Bay has plenty more to offer
Trials season may be all but over but rather than becoming fixated on one of the winners from Leopardstown, Chester, Lingfield or York, I've emerged with a relatively open mind and over the next few weeks will be doing my best not to rule too many colts from Betfred Derby calculations.
It’s worth recalling only four of the past 10 Epsom heroes won their final prep race – Harzand landing the Ballysax prior to his Derby day in the sun a decade ago, Anthony Van Dyck the Lingfield Derby Trial in 2019, Desert Crown the 2022 Dante and Lambourn the Chester Vase 12 months ago.
The other four Derby winners in that period were either slightly freakish maiden winners, 2000 Guineas also-rans or were runners-up in one of the aforementioned trials, and it's the latter bracket that interests me most this time around, having not been completely blown away by either Benvenuto Cellini or Item, the two market leaders having won the Cheshire Vase and Dante respectively.
The Dante is still seen as the most significant pointer in Britain, with 11 winners of the race having gone on to Derby victory, but the Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes isn’t far behind, nine horses having achieved that particular double.
On top of that, Adayar was second at Lingfield before going one place better in the 12-furlong Classic five years ago and I thought Ralph Beckett’s Bay Of Brilliance shaped encouragingly this time around, coming up just a neck short of beating the very well-regarded Maltese Cross (replay below).
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The William Haggas-trained winner is no bigger than 10/1 for the Derby but he had the benefit of a Newbury comeback run behind him, whereas Bay Of Brilliance was making his first start since his wide-margin novice win under a penalty at... Redcar on October 27. So the fact he's 20/1 and more than twice the price of Maltese Cross with a few bookmakers doesn’t quite add up.
Granted, not many Derby winners will have ever stepped foot in Redcar, but Bay Of Brilliance was clearly different class that day and had previously broken his maiden tag in a 10-furlong event at Goodwood towards the end of September, a race with a smidgeon of Classic heritage having been won by subsequent 50/1 Derby second Khalifa Sat a few years ago.
The market principals at Lingfield evidently did not fire at all; 11/8 jolly Maho Bay was a well-held fourth for Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien’s Isaac Newton (4/1) seemingly wasn't up to the task having been eased in the final furlong and a half. Still, I suspect we saw two very smart colts come to the fore, and nicely clear in the end.
Maltese Cross, a 350,000gns son of Sea The Stars who obviously doesn’t mind knuckling down and fighting for his prize money, looks like potentially becoming a bit of a household name this year but Bay Of Brilliance seems equally straightforward which we know counts for plenty on Derby day.
Drawn in stall one, he coped admirably with the Lingfield contours, settling in fourth before travelling well on the incline and making up a bit of ground on the downhill section of the course. He switched to the inside to avoid weakening front-runner A Taste Of Glory in the straight and quickened when asked the question by Hector Crouch, the lack of a recent outing possibly proving the difference late in the day although he certainly didn’t shirk the battle close home.
Timeform have the pair of them on the same master rating (116p) on the back of that and while the bare form needs improving upon to be competitive in a typical running of the Derby, Beckett has history when it comes to Lingfield into Epsom having prepped most of his better fillies in the Oaks Trial Stakes over the years, including Look Here who was beaten under a length in the build-up race before winning the Oaks a month later.
“Whether he’s good enough, we’ll find out. But that whole gig will suit him really well, he’s a really straightforward individual who enjoys every day. So Epsom is going to hold no fears for him.” Trainer Ralph Beckett on Bay Of Brilliance (Nick Luck Daily Podcast, May 16)
Is revised 12/1 an overreaction?
The other horse I’m desperate not to strike a line through just yet is Pierre Bonnard, who looks your archetypal ‘trained for one day’ Ballydoyle colt, having only really peaked in the autumn of his juvenile campaign.
I find it hard to believe he was anywhere close to full fitness for either the Ballysax or the Derby Trials Stakes at Leopardstown and fully expect the strapping son of Camelot – described as "massive" by his trainer – to revel in the unique challenge that Epsom poses.
Indeed, if there’s one Ballydoyle-trained colt who has the potential to go out and break the resolve of the majority of his rivals courtesy of an aggressive, forward ride then it’s surely going to be Pierre Bonnard. Win, lose or draw here it’s easy to envisage him being the yard’s number one for the Irish Derby around the Curragh, with the St Leger probably already in connections' minds deeper into the year.
He improved around 10lb from first to second start this spring and, being out of a New Approach mare who won up to a mile and a half, looks destined to take another big jump up the ladder stretching out to that trip for the first time next month.
Ryan Moore is highly unlikely to be on board and whether Pierre Bonnard could turn out to be another end-of-season bloomer again this time around remains to be seen, but the current price of 12/1 (General), having been half that on New Year’s Day, may prove to be an overreaction to his defeats when palpably undercooked and merely gearing up for the big day one June 6.
Published at 15:00 BST on 18/05/26
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