betfair Chase religiously since its inception is the sponsors' ambassador Paul Nicholls, so much so it’s quite surprising that he hasn’t won the race since Silviniaco Conti landed the 2014 renewal.
It’s not for the want of trying, with Silviniaco Conti himself (twice), Clan Des Obeaux (twice) and Frodon (twice) all meeting with defeat in the last nine years and it goes some way to explaining Bravemansgame’s appearance here in what seems to be a Plan-C scenario.
At the start of the season he was meant to come straight to the Betfair Chase before tackling the King George, then the long-range weather forecast for Haydock (wet) was seen as good reason to divert him to Wetherby for the Charlie Hall, a race that turned out to be the perfect prep for his King George challenge last year.
An unexpected defeat to Gentlemansgame this year was followed by a bullish Nicholls proclaiming a combination of fitness, his penalty and the soft ground caught him out, and that we’d see a different horse come the King George. “He’ll go straight to Kempton,” he said.
That was Plan-B, but then the long-range weather forecast didn’t predict more of a drying week in the build-up to the Betfair Chase. Perhaps it won’t be Haydock heavy. Nicholls, sensing an easier Grade 1-winning opportunity, throws Bravemansgame’s hat back into the ring, complete with ‘Daryl Jacob will ride’ curveball thanks to the somewhat out of the blue decision to send Harry Cobden to Ascot.
It's soft ground at Haydock, rather than anything worse, but will a 3m1f and a bit battle with an off-for-his-life Protektorat serve as the ideal King George preparation?
Given Bravemansgame’s best two performances last year came on the back of 58 days off (his King George win) and 81 days off (his Cheltenham Gold Cup second), it will be interesting to see how he gets on at both Haydock and Kempton following the shorter breaks.
Don't get me wrong, Nicholls, going for an astonishing 14th win in the King George next month, knows exactly what is required to win the Kempton highlight. And with four weeks between assignments, it’s refreshing to see a good horse like Bravemansgame potentially run three times before the turn of the year.
But with my punting hat on, I just wonder if it might come back to bite him if a certain rival turns up with fresher legs.
Taking the Shish?
3.43pm on February 18, 2023. That’s when it hit me. Good grief, this Shishkin, this Shishkin that has been running over two miles for three and a half years, he’s only a bloody stayer.
It was then I wrote he should run in the Gold Cup and though he didn’t, he duly went and proved that he should’ve done by running an extraordinary race in the Ryanair, where he was slow to get going, slow to get jumping, before he hauled himself into second spot up the hill.
Staying on to beat the enigmatic but strong stayer Ahoy Senor, over 3m1f in the Grade 1 Alder Hey Aintree Bowl at the Grand National meeting, after that, he underlined his potential as a staying chaser, after which Nicky Henderson stated: “The King George is the obvious one for him.”
It’s hard to argue with that assessment and with that in mind it’s hard to argue with Henderson’s strategy this weekend. A 3m1f and a bit slog around Haydock does not stand out as a sensible King George springboard for Shishkin, a horse that has had to be handled with care these last few seasons.
Going 2m5f around Ascot, the same course and distance over which he announced himself as a staying chaser to be reckoned with 10 months previously, against the same rival in Pic D’Orhy, looks a cautious but perfectly sensible plan for this horse with the King George in mind.
And while the Grade 2 1965 Chase has not supplied the King George winner in recent years, it has been close. Captain Chris won the Ascot race before finishing second at Kempton in 2012. Ditto Vautour in 2015 and Cyrname in 2019. Al Ferof won this race twice before finishing third twice in the King George. Double Shuffle was second in both races in 2017.
It’s not a bad race to tune up for the King George and it’s no surprise to see Henderson reach for the first-time cheekpieces, either. On both of his last two runs at Cheltenham and Aintree, Shishkin has run like he needs some assistance in the 'focus' department, so if he can travel better in the early stages over this trip in the new headgear, that will bode well for Kempton, too.
It’s (almost) One More Sleep until the Betfair Chase, Leona, but Shishkin, All I Want For Christmas Is You (at 7/2).
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