Adam Houghton reveals another key stat to keep in mind for the Cheltenham Festival.
KEY STAT
17/22 – the number of Cheltenham Gold Cup winners this century who had won their previous start
In truth, the stat above is just one of several we’ll be discussing in this article with regards the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, all part of a deep dive into chasing’s blue riband to give us an idea of what you need to look for in a potential winner.
After all, we need all the help we can get this year in what is shaping up to be a wide-open renewal, with no standout contender either on form or in the ante-post betting. When you also consider that last year's one-two, Minella Indo and A Plus Tard, will both return to Cheltenham on the back of a defeat, then it all adds up to a race full of intrigue.
More on that pair shortly, but first the obvious reasons why it’s generally worth focusing on horses who won their most recent start before running in the Gold Cup.
Put simply, your typical Gold Cup winner is a young horse heading to the Festival in the form of their life, promising to have an even bigger effort in the locker when the situation demands it, too. A last-time-out defeat, on the other hand, might point to a horse who has stopped progressing, or they might even be in decline in the case of some older horses.
In any Gold Cup field, you will usually find a few familiar names who have been banging heads in the top staying chases on either side of the Irish Sea for at least a couple of seasons. However, recent history would suggest that this category of horse is very much one to avoid in the Gold Cup.
Timeform’s David Johnson made this very point earlier in the week when providing his advice for betting at the Cheltenham Festival, pinpointing the improvers as the horses to follow not just in the Gold Cup but at the meeting in general.
“Most races at Cheltenham are won by improving horses with their best days ahead of them, and they are the ones you should concentrate on backing,” Johnson explained.
"There will be lots of horses that will look well treated on their form from a year or more ago, but a very small number come back to that level, despite the convincing case made for it at the preview night.
“I look back with shame at backing If The Cap Fits each-way in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle, no matter how convincing the case for him to place on his old form was.
“Side with a Minella Indo or Al Boum Photo on last year’s form if you wish, but the Gold Cup has a habit of going to a young chaser having his first crack at the race and Protektorat fits the bill for me."
Stats don't favour Photo finish
Al Boum Photo is probably the horse who has the most to overcome in this year’s Gold Cup, at least statistically. Yes, he heads to Cheltenham on the back of a victory – in the New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore for the fourth year in succession – but it would have been a massive surprise if he hadn’t come out on top in that Grade Three given that he returned an SP of 6/1-on.
Al Boum Photo went from Tramore to win the Gold Cup on his next start in both 2019 and 2020, but he could finish only third (beaten five and a half lengths) behind Minella Indo and A Plus Tard following the same preparation last year.
As such, Al Boum Photo is now tasked with trying to become only the second horse in the history of the Gold Cup after Kauto Star to regain his crown, and it follows that he would become the first horse to ever win three or more editions of the Gold Cup in non-consecutive years.
Al Boum Photo will also be a 10-year-old when he makes his fourth successive appearance in the Gold Cup, an age group with a poor recent record in the race. For context, the last 10-year-old to win the Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998, while Kauto Star was beaten in the race at that age when sent off the 11/8-on favourite in 2010.
Back to our main stat and it’s fair to say that there are far more conventional routes to Gold Cup glory than via a trip to Tramore. For example, 6/22 winners of the Gold Cup this century made their final appearance before the race in the King George VI Chase, four of which were successful at Kempton and two of which were beaten.
The horses who bounced back from defeat at Kempton to win at Cheltenham next-time-out were Best Mate, who filled the runner-up spot in the King George before winning his first Gold Cup in the 2001/02 season, and Imperial Commander, who finished fifth in the King George before winning the Gold Cup in the 2009/10 season.
Best Mate went one better in the King George before going on to defend his Gold Cup crown at the Festival in the 2002/03 season, while Kicking King in 2004/05, Kauto Star in 2008/09 and Long Run in 2010/11 are the other horses this century to have won the King George and Gold Cup in the same season with no runs in between.
Incidentally, Kauto Star also completed the King George/Gold Cup double in the 2006/07 season, but the difference then was that he registered another victory in between in the race we know today as the Denman Chase at Newbury, the other key stepping stone to the Gold Cup in Britain.
In total, 4/22 winners of the Gold Cup this century made their final appearance before the race in the Denman Chase, all of which were successful at Newbury.
Denman beat stablemate Kauto Star into second in the 2008 Gold Cup after winning at Newbury on his previous start, while Coneygree and Native River also completed the Denman Chase/Gold Cup double in 2015 and 2018, respectively.
Importance of Irish trials
Meanwhile, the key trials in Ireland are traditionally the races we know today as the Savills Chase and the Irish Gold Cup, both Grade One contests run at Leopardstown.
3/22 winners of the Gold Cup this century made their final appearance before the race in the Savills Chase, two of which were successful and one of which was beaten. The horse who met with defeat at Leopardstown but turned it around at Cheltenham was War of Attrition in the 2005/06 season.
The King George had given Best Mate a good platform to build from before winning the Gold Cup in the 2001/02 and 2002/03 seasons, but he bypassed Kempton and ran at Leopardstown before heading back to Cheltenham in 2003/04. Best Mate duly won at Leopardstown and the end result in the Gold Cup was also the same as he registered a historic third triumph in the race.
The only other horse to complete the Savills Chase/Gold Cup double this century is Synchronised in the 2011/12 season. Of course, Best Mate and Synchronised may have warmed up for the Gold Cup in Ireland, but both horses were actually trained in Britain, so it remains the case that no Irish-trained horse has completed the Savills Chase/Gold Cup this century.
As for the Irish Gold Cup, Sizing John is the one horse this century to have won that race before following up on his next start in the Gold Cup in 2017.
In total, 3/22 winners of the Gold Cup this century made their final appearance before the race in the Irish Gold Cup, though it’s interesting that both Lord Windermere and Minella Indo – winners of the Gold Cup in 2014 and 2021, respectively – headed to Cheltenham on the back of comprehensive defeats at Leopardstown.
Lord Windermere, in particular, was beaten over 25 lengths when sixth in the Irish Gold Cup, so it's easy to see why he was sent off at 20/1 when winning the Gold Cup, identifying him as comfortably the longest-priced winner of the race this century.
What is the ideal preparation?
So, as we’ve already discussed with Al Boum Photo, the big question is how have this year’s would-be Gold Cup winners prepared for their date with destiny?
It’s perhaps a sign of the times that neither the King George nor the Denman Chase has thrown up a leading British-trained contender for the 2022 Gold Cup. Indeed, it's hardly a surprise that the big staying chases run in Ireland this season have been the first port of call for Gold Cup clues given that Irish trainers have won five of the last six renewals.
The Denman winner Eldorado Allen is seemingly more likely to run in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham instead, leaving runner-up Royale Pagaille, beaten nearly 50 lengths into sixth in last year’s Gold Cup, to represent the Newbury form. It says plenty about Royale Pagaille’s Gold Cup hopes that he is still a general 16/1 in the ante-post betting, however.
Meanwhile, the home team were well and truly put in their place in the King George by Tornado Flyer, who became the first Irish-trained winner of the Boxing Day highlight since Kicking King came out on top for the second year in a row in 2005.
The Gold Cup has been the target for Tornado Flyer ever since and, still relatively unexposed over staying trips, he shouldn’t be underestimated at Cheltenham as he tries to follow in the footsteps of Best Mate, Kicking King, Kauto Star and Long Run by completing the double.
Home challenge thin on the ground
Protektorat and Chantry House are perhaps the pick of the British-trained contenders for the Gold Cup. They both fit the bill of being young horses who probably haven’t reached their ceiling over fences just yet, and they both head to Cheltenham on the back of wins, though it’s worth pointing out that they were achieved in races with little or no recent history of producing Gold Cup winners.
Chantry House, for example, was last seen running out a workmanlike winner of the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January, a race which hasn’t thrown up a Gold Cup winner since Looks Like Trouble in 2000, while the Many Clouds Chase won by Protektorat at Aintree in December is still a relatively new addition to the calendar having been run for the first time in 2011.
True, Protektorat looked a high-class chaser in winning by 23 lengths at Aintree, but you must question the value of the form with so many of his rivals flopping in a race run on heavy going. As the Timeform report put it, “assessing the exact worth of the obviously progressive winner's performance on ground by now in a sorry state is a task to stretch even disciples of Mensa”.
We don’t need that sort of brain power to recognise that Gordon Elliott – who trained Don Cossack to win the 2016 Gold Cup via a victory in the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles on his previous start – has a strong hand in this year’s Gold Cup with Galvin and Conflated, who head to Cheltenham on the back of wins in the Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup, respectively.
Galvin, in particular, looks to hold very solid claims, a progressive eight-year-old who put himself well and truly in the Gold Cup picture with a hard-fought success in the Savills Chase last time, staying on strongly to get the verdict by a short head from A Plus Tard.
He was full value for a top-class performance and the fact the Gold Cup will be his first start for nearly three months is no issue. After all, he won the National Hunt Chase at last year’s Festival after an even longer absence, showing seemingly endless reserves of stamina which will stand him in good stead again here.
A Plus Tard will be in opposition again at Cheltenham as he attempts to go one place better than when chasing home stablemate Minella Indo in last year’s Gold Cup. Prior to his Leopardstown defeat at the hands of Galvin, A Plus Tard produced a career-best effort to run out a 22-length winner of the Betfair Chase at Haydock.
That form sets the standard in this year’s Gold Cup on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings, but A Plus Tard will have a couple of notable stats to overcome if he is going to win at Cheltenham.
Not only was he beaten on his most recent start, but it’s also worth remembering that Native River is the only Gold Cup winner this century to have been beaten on his first try in the race - he finished third in 2017 before coming out on top in a memorable duel with Might Bite the following year.
Before Native River, Bregawn was the last horse to win the Gold Cup after meeting with defeat on his first attempt, filling the runner-up spot behind stablemate Silver Buck in 1982 before leading home a famous one-two-three-four-five for trainer Michael Dickinson 12 months later.
Reigning champion there to be shot at
As for Minella Indo, he is yet to scale the heights of last year’s Gold Cup win in three starts this season, even if he did take a step back in the right direction when second in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown last time, ultimately passing the post six and a half lengths behind Conflated.
Minella Indo was beaten exactly the same distance when fourth in last year’s Irish Gold Cup, so his connections can at least take some encouragement from the way that he left that effort behind when going on to win at Cheltenham, in the process becoming just the fifth Gold Cup winner this century to have been beaten on their previous start.
Can Minella Indo do it again this year and follow in the footsteps of Best Mate and Al Boum Photo by winning successive renewals of the Gold Cup?
Minella Indo is yet to run a bad race at the Festival, boasting a record of two wins and a second from three starts, and there is certainly plenty of evidence to suggest that he comes good in the spring.
However, there is even more evidence to suggest that backing horses with his profile is not a recipe for punting success in the Gold Cup. After all, the shoe is on the other foot this year as he heads into the race as one of the old guard, a horse who has probably shown all that he has to offer rather than being a potential improver.
Cheltenham Gold Cup winners this century and their previous result
- 2000 – Looks Like Trouble (Winner, Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham)
- 2001 – NO RACE
- 2002 – Best Mate (Second, King George VI Chase at Kempton)
- 2003 – Best Mate (Winner, King George VI Chase at Kempton)
- 2004 – Best Mate (Winner, Savills Chase at Leopardstown)
- 2005 – Kicking King (Winner, King George VI Chase at Kempton)
- 2006 – War of Attrition (Second, Savills Chase at Leopardstown)
- 2007 – Kauto Star (Winner, Denman Chase at Newbury)
- 2008 – Denman (Winner, Denman Chase at Newbury)
- 2009 – Kauto Star (Winner, King George VI Chase at Kempton)
- 2010 – Imperial Commander (Fifth, King George VI Chase at Kempton)
- 2011 – Long Run (Winner, King George VI Chase at Kempton)
- 2012 – Synchronised (Winner, Savills Chase at Leopardstown)
- 2013 – Bobs Worth (Winner, Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury)
- 2014 – Lord Windermere (Sixth, Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown)
- 2015 – Coneygree (Winner, Denman Chase at Newbury)
- 2016 – Don Cossack (Winner, Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles)
- 2017 – Sizing John (Winner, Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown)
- 2018 – Native River (Winner, Denman Chase at Newbury)
- 2019 – Al Boum Photo (Winner, New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore)
- 2020 – Al Boum Photo (Winner, New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore)
- 2021 – Minella Indo (Fourth, Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown)
Also in this series
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.