Two major handicaps dominate the punting landscape this weekend and our man is tackling them head-on.
- The Value Bet column enjoyed a fantastic year in 2022, registering over 140pts of profit to recommended stakes
- Matt tipped recent Newbury winners Grumpy Charley and Blenkinsop at 12/1 and 9/1, as well as Challow runner-up You Wear It Well each-way at 25/1
- The Antepost Value Bet has also produced super profits, featuring Desert Crown at 25/1 for the Derby
Value Bet tips: Saturday, January 14
1pt win Up For Parol in 2.40 Kempton at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Rathmacknee in 2.40 Kempton at 18/1 (General)
1pt win Lord Du Mesnil in 3.00 Warwick at 8/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred, BoyleSports)
1pt win Guetapan Collonges in 3.00 Warwick at 15/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Cross doubles:
0.5pts e.w. double Up For Parol (2.40 Kempton 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) & Guetapan Collonges (3.00 Warwick 1/5 1,2,3,4)
0.5pts e.w. double Rathmacknee (2.40 Kempton 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) & Guetapan Collonges (3.00 Warwick 1/5 1,2,3,4)
0.5pts e.w. double Up For Parol (2.40 Kempton 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) & Lord Du Mesnil (3.00 Warwick 1/5 1,2,3,4)
0.5pts e.w. double Rathmacknee (2.40 Kempton 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) & Lord Du Mesnil (3.00 Warwick 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Recommended each-way doubles are at prices advertised above...
Saturday’s racing programme in Britain is frankly all about the two big-field handicaps at Warwick and Kempton and, not wishing to stagnate amidst the back-drop of mid-January blues, I’ll be looking to get a little creative.
Having narrowed the shortlists down to just a couple in both the Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase and the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, as well as the usual singles I’m also going to be throwing a few quid at the each-way, cross-doubles in the hope of at least hitting the frame with something in each race.
The Lanzarote is first up and in truth I haven’t got a huge amount against Outlaw Peter or Green Glory, besides their skinny prices, and if Charles Byrnes’ horse sluices in off his revised UK mark of 127 then I’ll happily hold my hands up and move on.
I suppose one could argue that jockey Philip Byrnes – the trainer’s son – has no experience of riding around Kempton, though he has won four of his eight starts in this country so far including one at Cheltenham so I may be clutching at straws.
Progressive novice Green Glory may be too well handicapped for it to matter anyway, but I’m casting the net much wider and fancy last year’s sixth UP FOR PAROL to outrun his long odds.
Granted, he’s one of three in here that haven’t run yet this season (Fifty Ball and Stag Horn the other pair), but he’s definitely flying under the radar as a result of that and it’s not like trainer Jamie Snowden is scratching around for winners.
The opposite is in fact true, with Snowden saddling three winners in the past fortnight, and although a prep run might have been ideal, Up For Parol gets in here off a decent mark so it could have been the plan to arrive fresh for a little while.
Last year he ran from a mark of 133, having been raised 6lb for winning at Haydock in December, and he ran extremely well. Looking back at the 2022 edition, it’s notable that eventual winner Cobblers Dream and runner-up Highway One O Two were basically first and second throughout, and not a lot got into it from out the back.
Gavin Sheehan had Up For Parol towards the rear until halfway, despite sitting far more handily when winning on his previous start, and was perhaps inevitably caught a bit flat-footed when the tempo really increased.
Being beaten just eight lengths was a decent effort in the circumstances and, having lost his way rather afterwards, he’s slipped down the ratings to a mark of 129, just 2lb higher than the aforementioned handicap success in the north-west.
Sheehan won’t be making the same mistake twice as, on the whole, I rate him up with the very best when it comes to judging pace in a race, but there are three or four genuine front-runners in this field so I don’t see a lack of pace arising this time anyway.
He should run well and I’m also quite keen on Nicky Henderson’s RATHMACKNEE after his slightly strange Doncaster win early last month.
He still had three horses in front of him at the last but found another gear on the run to the line to get up cheekily in the end from Gaelik Coast and Fine Casting.
The latter has won since off the same mark at Haydock to the give the form a boost and Rathmacknee smacks of a horse only really beginning to fulfil his potential this season after looking a shell of a horse in the past.
To be fair to him, his saddle slipped on his seasonal comeback at Cheltenham in November but the two-mile trip was too short for him that day regardless and the extra three and a half furlongs on Town Moor last time obviously helped.
He’ll probably want three miles in time, based on his pedigree, but moving up to Saturday’s Kempton trip should be fine at this stage and Henderson is going for a fifth career Lanzarote success.
I concede really bad ground could be a slight concern for a horse switching from good going at Doncaster, but Jet Away has sired plenty of soft-ground winners in the past and I try not to worry much about conditions at Kempton as it can often be deceiving.
Onto the Classic Chase and, seeing as I’m going ‘two-by-two’ and have some big-priced fancies at Kempton, I’m content to be a shade more conservative here.
Having said that, Willie Mullins’ Mr Incredible has to be taken on as he had become very moody when in the care of Henry De Bromhead and his erratic jumping is a bit of a worry too.
Warwick is a serious jumping test for any chaser and it was hard not to be impressed by the way GUETAPAN COLLONGES tackled the fences here on his seasonal return back in November.
That shouldn’t really have come as much of a surprise as his full-sister Fontaine Collonges won here on just her second chase start in November 2021, since when she’s progressed to a mark of 137 for Venetia Williams.
Guetapan Collonges could still be well handicapped having gone up 6lb to 126 for beating well-backed favourite Reilly at this venue, and it’s worth highlighting the front two came 24 lengths clear of two subsequent winners in Rocky’s Treasure and Favori De Sivola.
Charlie Longsdon’s charge has now won his last three completed starts, the unfortunate Sedgefield fall coming when 'over-jumping' in a match race back in March, and although stamina for this marathon distance has to be taken on trust, he shaped like he’ll stay all day and we know he handles heavy ground on account of his wide-margin Wetherby win 12 months ago. I'd made him the most likely winner of this and have to back him accordingly given he's third/fourth favourite.
The other one I want on side is the mud-loving LORD DU MESNIL, who seems to get on extremely well with Paul O’Brien and looked right back to himself reunited with Saturday’s rider at Bangor in November.
This horse’s fine Rowland Meyrick second was the highlight of a largely forgettable campaign last time around but the assessor has finally cut him some considerable slack and there was absolutely no shame in finding only Dan Skelton’s subsequent Newbury hero too strong on his return to action. Especially considering he ran without the usual cheekpieces – which are back on Saturday.
Lord Du Mesnil was due to reappear at his beloved Haydock later in November before being taken out on account of the ground which was officially soft but deemed good to soft by Timeform. He’ll certainly have his conditions this weekend and he’s still rated 3lb lower than for his most recent win (albeit back in February 2021) in spite of being nudged back up a pound for Bangor.
He was held up on that occasion but tends to be a lot closer to the pace and it’s not hard to see O’Brien looking to pick up an ideal slot in behind likely early pace-enforcer Commodore.
Venetia Williams’ grey is another to consider – not purely due to his potentially holding a tactical edge around this speed-favouring course – but in the end I was happy to conclude that he may just be a little too high in the weights based on his Cheltenham effort when last seen.
Elsewhere, Fortescue hated the whole experience when fitted with cheekpieces for the first time in the Welsh National at Chepstow, while Grumpy Charley obviously did this column a favour in the Mandarin at Newbury last time but he might just get a little too far back for comfort on this occasion, and there’s less chance of him making up late ground if finding himself well off the pace at halfway.
Published at 1420 GMT on 13/01/23
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