It's Northumberland Plate day at Newcastle on Saturday and Matt Brocklebank has three tips to consider.
Value Bet tips: Saturday June 25
1pt win Glen Shiel in 2.25 Newcastle at 6/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)
1pt e.w. Tiger Jet in 2.55 Newcastle at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Graphite in 3.30 Newcastle at 40/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
New distance could unlock improvement
Nicholas T caused a 33/1 shock when stepped up from a mile and a half to win the 2021 Northumberland Plate and GRAPHITE may be able to pull off something similar in the Newcastle marathon this Saturday.
Nicholas T had never gone beyond 12 furlongs (on the Flat) prior to last June, when a late burst between rivals saw him gun down Hochfeld close home and while the TJ Kent-trained Graphite isn’t a cast-iron stayer on pedigree, he’s often shaped like a true test would play to his strengths.
Never has that been more apparent than when beating HMS President and Restorer in a mile and a half handicap at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting last August, after which the trainer admitted the then seven-year-old had taken a few runs through the spring and summer to reach peak fitness.
With that in mind, the gelding’s two public outings during May and June this term were presumably expected to be needed, so the fact he showed so much promise when third on the all-weather at Kempton last time bodes well in terms of him coming back to the boil this weekend.
Even his very best might not be good enough to win in this much warmer company, with the likes of dual Group One winner Trueshan in the field, but we’re all in the dark as to what he might be capable of over two miles, he’s only 2lb higher than when last successful (1lb well-in after the improved effort last time), and he has a decent draw in three which should allow Ray Dawson to sit where he wants and watch the race unfold.
A really prominent pitch seems unlikely, given the questions around the grey’s stamina, but he’s unlikely to be buried right at the back and that tactical speed he possesses should be a good weapon as the tempo can increase quite sharply in the home straight here.
Complete outsider Graphite rates a tempting each-way bet at 40/1 with extra places on offer with Hills and Sky Bet.
Jet to fire under low weight in Vase
The other big betting heat at Gosforth Park is the Plate’s consolation race – the Jenningsbet Northumberland Vase Handicap and Evaluation heads the weights having just missed out on a shot at the big one.
He was knocking about in Class 5 handicaps for Sir Michael Stoute but Keith Dalgleish looks to have turned him inside out, prompting four straight wins over staying trips since returning to action in early-May.
He’s got a 5lb penalty for the latest impressive success at Musselburgh but looks the right favourite here.
One of the other market leaders is recent York winner Zealandia, but at a wild price I’m willing to chance Brian Ellison’s TIGER JET, who was spotted doing some good late work when sixth to Zealandia in the Queen Mother’s Cup (female amateur riders) on the Knavesmire.
He looked like he might be tailed off halfway up the straight but was only getting going approaching the line last time, beaten under nine lengths in the end, and it won’t be a massive surprise if stamina proves to be his forte in this sphere as he’s got form at two and a half miles over hurdles.
The six-year-old maiden obviously needs a massive career best, but he’s made just eight racecourse appearances in his life, four on the Flat, and it’s fair to suggest Ellison may have been targeting this meeting for a while as Tiger Jett showed he quite liked the Tapeta surface when second to a progressive subsequent winner in a 10-furlong novice event here back in February.
Professional handling is bound to help this time, with Cam Hardie taking over in the saddle, and he sneaks in under low weight, in receipt of more than a stone from Evaluation at the top.
Doyle to deliver from the front in Chipchase
Trueshan isn’t the only Group One winner running on the card at Newcastle and GLEN SHIEL is surely the bet at 6/1 in the Pertemps Network Chipchase Stakes.
The market is dominated by William Haggas’ lightly-raced filly Sense Of Duty and her profile is undeniably appealing but there’s no evidence she’ll handle a switch to all-weather racing and I’m consequently keen to take her on at skinny odds.
By contrast, this is very much Glen Shiel’s territory, his course form reading 13211 and while he was a little below his peak in the spring this year, he’s another horse who tends to take a run or two to find his form.
He went winless through 2021, having signed off the previous campaign with that career high in the Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot, but he was mixing with the very best all last term and still clocked some fantastic efforts in defeat.
Second to Dream Of Dreams at Royal Ascot, and runner again behind Creative Force when defending his Champions Day crown in October, he’d obviously have an outstanding chance of winning this weekend if bringing that sort of level to the table, and I refuse to believe he’s a spent force based on the two spins in May.
The Platinum Jubilee was clearly the plan again this month but quick ground saw Glen Shiel ruled out – a Chipchase win would be ample compensation at this stage of his career and, from stall nine towards the stands’ side, I can see him bossing this lot from the front end under Hollie Doyle.
Published at 1500 BST on 24/06/22
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