Andrew Asquith returns with his ante-post column and has three bets at Newmarket and York on Saturday.
Weekend View: Saturday July 12
0.5pts e.w. Dorney Lake in the bet365 Bunbury Cup at 40/1 (General, 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Fox Legacy in the John Smith's Cup at 14/1 (bet365, Betvictor, 12/1 General, 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Raafedd in the bet365 Mile Handicap at 14/1 (bet365, Unibet, 12/1 Sky Bet, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Temperatures are set to soar again as the week progresses so fast ground will likely be the order of the day on ‘Super Saturday’. There are 12 races scheduled to be shown on ITV featuring a lovely mix of pattern races and ultra-competitive handicaps. It’s one of those Saturday’s where you put the tele on, fire up the BBQ, grab a beer, and enjoy!
More Thunder has obvious claims in the bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket given he’s racing from the same mark as when a fast-finishing second, beaten only a head, in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. The step up to seven furlong is sure to suit, too, but backing a horse at around 5/2 for a race of this nature makes little to no appeal.
I’m going to have a small-stakes stab at one at a massive price and the horse in question is the Michael Bell-trained DORNEY LAKE. He was picked up relatively cheaply (18,000 guineas) out of the John & Thady Gosden yard and immediately looked an improved performer following a gelding operation when winning his first two starts for Bell in good-to-firm handicaps at Yarmouth and Doncaster earlier this year.
He has shaped better than the bare result in three starts since, too, not having things go his way, an awkward start putting him on the backfoot at Ascot and slowly-run races at Newbury the last twice not to his liking.
Dorney Lake left the impression he’s still in top form last month, though, failing to settle early but moving into contention like a horse still on a good mark, and just unable to get on terms with the more prominent runners at a meeting where it invariably paid to race close to the pace.
This scenario should suit his run style much better, sure to be run at a stronger pace, and he’s totally unexposed at seven furlongs. Dorney Lake has an entry in a lesser handicap at Newmarket on Friday, but you would imagine connections will want to roll the dice in the Bunbury Cup given the prize money on offer, and odds of 40/1 underestimate his chance.
William Haggas also holds a strong hand in the John Smith’s Cup at York with Arabian Force and Archivist both vying for favouritism. He also has a good record in the race, but so does Andrew Balding, who has won two of the last six renewals, and I still think there is more to come from his FOX LEGACY.
He made an excellent impression when making a winning debut for the yard (first start since being gelded) over nine furlongs at Newmarket in May, and he was well supported when dropped back to a mile in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last time.
Fox Legacy did well to finish sixth on that occasion, faring best of those who raced in the middle group for the first half of the race before merging into the far-side group. He travelled with his usual fluency but perhaps found the drop to a mile against him, unable to pick up in the same fashion as the principals, but staying on strongly to the line. Bopedro, who he had beat fair and square at Newmarket, ran a cracker to finish third and boost his form, and the feeling is Fox Legacy is better judged on his Newmarket success.
He bolted up over a similar trip to this on his second start in a handicap at Salisbury last season, so an extended mile and a quarter shouldn’t be a problem for him, in fact I think it will help his claims, allowing him to travel into the race for longer. A mark of 96 shouldn’t prove beyond him and available at a double-figure price once more, I’m keeping the faith.
Not many firms have priced up the bet365 Mile Handicap at Newmarket, but a few of the big firms have, and there is a horse in here who I want to get on side.
RAAFEDD showed just fairly useful form on his first two starts five months apart, but he shaped like a horse very much in need of the run over seven furlongs on the Rowley Course in April, and showed the clear benefit of that outing when bolting up at Newbury next time.
He wore a first-time tongue strap on that occasion, while he also encountered faster ground for the first time (Timeform described it as firm), and duly proved a different proposition, having the race sewn up in the final two furlongs.
Raafedd readily drew clear from there and was value for much more than the winning margin as his rider eased him down close home, proving much superior to Accenture who has since won well at Windsor and will meet Raafedd on the same terms if they meet again on Saturday.
That rival is probably shorter in the betting because Raafedd finished down the field in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last month, but he had multiple excuses that day, drawn lower than ideal in a race which was dominated by the high numbers, while he also met trouble on more than one occasion.
He was short of room when the pace began to lift, and he ended up making his challenge more towards the centre of the track than ideal. He also got bumped in the final furlong and his jockey wasn’t overly hard on him from there on in.
It is interesting that Raafedd started 11/2 favourite that day, however, connections clearly feeling he’s been allotted a very lenient mark, and he’s well worth another chance to confirm that. He also has an entry at York on Saturday, but jockey bookings seem to point in the direction of Newmarket, and the same owner already has one jocked up in the York race.
The 14/1 available looks too big and, with most firms offering four places, he looks a knocking each-way bet considering the largest field in this race in the last 14 years has been 13 runners.
- Preview posted 1340 BST on 08/07/2025
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