Matt Brocklebank can't resist an early bet on a big handicap at Ascot next week, while he also considers recent developments in the Coral Welsh National and Paddy Power Chase.
Handicap Hints Tips: Saturday December 20
1pt win Fiercely Proud in Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
Is the d’Or ajar for Ascot hopeful?
Ascot’s big pre-Christmas meeting is one I always look forward to immensely. I’ve never attended a jumps meeting at the track at all, I must admit, but will have to make every attempt to get there one year as there are normally some really exciting races and a good atmosphere at this fixture (so I'm told).
The big handicaps next Saturday are the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase and the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle, the former run over a trip just shy of three miles and won for the past two years by Victtorino. He’s back to defend his crown and brings precisely the same handicap mark (143) as was the case 12 months ago, although his recent run in the Coral Gold Cup was nowhere near as encouraging as last’s third in the same event behind Kandoo Kid.
Pic Roc and Hyland were my two to take from Newbury this time around and they are both entered up here, while In d’Or – a former stablemate of Victtorino – made a lovely start since his £220,000 switch to Fergal O’Brien’s (bought out of the David Maxwell dispersal) when third to Welcom To Cartiers at Sandown last Friday.
Raised just 1lb to 134, he has winning Ascot form in the book from last winter and I’m hoping a two-week turnaround isn’t considered too tight. The fact he’s 50/1 (bet365) suggests he might not be an intended runner but we’ll watch on with interest as current favourite Blow Your Wad has flattered to deceive once or twice in the past and looks the sort of horse I'd be happy enough to oppose.
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Impressive Greatwood Hurdle winner Alexei tops the weights for the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle and one suspects he’s coming to a bit of a fork in the road, especially considering how open the Unibet Champion Hurdle division appears to be at present.
Win this from 147 and Joe Tizzard’s youngster is fully entitled to be looking for his place at the top table, but it’s not going to be simple for a five-year-old to overcome 12-0 and see off a bunch of similarly progressive rivals in a race of this nature.
Chief among them would appear to be Wilful, a name that has been touted for this since his very well-advertised third behind Celtic Dino and Alexei in the ‘Welsh Champion’ at Chepstow. The gut instinct was to advise some caution but Jonjo and AJ O’Neill aren’t just having runners again now but might just have hit the ground running in the past 10 days or so. Wilful is understandably vying for favouritism.
The horse I’ve wanted to be with above all others in this spot for a few weeks now, though, is FIERCELY PROUD and he should definitely be backed while the double-figure prices remain intact. We all saw the weight of late money behind Pic Roc at Newbury last month and I’m fairly convinced Fiercely Proud has been targeted at this particular prize in a similar vein, having won it last year.
The horses he beat on December 21 2024 were Kabral Du Mathan and Be Aware, who are now both with Dan Skelton and have increased their official ratings from 131 and 137 to 154 and 147 respectively.
So while Fiercely Proud may strictly be 7lb higher than when successful 12 months ago, there’s little doubt he remains a very well-handicapped horse and it won’t have been lost on many readers that he’s a full stone better off with Alexei for his reappearance run when fifth in last month’s Greatwood at Cheltenham.
This is a horse who lost his way completely towards the end of last term but he came into Ascot following a very similar prep (sixth to Burdett Road in last year’s Greatwood) and, a bit like In d’Or above, I’m a sucker for a horse with proven Ascot experience. I reckon he might be at least half the current prices on offer now come the day.
O’Connell a big improver in Chepstow frame
The Coral Welsh National market often remains a relatively malleable picture right up to final declarations and we’ve had some significant developments over the past week or so. There’s a new clear favourite for starters in the shape of last year’s runner-up Jubilee Express, representing Sam Thomas and that yard’s principal backer, Dai Walters.
He was second behind Val Dancer last year on the back of a 282-day layoff and is far more race-ready this time after an inauspicious Cheltenham comeback and Saturday’s defeat of Collectors Item in the Chepstow trial.
The 4lb penalty he picks up will take him to 10-3 if current top-weight Intense Raffles stands his ground and, having been partnered by Lorcan Williams last weekend, Dylan Johnston is no doubt going to be back on board claiming 3lb.
Collectors Item seems likely to reoppose (4lb better off and officially 3lb ahead of the handicapper) and perhaps he’s the one to be marking up seeing as his yard has been so slow to get going this autumn. The O’Neill-trained eight-year-old stayed on to be second behind Mr Vango in last December’s London National at Sandown and still looks to be maturing into a strong stayer after a dozen career starts over fences.
Mr Vango is also heading for Chepstow if emerging from Saturday’s Becher Chase in good shape. He put up a herculean effort to go down by a short-head to Twig on seasonal debut at Aintree and he’s another who would be 3lb well-in if making the final field on December 27.
This year’s London National was fought out (on decent enough ground) by a couple more Welsh National possibles in O’Connell and Hung Jury, the West Yorkshire raider getting the better of the argument to the tune of almost four lengths (replay below).
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I loved the way he pricked his ears and really looked for the final fence and looks another big improver for Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith.
O’Connell’s victory was another decent little boost for the form of last month’s Cumberland Handicap Chase at Carlisle, in which Iron Bridge was only narrowly denied. That came at a time when the O’Neills were barely having any runners so the general 25/1 about the 2023 Welsh National second looks to have a bit of juice in it still.
Majeste-ic suggestion for Paddy Power
I’ll not be venturing into Ireland much for the purposes of this column but the entries for the Paddy Power Chase popped up in midweek and it’s 12/1 the field at the moment.
Minella Foru, Anibale Fly, Auvergnat, School Boy Hours and Perceval Legallois have carried the JP McManus silks to victory in the past decade and he snapped up 2023 winner Meetingofthewaters not long after too so it’s obviously a race that means a lot to him.
And lo and behold, we have a pair of McManus horses topping the early betting, Henry De Bromhead’s Waterford Whispers and the Gordon Elliott-trained Down Memory Lane, winner of Saturday’s Foxrock Handicap Chase over two and a half miles at Navan.
Arguably the most intriguing McManus horse at this stage is Sa Majeste, who was a one-paced third in last season’s Kim Muir and didn’t really get the race run to suit over shorter on his seasonal return at Punchestown.
He can run off 139 in this and it’s worth recalling he was sent off at just 5/1 for the 2024 Coral Cup from a BHA mark of 140.
Published at 15:30 GMT on 10/12/25
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