Ben Linfoot has a keen eye on the weather forecast ahead of a trip to Paris and he's wondering if a few surprise names might turn up at Longchamp.
We saw some fantastic action at Newmarket on Saturday.
Bow Echo laid down his marker for next year’s 2000 Guineas with a smooth victory in the Royal Lodge. True Love looks every inch Aidan O’Brien’s latest Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf winner after she got back on track in style in the Cheveley Park. And then Wise Approach landed a Middle Park despite adversity with an astonishing last to first burst after stumbling out of the gates.
That was just the two-year-olds.
In the bet365 Cambridgeshire owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum won his second successive renewal of the race, the four-year-old Boiling Point picking up the baton from Liberty Lane with a gutsy success from the front end under Clifford Lee.
It capped off a brilliant meeting for the owner, who earlier in the week saw his Zeus Olympios sink Opera Ballo in a classy edition of the Group 2 Joel Stakes and he could be a real force at the top level in 2026 for Karl Burke.
With George Boughey’s aforementioned Bow Echo heading his two-year-olds he has got a formidable team and thinking about his unbelievable squad of equine stars it struck me he’s won races with all of his big names this season apart from one – Rosallion.
What a frustrating season Richard Hannon’s horse has endured.
He might’ve needed his run in the Lockinge at Newbury in May but it was a performance that promised a Group 1 win at four. But then there was a nose defeat in the Queen Anne. That scarcely believable neck defeat to 150/1 Qirat in the Sussex. A drop to seven furlongs at York for the inaugural Group 1 Sky Bet City Of York didn’t work the oracle. In the Prix du Moulin he lost out by a short head.
A top-level win at four just hasn’t happened for him – yet. His big chance looks to be in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar where his preferred fast ground is all but guaranteed, but I wonder if supplementing him for the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp next Sunday might be on the agenda?
He obviously likes the track after his Lagardere win and his Moulin second, while it looks warm and dry in Paris all week so he looks likely to get his ground, which probably won’t be the case at Ascot for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day.
Longchamp’s seven furlongs will likely suit him better than York’s did, too, so with time running out to get a Group 1 win on the board at four it wouldn’t be a surprise if Sheikh Obaid raided his considerable biscuit tin for the supplementary fee.
Arc movers with weather set fair?
A dry spell in Paris is the last thing Andrew Balding and David O’Meara needed ahead of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and there has to be a good chance both Kalpana and Estrange are rerouted from the Bois de Boulogne to the Ascot heath for the British Champions Fillies’ & Mares.
Ground on the quicker side could be a major positive for the Japanese team, though, with particularly Croix Du Nord and Byzantine Dream likely to appreciate faster going, so it won’t be a surprise to see their prices tighten further towards the top of the market in the coming days.
If there’s a horse that could shorten even more significantly it’s Giavellotto should Marco Botti confirm that he’s an intended runner in Paris next weekend.
Generally 33/1 and 40s in a place, the son of Mastercraftsman has Group 1 1m4f form that puts him right in the mix – notably his Hong Kong Vase win – and while Botti has gone on record as saying he wouldn’t want to harm his chances of repeat success at Sha Tin by leaving his race behind in Paris, the weather forecast might just see him chance his arm.
Either way, expect plenty of market fluctuations in the Arc betting in the coming days as punters latch onto horses that might well benefit for such a benign forecast.
Dawson deserves a change of luck
For three consecutive Saturdays jockey Ray Dawson has just come up short in the day’s feature race without doing anything wrong and he’ll be hoping for a change of fortune in the near future.
Three weeks ago he got beaten a neck in the St Leger aboard Rahiebb as Scandinavia thwarted his late challenge. Last week he won the near-side group in the Ayr Gold Cup by three lengths on Jubilee Walk only for the far side to hold sway by two necks.
And then on Saturday Erzindjan won ‘his race’ on the stands’ side in the Cambridgeshire by six lengths as Boiling Point and co edged proceedings in the other group.
You’d have thought the ball would’ve bounced his way on at least one of those occasions, but a big Saturday race will likely be coming his way soon judging by the way Roger Varian’s horses are running.
Indeed, Lady Of Spain could go for the Group 1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket next Saturday after defying an absence of 255 days on her return at Sandown in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes, on her turf debut no less, under Dawson last month.
With him still hunting his first Group 1 as a jockey she would be a landmark success, but whether she is the one or not Dawson deserves a big one to fall his way in a Saturday feature somewhere soon after the luck he has had the last few weeks.
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