The preparation for Cheltenham's November Meeting starts here with Timeform's in-depth guide, featuring all the key facts and figures.
Timeform's Cheltenham course guide
All races at the November Meeting are run on the Old Course.
Left-handed, undulating. Stiff fences that place a premium on sound jumping. The last half mile is uphill, although the lead changes hands on the run-in less frequently than might be expected. Prominent racers often fare well on the chase course, especially in races up to 3m. Jockeys often steer a wide course in the winter months searching for better ground and this can lead to trouble in-running towards the stand rail in the straight.
Leading active jockeys at the November Meeting
Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 10 rides)
- Robbie Power 26.32% (5-19)
- Paddy Brennan 25.93% (7-27)
- Nico de Boinville 22.22% (4-18)
- Harry Skelton 19.23% (5-26)
- Harry Cobden 16.67% (6-36)
Other points to consider
- Paddy Brennan is the most successful jockey at the November Meeting in the last five years with seven winners, yielding a profit of £46.75 to a £1 level stake. His run-to-form percentage of 70.37% also underlines that he rides the track particularly well. Brennan has ridden four winners from 19 rides (21.05% strike rate) at the November Meeting when teaming up with Fergal O’Brien. Those four winners have returned a profit of £34.00 to a £1 level stake, with Red Hot Chilly yielding the biggest dividend when successful at 33/1 in 2018.
- Richard Patrick has ridden three winners from only seven rides at the November Meeting in the last five years, at strike rate of 42.86% and producing a profit of £18.33 to a £1 level stake. His three wins have all been achieved on horses trained by Kerry Lee, including Happy Diva, who gave the jockey the biggest success of his career so far when winning the BetVictor Gold Cup (now Paddy Power Gold Cup) at odds of 14/1 in 2019.
Leading active trainers at the November Meeting
Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 10 runners)
- Harry Fry 27.27% (3-11)
- Colin Tizzard 22.00% (11-50)
- Alan King 20.00% (5-25)
- Henry de Bromhead 20.00% (2-10)
- Philip Hobbs 16.22% (6-37)
Others points to consider
- Colin Tizzard has saddled 11 winners at the November Meeting in the last five years, a tally which is nearly double that of his closest pursuers – Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls and David Pipe (all six). Tizzard has a particularly strong record when saddling novice chasers at the November Meeting with four winners from 11 runners (36.36% strike rate). Thistlecrack in 2016, Finian’s Oscar in 2017 and Eldorado Allen and The Big Breakaway, both in 2020, are the four winners in question, all of whom went on to achieve at least smart form over fences.
- Alan King has been the most profitable trainer to follow at the November Meeting in the last five years. His five winners have returned a profit of £37.25 to a £1 level stake, with Elgin (10/1 in 2017) and Harambe (16/1 in 2019) both helping the cause by winning the Greatwood Hurdle at double-figure odds. King has also won two of the last five renewals of the listed mares’ bumper staged at the meeting, hitting the target with My Khaleesi (14/1 in 2016) and The Glancing Queen (16/1 in 2018).
Running style
It can be difficult to make up ground from off the pace on the Old Course at Cheltenham, particularly in races over fences. The best way of demonstrating this is by comparing the Timeform EPFs (Early Position Figures) of the eight chase winners at last year’s November Meeting. On a scale of 1-5 – 1 for a horse who led and 5 for a horse who was held up – five of the eight winners recorded an EPF of 1 or 2. It probably should have been six, too, but the front-running Gumball fell at the second last when seemingly having the Arkle Trial at his mercy.
Why are patiently ridden horses at such a disadvantage? The set-up of the track for the meetings leading up to the Cheltenham Festival is possibly a factor, with the narrowing of the chase course, ostensibly in order to ensure fresh ground for the Festival, causing a clear shift towards prominent racers holding an inherent edge. A tighter track gives horses who are held up less room to manoeuvre as they pick their way through, whether that be negotiating fallers or horses who are weakening.
There is also a significant track bias in play in races over hurdles on the Old Course. Put simply, taking as wide a route as possible – throughout but especially so in the home straight – has been a hefty advantage at Cheltenham in recent times. What’s as noteworthy for punters, not to mention those sitting on horseback, is the obvious negative to hugging the inside rail, which seems to sap the energy of horses whose riders have chosen to ignore the disadvantage.
Best performances at the November Meeting
Sorted by Timeform performance ratings in the last five years
- Fox Norton (167) – 2016 Shloer Chase WON
- Frodon (166) – 2016 25f handicap chase WON
- Fox Norton (164) – 2017 Shloer Chase WON
- Politologue (164) – 2019 Shloer Chase Second
- Defi du Seuil (163) – 2019 Shloer Chase WON
The Shloer Chase has been won by a whole host of top-class chasers in recent seasons, including Fox Norton, who registered back-to-back victories in 2016 and 2017. On the first occasion he posted the best performance by any horse at the November Meeting in the last five years, earning a Timeform rating of 167 for his dominant nine-length defeat of Simply Ned.
Defi du Seuil (163) and Politologue (164) also put up notable efforts when filling the first two places in the 2019 renewal, a race in which Politologue conceded 3 lb to the winner and, therefore, emerged as marginally the best horse at the weights.
Elsewhere at the meeting, Frodon (166) produced an impressive weight-carrying performance when winning the three-mile handicap chase 12 months ago, conceding 17 lb or more to his rivals with a typically game display from the front.
Over hurdles, The New One (153) produced a big performance when fourth in the Greatwood in 2017, showing smart form to be beaten less than six lengths from a BHA mark of 163. Similar comments apply to Old Guard (150) and Verdana Blue (150), who finished third and fourth, respectively, when carrying big weights in the 2018 renewal.
Paddy Power Gold Cup trends
Since 2000 unless specified otherwise
- Age – 9/21 winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup have been aged seven, which is more than double the tally of any other age group. Three of the last five winners have been aged nine, but no horse aged above nine has won the race since Clear Cut back in 1975.
- BHA mark – 18/21 winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup were successful from a BHA mark of 150 or less. 10/21 winners were rated between 150 and 143 and 8/21 winners were rated 139 or less. Al Ferof (159 in 2012) is the highest-rated winner and Splash of Ginge (134 in 2017) is the lowest-rated winner.
- Horses for courses – 14/21 winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup had previously won over fences at Cheltenham. Caid du Berlais (2014) and Baron Alco (2018) are two recent winners who didn’t meet that criteria, but both horses had previously finished placed in races at the Cheltenham Festival, more than proving their suitability for the test.
- SP – 12/21 winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup were sent off at single-figure odds. Shooting Light (9/4 in 2001) is the shortest-priced winner and Splash of Ginge (25/1 in 2017) is the longest-priced winner. The average SP of the winner is 9.8/1.
- Trainers to follow – 8/21 winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup have been trained by either Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 and 2017), Jonjo O’Neill (2006, 2013 and 2016) or Paul Nicholls (2012 and 2014). Edward O’Grady (2009) is the only Irish-based trainer to win the race since 1980.
Greatwood Hurdle trends
Since 2000 unless specified otherwise
- Age – 11/21 winners of the Greatwood Hurdle have been aged five, which is nearly three times the tally of any other age group. By contrast, no horse aged eight or above has won the race since Rooster Booster in 2002.
- BHA mark – 16/21 winners of the Greatwood Hurdle were successful from a BHA mark of 145 or less. 7/21 winners were rated between 145 and 140 and 9/21 winners were rated 137 or less. Rooster Booster (155 in 2002) is the highest-rated winner and Numide (124 in 2008) is the lowest-rated winner.
- Recent form – 10/21 winners of the Greatwood Hurdle were reappearing after a significant absence (at least 150 days). 5/21 winners of the Greatwood Hurdle arrived on the back of a recent success (up to 28 days before).
- SP – 13/21 winners of the Greatwood Hurdle were sent off at single-figure odds. Detroit City (6/5 in 2006) is the shortest-priced winner and Rigmarole (33/1 in 2003) is the longest-priced winner. The average SP of the winner is 9.4/1.
- Trainers to follow – 9/21 winners of the Greatwood Hurdle have been trained by either Philip Hobbs (2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014), Paul Nicholls (2003, 2011 and 2015) or Alan King (2017 and 2019). Emmet Mullins (2020) is the only Irish-based trainer to win the race since 2007.