July Cup: The big questions including does Notable Speech have the gears for six furlongs?

Has Notable Speech got the gears?

It was shaping up to be one of the least inspiring July Cups of all time, so fair play to Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. The supplementary addition of 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech injects some much-needed class into the race and it says something about the current sprint division that he was slotted straight in as favourite despite all 10 of his career starts coming over a mile.

Of course, he wouldn’t be the first horse with a similar profile to drop in trip and win a July Cup, far from it.

Ajdal famously came back from a mile-and-a-half in the Derby to win this race in 1987, Stravinsky and Mozart both dropped backed from the seven furlongs of the Jersey Stakes to win it for Aidan O’Brien around the turn of the century, Les Arcs had been hurdling around Cartmel before his July Cup win and then there was Dream Ahead, U S Navy Flag and Alcohol Free, who all dropped back from a mile to win this race in more recent years.

Yet the standard time for six furlongs on the July Course is quicker than Newbury, the same as York and very similar to Goodwood, so we’re not dealing with a testing six here, although pace and ground conditions can put more of an emphasis on stamina and there is, of course, the rising ground at the end.

Notable Speech has always been a miler with gears and, slightly surprisingly, his only previous home game at Newmarket came when he landed the 2000 Guineas in great style on the Rowley Mile in the May of last year.

His stallion, Dubawi, is more famous for siring progeny over further, but he does have some previous with sprinters, notably Naval Crown and Creative Force, who both struck at the very top level for Appleby.

Further to that his dam is by a sprinter in Invincible Spirit and there are sprinters scattered throughout his pedigree, so his bloodlines do attest to the theory that he might have all the tools required to thrive at six furlongs.

Perhaps even more importantly, in two starts this season he has noticeably shaped like he has wanted to go quicker, as he was keen at Newbury in the Lockinge and then he pulled too hard in a very slowly-run Queen Anne at Royal Ascot (watch the free video replay, below).

This is a very different environment than he’s used to and you wouldn’t imagine it will be easy to transfer his abilities, but a combination of potential and opportunity sees him thrown into the mix and the race is all the better for him being in there.

Could the 3yos strike another blow?

Nine July Cups have been won by three-year-olds this century and while it looked as though Field Of Gold might be the best of the Classic generation coming out of Royal Ascot his peers have been doing pretty good in the big races over the last few weeks.

First Whirl knuckled down to see off the strong-travelling older horse Kalpana in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh and then Delacroix bounced back from his Derby flop by sinking runaway Prince Of Wales’s hero Ombudsman in a fascinating Coral-Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday.

Both of those are trained by Aidan O’Brien and he has trained four three-year-olds to win the July Cup, so we have to give due respect to his Whistlejacket and Ides Of March who make up 40% of the 3yo challenge at the five-day stage.

Whistlejacket won the July Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago and while his three-year-old campaign hasn’t quite taken off yet he met trouble in the Commonwealth Cup and there is the suspicion that he’s got more under the bonnet than we’ve seen so far this season.

His full-brother Little Big Bear was sent off joint-favourite for this race in 2023 before finishing last and being retired, so connections will be hoping Whistlejacket doesn’t suffer a similar fate.

Whether he’s shown enough this season to warrant being a 7/1 chance, I’m not sure, and there might not be much between him and 50/1 stablemate Ides Of March, certainly on their Navan clash, for all that his yard companion fared even worse than he did in the Commonwealth Cup.

Commonwealth Cup seventh, Big Mojo, also runs for Mick Appleby, while Godolphin, not content with running just Notable Speech, also have Symbol Of Honour and the also-supplemented Spy Chief amongst their arsenal.

Can any of these three-year-olds take advantage of the 6lb weight-for-age allowance? That remains to be seen, and I must admit I think it looks unlikely, but Symbol Of Honour is the one the bookies see as the biggest threat to the older horses and it’s difficult to argue with that assessment.

Barred from the Commonwealth Cup as he’s a gelding, he was a non-runner from the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but had looked a three-year-old sprinter on the up when he landed the Carnarvon and Sandy Lane Stakes within a week in May.

He’ll have to step up again on that form to win this, but he gives Godolphin a very strong July Cup hand combined with the proven class of Notable Speech and the untapped potential of Jersey Stakes runner-up Spy Chief.

Can Wathnan tighten their grip on the division?

The season’s standout sprinter so far has been Wathnan Racing’s French-trained son of Territories Lazzat, who put in a super performance to see off Japanese raider Satono Reve in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He would be a strong favourite for this race on the back of that, but in his absence Wathnan have three possibles for the July Cup headed by the ultra-consistent filly Flora Of Bermuda.

The likely choice of James Doyle, Andrew Balding’s daughter of Dark Angel has been in the top five beaten four lengths or less in her last seven runs – four of those coming at the very top level.

Her best efforts came on soft ground in the Champions Sprint at Ascot, when beaten half a length in third, and on fast ground at York in the Duke Of York, when beaten a neck in second, so she’s tough and versatile and she has the pace to deal with the demands of this track.

Indeed, her performance in third in the Jubilee was not unlike Mill Stream’s last year and he came out of Royal Ascot to win this race, so she could well take her turn in winning here and it’s no surprise she’s the 5/1 second favourite.

On that basis she’s the clear Wathnan number one, but owner-mates Night Raider and Rogue Lightning won’t be without their supporters.

Night Raider has a bit to find, but like Whistlejacket you just suspect he’s capable of more. Perhaps he’s just a better horse on an artificial surface, maybe he needs to be let loose on the lead, but if he returned to the form of his Newcastle win last November he’d come into calculations.

There are bits and pieces of form that would bring Rogue Lightning into the equation, too, but, when it comes to the crunch, you feel a win for either of the Wathnan B-team would require a fairly freaky set of circumstances.

What about a bounce back from leftfield?

Plenty of the field have something to prove and none more so than perennial top of the market magnet Inisherin who has been beaten at 11/8, 5/2 and 3/1 in three of his last four runs.

The first of those was in this race last year when he was outpaced, something that can also explain away his defeat behind Lazzat at Royal Ascot.

Indeed, the question he has to answer is ‘is he quick enough to win a July Cup’ and you wouldn’t point to his Duke Of York win in May as evidence that he is. He got away with that race as he was niggled early, traded at 59/1 in-running and was helped by Night Raider turning it into a real test at the trip.

He’s not for me at the prices and I think it’s more likely Believing bounces back here after her defeat at 3/1 in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot.

She’s right in between a stiff five and an easy six when it comes to her optimum trip, so you can see why she went for that race, but things didn’t work out for her after she was ridden prominently in the unfavoured far-side group.

I find it easy to forgive her that as she wasn’t beaten far on her first start for 10 weeks and this speedy six could be right in her wheelhouse.

She’ll love the fast ground, as well, and she could provide Billy Loughnane with a first Group 1 success, just like Oxted did for Cieren Fallon in this race a few years ago.

As for the outsiders, the enigma that is Jasour might have to be considered for each-way purposes.

He looked a sprinter to follow when he won the July Stakes as a juvenile here in 2023, but his career has been blighted by his refusal to settle and he must be an immense source of frustration for Clive Cox, a master at training sprinters.

Wind surgery was followed by running in a hood and last time a tongue-tie was added to the headgear. Maybe Cox is getting there with the puzzle that is Jasour, as he settled well enough to finish strongly into sixth behind Lazzat in the Jubilee.

However, the mercurial grey comes with a serious wealth warning, and I’ll leave any firm decisions on selections until later in the week once the final field and draw are revealed.

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