Boyle Sports Lockinge preview: David Cleary overview

Horse Racing

Fri May 15, 2026 · 4h ago

Timeform's David Cleary with his overview of Saturday's BOYLE Sports Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.

History of the Lockinge

The first Group One in Britain for older horses this campaign, often featuring those that will take on the best of the Classic generation in the top mile races from the Sussex Stakes onwards. Frankel and Baaeed are the most notable names on the roll of honour this century, though there is nothing obviously approaching their calibre in the field this time round.

Best winning performances on Timeform ratings since 2001:

144 Frankel
136 Hawk Wing
132 Baaeed
132 Keltos
131 Farhh
130 Rakti

By contrast, last year's winner Lead Artist needed to run to a figure of just 119 to prevail by a neck from the favourite Dancing Gemini. Only the filly Red Evie has achieved a lower rating in victory this century. This year's field contains six that have already achieved a rating in excess of 119, so if nothing else this looks a stronger renewal.

Seven of the last nine winners had had a run prior to the race, though only one of them (Palace Pier in 2021) actually won first time out. The pair making their reappearance were Baaeed in 2022, who started at 9/4-on, and the 2024 winner Audience, at 22/1 the only horse to score at double-figure odds this century. Audience is also one of just two to win the Lockinge since 2016 that was aged older than four.

Frankel hits a big number in the Lockinge

Tactics

There are a few that race handily, but there is no regular front-runner among the entries for the Lockinge. Mississippi River has the look of a pacemaker, though he's just tracked the leaders in two runs when sent off at Leopardstown this spring. Opera Ballo was ridden from the front when winning the Mile at Sandown last month, Buick seen to good effect, but he hasn't been declared, which further reduces the likelihood of a well-run race.

Among those that might be disadvantaged by no more than a medium gallop are More Thunder, whose wins last summer all came in well-run races. The QEII winner Cicero's Gift is another that would benefit from a well-run race.

It's also worth bearing in mind that although the stalls are in the centre, there is a tendency for the runners to migrate across to the stand rail, which would be a further consideration for the riders of those held up.

Lockinge Stakes pace map

Trip/Ground/Draw

Unless there is significantly more rain than forecast, the Lockinge seems likely to be run on Good going, tending towards the Good to Firm side. Such conditions suggest little advantage to any particular runner. Likewise the draw doesn't seem likely to come into play.

More Thunder raced at six and seven furlongs last year, but he'd been campaigned at around a mile and a quarter when with Sir Michael Stoute in his younger days and the way he finishes his races over shorter suggests an extra furlong will present little problem. By contrast, Damysus is going down in trip, but it shouldn't inconvenience him.

Form

The Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown has regularly been a key trial, so far as the Lockinge is concerned, though a defeat in that race is not necessarily a drawback. The 2016 winner Belardo and Lead Artist, last year, both flopped in the Mile before bouncing back at Newbury.

In this year's running Opera Ballo got the better of Zeus Olympios, who had beaten him in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket last autumn. Zeus Olympios will have to wait for a third clash, with Opera Ballo not declared. Two others from Sandown take their chance again, Cicero's Gift (fourth) and Dancing Gemini (last of six), the latter a beaten favourite in the Lockinge last year.

The Mile looked something of a prep race for the season ahead for Zeus Olympios, who was spared a hard race once it was obvious he wouldn't get to Opera Ballo. He is likely to be a fair bit sharper with the run behind him.

Opera Ballo's stable relies on Notable Speech, who was only fourth in the 2025 Lockinge, when he shaped encouragingly until lack of an outing told. He's had a start already this time round, which could draw a better performance than 12 months ago. Were he to win the Lockinge, Notable Speech would be picking up his fifth success at the highest level.

Notable Speech's most recent victory came in the Breeders' Cup Mile, in which he beat Formidable Man by a length-and-a-half, with The Lion In Winter third and Sahlan fifth. The race didn't really suit Sahlan, who also found himself short of room in the straight. On his previous start Sahlan had narrowly beaten The Lion In Winter in the Moulin at Longchamp.

In the spring of last year, Damysus was placed in the Sandown Classic Trial and Dante before finishing down the field in the Derby. He dropped back to nine furlongs later in the campaign and completed a hat-trick on his return in landing the Earl of Sefton. Aside from his run in the Derby, Damysus has a most progressive profile.

More Thunder did nothing but improve in his first season with William Haggas, until a below-par effort in the Foret on his final start, a run that was excusable for a number of reasons. Jonquil, by contrast, lost his way for a while, but he was right back on song in the Paradise Stakes at Ascot last month, and is another who could make further strides this summer. Both this pair have yet to prove themselves at Group One level.

Jonquil runs away with the Greenham

Paddock

There probably aren't that many angles with the paddock in this particular contest. Jonquil was on his toes beforehand at Ascot on his return, but it clearly didn't impact his performance.

In terms of physique, The Lion In Winter would be the pick. He's a good-looking colt, well made with lots of quality. Damysus is a strong sort and just the type to progress again as he gets older. By contrast, Zeus Olympios is a slighter model, though athletic.

Exciting prospect Zeus Olympios wins at Newmarket

The Case for the Contenders

Jonquil: wasn't up to the task in two Grade 1s in the States last autumn, but could be more competitive at home on the back of a successful, improved return.

More Thunder: form at a lower level doesn't leave him with much to find, perhaps the main concern the potential lack of pace.

Notable Speech: a bona fide Group 1 performer, likely to be sharper than he was in this last year.

Sahlan: lacks a run this year; Moulin form probably not quite good enough, but some potential to improve again.

The Lion In Winter: placed in Moulin, QEII and BC Mile last season; confidence-boosting win at a lower level on return.

Zeus Olympios: most progressive in his first season at three, sure to be sharper than he was at Sandown.

Timeform Analyst Verdict

Zeus Olympios²²

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: C Lee| T: K R Burke| OR: 120| D

In a cracking renewal ZEUS OLYMPIOS is taken to resume his progression with an outing under his belt and get the better of fellow highly promising 4-y-o Damysus, an impressive winner of the Earl of Sefton on his Newmarket reappearance.

Notable Speech has shown his best recent form outside of Britain but will be a threat to all if on his game. A defeat in the Foret last autumn shouldn't be taken to suggest More Thunder's progress has come to an end and he also merits plenty of respect.

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