Day three at the Qatar Goodwood Festival and, with the mud flying, our expert is looking to predict a few potential upsets.
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Value Bet tips: Thursday, August 3
1pt e.w. Baltic Voyage in 1.50 Goodwood at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Caernarfon in 3.35 Goodwood at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Alpha Crucis in 4.45 Goodwood at 22/1 (NON-RUNNER)
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Voyage to kick on after opening success
After Wednesday's deluge of rain, it seems sensible to tread with caution on what could be very deep ground and, with the card looking trappy on day three, I’ll be keeping the staking plan pretty tight.
That said, one race well worth exploring is the opening Coral Kincsem Handicap in which Perfuse is clearly the main attraction with Ryan Moore in the saddle for the first time.
A son of Lope De Vega, he predictably handled the heavy ground well en route to winning his first novice at Nottingham in May and then proved his versatility when doubling up under the penalty in a five-runner affair at Doncaster.
He was sent off favourite for the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot and ran a cracking race on the face of it, just sitting too close to what turned out to be a brutally-strong pace.
Sir Michael Stoute’s three-year-old – who clearly possesses Group-race potential – gets another chance off the same mark (94) and has obvious claims back over 10 furlongs on soft ground.
He’s certainly not the only one with further improvement in them, mind, and the one I’m keen to have on side at a much bigger price is Ralph Beckett’s BALTIC VOYAGE.
Beckett also runs the soft-ground winning Promoter who is back from a two-month break and he’s not out of it, with this sort of test likely to suit, but stablemate Baltic Voyage looks ready to take off now after finally breaking through in a Ripon handicap last month.
This well-bred son of Frankel has seemingly been a source of frustration for connections as he ran four times without success as a juvenile before being gelded over the winter.
However, his two-year-old efforts included a very decent fourth in York’s Convivial Maiden, in which 2000 Guineas second Hi Royal was third, and a staying-on fourth to recent Bahrain Trophy winner and St Leger contender Castle Way in a Newmarket nursery.
Beckett was always likely to get the best out of him at some stage this time around and, following a couple of attempts over a mile and a half at York and Salisbury, the return to 10 furlongs on his favoured soft ground sparked the improvement in North Yorkshire last time.
I'm not going to hold the fact he beat largely exposed handicappers that day against him as he fairly bolted up and I reckon that sort of experience against older horses might just stand him in good stead up 6lb back against the three-year-olds in a race that won’t be for the faint-hearted.
With stable jockey Rob Hornby on Promoter, Beckett has turned to Hollie Doyle, who has yet to ride for the yard this season but has had two winners from eight rides for Beckett over the years, plus a second, a third, and two fourths to boot.
Take a chance on Channon's filly in Nassau
The William Haggas-trained Desert Hero won the aforementioned King George V at Ascot and is the closest I came to a bet in the Gordon Stakes given his apparent stamina, but I’d rather hang fire and have a dart at Blue Rose Cen and Nashwa, who take up a considerable chunk of the market in the Qatar Nassau Stakes.
Nashwa probably has the best form and was right back on it in the Falmouth after disappointing behind the reopposing Al Husn at Newmarket, although of the pair it’s French ace Blue Rose Cen who looks the exciting one.
She's obviously very talented as she keeps turning up and winning top races, with connections possibly even eyeing a crack at the Arc if all goes to plan here, but she’s yet to beat any real stars along the way and I’m not convinced CAERNARFON’s overall body of work is all that far behind the big two here.
Granted, her win strike-rate reads just 2-10 to this point and she's yet to break through as a three-year-old after ending last term with a Listed triumph at Newmarket (soft), but that doesn’t tell the whole story as she was a running-on fourth in the 1000 Guineas and then ran a blinder in the Oaks when not quite seeing out the trip (replay below).
Last time she was beaten three lengths by the boys in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, despite the fast ground not playing to her strengths, and Thursday will be the first time she’s ever run over 10 furlongs on soft which looks just about her ideal conditions based on what we’ve seen so far.
Caernarfon has been held onto in her three starts this season but was ridden more prominently on a few occasions at two and Connor Beasley might look to change things up again, with little early pace on in the Nassau. He won’t want to give the French raider a massive tactical advantage, put it that way, and providing she’s close enough turning in I reckon she’ll give a very good account. Caernarfon has got to be the bet at 16/1-plus.
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Moore handicapper worth second glance
I was all for leaving the four non-ITV races alone but the Buccellati Handicap – a new addition to the meeting – features another hot-pot who can be opposed.
The massively-progressive Isle Of Jura has made a mockery of his handicap mark in two starts at Newbury and Newmarket and comes here officially 8lb well-in following the easy July Course win, but both victories have come on good ground and anyone taking a skinny price is guessing that he’ll cope fine with the contrasting conditions.
He was well beaten on good to soft at Thirsk in June and while I’d admit he’s improved almost out of recognition since then, there are some proven mudlarks at huge prices here.
Gary Moore’s Novus is dead interesting if turning out again after Tuesday’s near-miss, but stablemate ALPHA CRUCIS stands out a little further down the weights.
He’s looked a bit of a handicap project since qualifying with three relatively quick runs at the back-end of his two-year-old season and so it proved as he defied an opening mark of 72 when stepped up to a mile on soft ground at Windsor in April.
It’s the next run at Epsom (also soft) that interests me most with this race in mind as I’m convinced he should have won that day, Jason Watson committing some way from the finish to bag a spot on the stands’ rail and looking to have the race in safe keeping with a furlong to travel (traded at the minimum 1.01 on the Betfair Exchange).
In the end he was picked off by a conservatively-ridden rival who came from the clouds but Alpha Crucis may have just been getting a little lonely out in front as he appeared to respond again on being passed.
I can forgive the subsequent low-key effort at Kempton when not unduly punished on route to finishing fifth behind subsequent Britannia Stakes runner-up New Endeavour as the drop back to seven furlongs on the all-weather didn’t look ideal, and I certainly don’t mind his wide draw here given they might all be looking to head over more towards the stands’ side.
Published at 1500 BST on 02/08/23
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