Value Bet tips: Friday, November 12
1pt win Howdyalikemenow in 4.00 Cheltenham at 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)
Nicholls improver hard to oppose
Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton look pretty well set to dominate the thick end of the November Meeting at Cheltenham and, despite best efforts, I’ve struggled to nail down a bet against the former's Skatman in the opening contest.
On paper the Markel Insurance Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle should be a seriously competitive affair, but we’ve seen some really impressive, well-backed winners of this in recent years – I’m looking at you Duc De Beauchene, Melrose Boy and Unowhatimeanharry – and Skatman looks from a similar mould.
The recent Newton Abbot novice winner was already due to go up 3lb, third home that day Opening Bid having won at Warwick after Skatman had been allotted an initial mark of 122, but with Newton Abbot runner-up Yggdrasil also doing the business at Bangor on Wednesday we’re clearly looking at a very well-treated animal who could have loads up his sleeve from this sort of perch.
He was seemingly only just getting going heading to the last hurdle over two miles and a furlong last month, and we know he wants a bit further anyway having won his maiden over two and a half at Musselburgh in the spring.
It was good ground in Scotland that day so lively enough conditions aren’t much of a concern for Skatman either and with a nod of respect to Fontana Ellissi, who looks to have realistic place claims on ground he’ll like, and the totally unexposed Enemenemynemo, I’ll move on.
Trust in Silver to land Prestbury Park gold
As for the rest of the card, betting opportunities are unfortunately quite thin on the ground.
The Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase has produced the odd upset over the years but nothing looks wildly out of line with market expectations and I’ve argued the case for Stolen Silver here – in short, he could still prove ahead of his revised mark if repeating the comeback run.
If he improves for it, which is the big question mark against Sam Thomas’s new recruit, then he’ll take plenty of beating under another aggressive ride from the front.
Skelton's big hope My Drogo faces just the one rival in Gin On Lime in the SSS Super Alloys Novices’ Chase and there will be some out there willing to side with Rachael Blackmore over Harry Skelton in what could be a tactical little match.
The Irish horse is fit too but the Grade One winner gets 1lb from his inferior rival and a relatively clear round should obviously be enough all being well.
Focus on finale for best value option
Neither the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase nor the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle contain much in the way of must-bet material so I’ll focus on the Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle which takes place after the ITV cameras have cleared off.
It looks a wide-open betting heat at the time of writing but I’m surprised Perth maiden winner City Derby tops the market as I’d just about have HOWDYALIKEMENOW as the horse to beat.
He ran five times in Ireland for Declan Queally, hinting at ability on a couple of occasions when running behind the likes of Echoes In Rain and Gaillard Du Mesnil, but those handful of appearances all came in testing conditions and he’s loved racing on better ground since moving to Evan Williams this season.
Heavily-backed and ridden positively from the outset, Howdyalikemenow battered the opposition in a Stratford novice hurdle in October 4 and the form of that race has worked out well for the grade, runner-up Jay Jay Reilly beating odds-on favourite Midnight Legacy at Kempton this Monday and third Just The Man winning a Ludlow handicap really comfortably from a mark of 114.
Howdyalikemenow has since made relatively hard work of justifying 2/7 favouritism at Fakenham but he won there in spite of the really sharp track and was also giving more than a stone in weight to Olly Murphy’s filly Auditoria, who gave backers a bit of a fright before the jolly ultimately asserted to win pretty well.
There were 33 lengths back to the third so I’m inclined to take a positive view of that effort as well and, with conditions looking just about ideal for him on this more undulating course, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t seriously competitive from a mark of 122 on handicap debut.
With an ‘extreme’ pace forecast on the Timeform Race Pass, this looks an ideal test for Howdyalikemenow, who is likely to stay further in time, and the 11/1 (10/1 General) available with a couple of firms looks to underestimate his chance.
Published at 1300 GMT on 11/11/21
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing columnists
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.