Laura Joy takes a look at the pedigrees of the four horses who top the Cazoo Oaks market and assesses their chances of landing the Classic.
Just about the only time Emily Upjohn (Sea The Stars x Hidden Brief by Barathea) has fluffed her lines was at Tattersalls where she sold as a yearling.
We can only hope for her breeder’s sake they retain some of her family so they can deservedly capitalize on this filly’s talent. 60,000gns for a Sea The Stars filly will have been disappointing. Harzand, Sea The Stars’ only Derby winner to date, features in Emily Upjohn’s immediate pedigree and there’s no doubt she is exactly what they were hoping for when sending Hidden Brief to the Derby winner.
Having produced just two ordinary winners from visits to proven stallions, she had been disappointing until this filly came along. We know Sea The Stars’ progeny, like himself, so often find improvement when stepping up to middle distances. Keeping a lid on this big striding filly will be the biggest challenge as there is no doubting her pedigree and performances to date make her a worthy favourite.
Whilst the Gosdens may lack a star Derby prospect, they are more than accounting for it in the Cazoo Oaks field. Stablemate of Emily Upjohn, Nashwa (Frankel x Princess Loulou by Pivotal) made it a perfect two wins from two starts this year in Newbury's Listed trial last weekend. Bred on the same cross as Cracksman and thus an extension of the lucrative Galileo x Pivotal mare cross. Pivotal was a sprinter but has proven his progeny can excel over a range of trips from the minimum to the maximum.
However, there is a lot of speed in her family. There are two Middle Park winners (Awzaan and Bassenthwaite) in her immediate family among a plethora of sprinters. Cracksman was also close to unbeatable given soft conditions underfoot. Will Nashwa be the same? Sons and daughters of Pivotal so often have the ability to negotiate soft conditions better than their rivals. Princess Loulou made ten of her 14 starts on ground with soft in the description, only once did she disappoint. Newly crowned champion sire Frankel may well have his say when Nashwa calls on her stamina reserves, but he'll need to if she's going to trouble her stablemate.
Tuesday (Galileo x Lillie Langtry by Danehill Dancer) warmed up for the Oaks in the first fillies Classic of the season, a route often considered good practice in the colt's equivalent for the Derby. On just her third start, she battled on resolutely to finish third to Cachet, form which received a boost in the Pouliches at Longchamp. Never mind form though, on pedigree alone you could hand the race to this filly. By the King of Epsom Galileo, out of multiple Group 1 winning miler Lillie Langtry, Tuesday will aim to become her illustrious dam's third Classic winner and second at Epsom after her full sister Minding in 2016.
With The Moonlight (Frankel x Sand Vixen by Dubawi) will be hoping to emulate Taghrooda and Talent in following up her Pretty Polly Stakes success with victory in the Epsom Oaks. Another daughter of Frankel, With The Moonlight’s dam was the first daughter of Dubawi to breed a Group 1 winner by Frankel and the same connections have reaped the rewards in going back to that well. Adayar, the first colt to do the Epsom Derby-King George double since Galileo, is bred on the same cross for the same connections.
It wasn’t until Godolphin introduced Frankel to With The Moonlight’s family that things moved up a gear. Just about the only question mark will be her stamina. Her full brother Dream Castle won the Group 1 Jebel Hatta over a mile and one furlong and was never tried beyond a mile and a quarter. This filly has every right to stay the Oaks trip but on the exploits of her siblings, she might be vulnerable to a more stoutly bred individual with proven stamina in their blood.
The four beautifully bred fillies heading the market are each by sires who are either sons or grandsons of Urban Sea, a matriarch whose influence on the breed will surely remain unrivalled in most of our lifetimes.
To add intrigue, they are all out of mares by sires who excelled at a mile or less and we know the one thing required at Epsom is stamina. Both Tuesday and With The Moonlight are bred in the purple and out of proven Group 1-producing mares.
Nashwa represents a passionate owner breeder operation who had the inspired vision to send a talented mare from a good family to a champion with the hope of getting a star. On Emily Upjohn’s shoulders rests the dream that lures us all into racing and keeps us hooked throughout all the disappointments. You don’t have to spend the cost of a house to own a top-class racehorse, and if Emily Upjohn gets home in front, we’ll all keep dreaming a little longer that one day, it might be our turn.