Betfred Derby verdict: Timeform reaction to Christmas Day's success and non-runner controversy

“The thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians, or zoologists, but on a piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby. If you base your criteria on anything else, you will get something else, not the thoroughbred.”

The famous Federico Tesio quote seems particularly apt in light of the 2026 Derby. There was no shortage of true middle-distance pedigrees on show but only three of the 14 runners were sired by an Epsom Derby winner, all of them out of mares by another Epsom Derby winner, and two of them finished first and second. Every drop of rain that fell on Epsom – and there was plenty of it through the afternoon – rendered the Derby even more of a stamina test.

Indeed, this was the first time this century that it was run on ground the times suggested was soft, and those Derby-laden pedigrees shone through.

With that in mind, it would seem a very fair assessment that Coolmore would hold all the aces, but while the winner is trained by Aidan O’Brien and owned by the Coolmore partners, he was actually purchased as a yearling, in common with last weekend’s French Derby winner Constitution River, as well as last year’s winner of that, Camille Pissarro.

Ten of the 14 who took part in today’s race had gone through a sales ring at least once in their lives, and while the first two both made significant sums as yearlings, they weren’t astronomical prices, certainly nowhere near the top of Tattersalls Book 1, and in fact this year’s result is a fine example that it’s still very possible to buy horses that run really well in the Derby at prices within reach for a large portion of those who own racehorses.

The third, James J Braddock, was 40,000 gns as a yearling having cost half that as a foal, the fourth, Bay of Brilliance, had sold for five figures as a foal, and the fifth, Alderman, cost just 42,000 guineas as a foal.

While Rebel Rocker, who collected £50,000 for finishing sixth, is out of his owner-breeder’s sole broodmare purchased for £14,000 out of a claimer and bred from a £4,000 stud fee to Cityscape. Showing that it’s possible to buy and breed live players in the race at prices that don’t cost the earth should feature as part of the ongoing efforts to reinvigorate the Derby. Having as wide a range of owners and trainers with runners in the race as possible can only be a good thing.

For what it’s worth, Christmas Day’s provisional Timeform rating of 123p – on a par with Wings of Eagles, Anthony Van Dyck and Serpentine among his trainer’s winners in the past decade – is just below that given to Friday's Oaks winner Thundering On, which last happened in 2017 when Enable’s figure outstripped that given to Wings of Eagles (Love and Serpentine were initially handed the same figure in 2020 before Serpentine’s figure was reassessed 2 lb lower).

'Unclear and subjective rule'

It’s hard to write a takeaway piece on the Derby this year without reference to the decision to declare favourite Benvenuto Cellini a non runner.

There are clearly similarities between this instance and that of Harry Angel in the 2018 Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot, but in that case the horse actually injured himself quite badly after kicking out in the stalls and getting his leg stuck on the running board, which doesn’t seem to be the case here.

Yes, it wasn’t ideal for the horse’s chance that one of his legs was off the ground when the stalls opened, but we would argue that there were dozens of horses who had their chance compromised at the start at least as much and, in plenty of cases, significantly more so due to no fault of their own at this year’s Cheltenham Festival.

It does seem like the BHA has created a rod for its own back with this unclear and subjective rule.

'A cautious approach seems in order'

Earlier on the card the Coronation Cup looked a hot race on paper, Timeform’s highest-rated middle-distance horse in training Calandagan bidding to avenge last year’s defeat at the hands of Jan Brueghel, with the classy Illinois and last year’s Derby winner Lambourn reduced to the role of domestiques, but it was soon apparent that things weren’t going to script for the O’Brien team like last year.

Jan Brueghel just never looked comfortable this time and soon found himself behind even Calandagan who is typically settled in rear. Calandagan himself surrendered tamely when the going got tough, unable to cope with conditions and very much looked after on what was the beginning of his European campaign, and Jan Brueghel merely plodding on for a distant second to Bay City Roller.

The winner has developed into a very smart horse on good to firm but he’s particularly effective on soft ground and the rest of his campaign will likely be centred on following the rain around Europe. The form is very hard to weigh up and a cautious approach seems in order.

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