Andrew Asquith is back to preview the action on Trials day at Cheltenham on Saturday and has two recommended bets.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday January 27
1pt win Theatre Man in the 12.40 Cheltenham at 10/1 (General)
2pts win Excello in the 1.15 Cheltenham at 7/1 (William Hill, 888sport, Unibet)
The Timeform Novices’ Chase has built a reputation of producing future Cheltenham Festival winners in recent years, Mister Whitaker in 2018 going on to win the sadly now defunct Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase, Simply The Betts going on to be successful in the Plate in 2020 and Stage Star famously going on to Grade 1 glory in the Golden Miller last season, while Imperial Aura, who finished runner-up to Simply The Betts, also tasted success at the Festival in the Novices’ Handicap.
It is therefore a race to keep a very close eye on and this year’s renewal has attracted another representative field. It is no surprise to see Ginny’s Destiny put in favourite given he took the scalp of subsequent winner and potentially high-class Grey Dawning (albeit in receipt of 3lb) over this course and distance in a good novices’ chase at the December meeting, and a mark of 147 more than likely still underestimates him.
At a top-price 4/1, I am more than happy to look elsewhere, though, and the horse who interests me most is the Richard Bandey-trained THEATRE MAN, who has been leaving the impression he will relish the drop back to around two and a half miles.
He has shaped with plenty of promise in two starts over fences so far at just short of three miles at Newbury, going with plenty of zest from the front on chase debut and largely impressing with some fast and fluent leaps (was a little untidy at the fifth). Theatre Man was closed down around three from home, but he kept grinding away and was only beaten by a handicap blot who has since franked the form (won from a 10lb higher mark next time and finished second from a further 7lb higher mark on his latest start).
Theatre Man was sent off favourite for his latest start and again went with plenty of enthusiasm, him and the eventual winner going back and forth with each other at the head of affairs, and he was still in with every chance jumping the last – he traded at 1.6 in-running on Betfair. However, he was basically outstayed on the run-in and finished third, but the winner, Brave Kingdom, is held in high regard by Paul Nicholls – holds entries in the National Hunt Chase and Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival – and I’m convinced Theatre Man can prove himself well handicapped under the right circumstances.
The ground is currently good to soft, soft in places at the time of writing and, with scattered showers forecast for the rest of the week, we should be looking at perfect jumping ground. Theatre Man is often ridden positively and, while there are several other pace setters among the entries, I don’t mind that at Cheltenham, as the pace often holds up in the better races, even away from the Old Course. Theatre Man’s bold-jumping running style should see him to good effect round here and I think he’s a good bet at around 10/1 given he’s very much unexposed, and strongly fancied to relish this intermediate trip - while his trainer, who knows the time of day, has a £47 level-stakes profit at Cheltenham.
A niggling doubt is that he also holds an entry in a novices’ handicap chase at Hereford on Monday, but that race is worth significantly less, so hopefully connections are willing to roll the dice at this bigger prize on Saturday.
There is another cracking two and a half mile handicap chase just 35 minutes later where a few regular faces have been entered. Fugitif did this column a turn when getting up in the dying strides to win over course and distance in December and that pair have to be considered once more.
However, Richard Hobson, trainer of Fugitif, exclusively told Sporting Life’s Get Stuck In programme on Tuesday that there is a ‘strong possibility’ that his stable star will step up in class and run in the rearranged Clarence House Chase on Saturday instead. If that transpires then it will give this handicap a different look and will also shift the betting market.
Il Ridoto is a solid operator at Cheltenham and seems sure to be in the mix again, but he was again raised in the weights (5lb) for not winning last time and he now figures on a mark which is 10lb higher than his last winning one which came in this race (Fugitif second) 12 months ago. Victtorino is another horse I have a lot of time for, but he is also in at Doncaster on Saturday and, for me, the one who may blow them all out of the water is the Nicky Henderson-trained EXCELLO.
He actually has a similar profile to Victtorino, a French recruit who had a fair bit of experience over fences on those shores, but showed much improved form on his first start in this sphere in Britain when winning at Ascot.
That was a graduation chase which featured just three runners but there was plenty to like about the manner of his victory. It may have been short on numbers, but it was still a well-run race, the eventual runner-up – who is a solid, smart chaser – taking them along at a good tempo and Excello moving past him at the end of the back straight.
From there it was more or less race over and done with, the runner-up never looking like regaining the lead and Excello really finding his stride in the straight. I was impressed by how he moved into a different gear between the final two fences, arguably going a stride too quick approaching the last, but sorting himself out nicely and just kept up to his work on the run-in.
Some of his jumping was a little novicey, but that is understandable on his first try over British fences, and he should have learnt plenty from that outing. If anything, he also edged a bit to his left when jumping, so the switch to a left-handed track should suit well. This will be a more competitive scenario for him, but a likely strong gallop will suit and, with several having other options, this may not end up being the biggest field for a premier handicap.
An opening mark of 146 may not appear to be a gift, but on Timeform ratings, he ran to a high level for a chaser with as limited experience as him at Ascot, while the Timefigure he recorded that day gives his performance extra credence. As such, in a race where the outlook has the potential to change come Saturday, I like the chances of Excello at 7/1 given he arguably has the potential to make up into a graded performer.
Preview posted at 1550 GMT on 23/01/24
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