We take a detailed look at the Timeform Pace Map for the 2021 Juddmonte International at York and consider who may be best suited to how the race is likely to unfold.
Where can pace projections be found?
Timeform’s ‘Pace Map’ (available under the Race Pass ‘Hints’ tab to signed-in customers) uses past performances to assign an Early Pace Figure (EPF) to each runner (EPF 1-EPF 5) in the field, while using a colour scale to represent the likelihood of the horse recording that particular EPF, white indicating the lowest probability through to a deep red indicating the highest.
Why is pace important?
In very simple terms, the pace of any given race can have a significant baring on how that event unfolds. A horse allowed an easy time of things at the front can ultimately appear to outperform their raw ability, while conversely if the early tempo is too hot - whether that’s a single runner going off really quickly or several rivals getting into a battle for the lead – then those ridden with more patience towards the rear of the field may be at an advantage. In theory, if all horses in a given race possess the same level of ability, the one who races most efficiently should emerge on top.
What does the Pace Map indicate for this year’s York feature?
Likely leaders
With no out-and-out front runner, and no pace maker being fielded by one of the bigger yards, Love could be most likely to set the pace to the race. Her tactics have been varied throughout her career so far, having made all to win twice as a juvenile, been held up in the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks, before returning to front-running when making a successful start to the current campaign in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. Alenquer is an interesting one as he’s mixed things up to date too. Trainer William Haggas is on record stating he felt the horse was given far too much to do on his last start in France so reverting to a considerably more prominent ride would make sense on that score, especially considering he’s possibly a colt with St Leger pretensions next month.
Tracking the pace
Alcohol Free, Juan Elcano and Jim Bolger's Mac Swiney look the most likely candidates to race in behind Love and a sedate early gallop should in theory help Andrew Balding’s filly, for whom this looks your archetypal ‘shot to nothing’ after Group One victories over a mile and at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. With some commentators even suggesting she’d have had the pace for the Commonwealth Cup earlier in the season, a relative test of speed over stamina looks certain to play to Alcohol Free’s strengths.
Hold-up horses
Speaking on a Great British Racing & QIPCO British Champion Series press conference call on Monday morning, jockey David Egan spoke of a strongly-run 10 furlongs possibly being the ideal trip for Mishriff, whose second in the King George behind Adayar last month represents one of the strongest pieces of form coming into the race. He can race keenly, something which no doubt contributed to Egan opting to hold him up last at Ascot, and may not get things going all his way in what looks a potential falsely-run affair on Wednesday. Mohaafeth is also likely to make his challenge more from off the pace than on it. He made a sweeping move from the rear to lay down a bold bid in last month’s Sky Bet York Stakes over the same course, only for his effort to flatten out, and consequently has something to prove, especially now moving up to Group One level for the first time.
Who will benefit in the most likely scenario?
Estimating where rivals are likely to be positioned throughout the early stages of a race is one thing, but applying all of this to pin down who will be best served by those particular circumstances is clearly the real challenge. In what looks like being a far from guaranteed end-to-end gallop, those positioned more towards the head of affairs should be prioritised and the big question has to be whether LOVE or Alenquer have the requisite speed to kick off the front and repel the more likely closers. Few can match Ryan Moore when it comes to executing a front-running ride around York and Aidan O’Brien’s filly might be happier back here over 10 furlongs than she was when finishing a place behind Mishriff in the King George. She’s very tough to pass on her day and could prove an able deputy to the absent St Mark’s Basilica.
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