Our form expert had a 14/1 winner in his last Verdict column and he has three selections for day one of the Randox Grand National Festival at Aintree on Thursday.
The Verdict: Thursday April 3
1pt win Murcia in 2.20 Aintree at 9/1 (888sport, 17/2 bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Gaelic Warrior in 2.55 Aintree at 8/1 (888sport, 15/2 General)
1pt e.w. Dr T J Eckleburg in 4.40 Aintree at 22/1 (Ladbrokes, 1/5 1,2,3,4, 20/1 General)
Row in on Warrior in the Bowl
Cheltenham’s loss is Liverpool’s gain with Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth somewhat surprisingly clashing in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle on day one of the Randox Grand National Festival on Thursday.
The very fact Nicky Henderson runs Constitution Hill here 23 days after his Champion Hurdle fall tells us he’s come out of that experience well but the same questions remain – is he as good as he was, and does he need to be?
I do think attempting to concede 7lb to a fit and firing Lossiemouth over 2m4f will answer both of those once and for all, providing both big guns stay on their feet, but I couldn’t back him at odds-on for this assignment after what he’s done this year.
Perhaps Rich Ricci and Willie Mullins’ mare can reverse the Christmas Hurdle form under these conditions and the pair may already be celebrating after GAELIC WARRIOR contests the Grade 1 Brooklands Golden Miller Chronograph Bowl Chase at 2.55.
This horse won’t be for everyone as he’s become an in-and-out character who is tough to predict, while stable jockey Paul Townend is on Embassy Gardens.
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However, the jockey bookings don’t bother me. Patrick Mullins has a good record on this horse and for the Riccis in general, while it should be remembered that Gaelic Warrior is only seven and on his peak form he's the best horse in this race.
Added to that, he’s been running over an inadequate trip ever since he won a heavy ground Arkle and while he was one of the favourites for the King George at the start of the season, this is his first go over three miles over fences.
I think it’s just what he needs as his best run over hurdles came over three miles at the Punchestown Festival in the spring of 2023, when he couldn’t have been any more impressive, travelling away strongly before cruising 10 lengths clear.
That ability to travel gives him a right chance here and I think he’s a better horse than Spillane’s Tower, Ahoy Senor and Stage Star.
Grey Dawning is the rightful favourite on his three-mile form this season and is the one to beat, but he is 0/3 at Aintree and if there’s one in there with the natural ability to get the better of him I’d say it’s Gaelic Warrior.
The Verdict: Back GAELIC WARRIOR in the 2.55 Aintree
Murcia can thrive in Anniversary
As always, it could be a good day for Mullins and I want to back his filly MURCIA again in the Grade 1 Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle at 2.20.
She didn’t quite come up to scratch in the Fred Winter but she ran better than a finishing position of eighth suggests, as she was travelling as well as anything bar the winner two from home and she lost a few positions on the run for the line.
The weight told in handicap company but the promise was there and she could be a different proposition now she’s a filly receiving the sex allowance in a Grade 1.
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Indeed, Mullins won this race with Apple’s Jade and Zenta who both took advantage of the 7lb allowance and it all means Murcia gets a 13lb pull at the weights with Puturhandstogether who beat her almost nine lengths at Cheltenham.
That gives her a chance of reversing the form and I do think a strong gallop over 2m1f at Aintree will play to her strengths with Paul Townend taking over in the saddle.
The Verdict: Back MURCIA in the 2.20 Aintree
Call the Dr in Red Rum
Finally, the Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase will likely be run at a strong gallop and if things go to plan I can see Evan Williams’ DR T J ECKLEBURG travelling into contention nicely.
He has racked up the experience for a seven-year-old and he’s benefitting from that education now, his most recent win at Chepstow a career-best effort on his 19th start over fences.
They went quick that day in the conditions, really quick, Timeform recording a finishing speed of 97.7%, Dr T J Eckleburg suited perfectly by the scenario given his creepy, come-from-behind style.
He won by a short head with the front two 30 lengths clear of the third, explaining a 5lb rise in the weights to 130 which asks for more from him again. There’s no doubt he’s on the up, though, and he’s a big price around 20s considering this - a race his trainer won three years ago with The Last Day - should be run to suit.
I think the ground is well factored into those odds, as his improvement has come on soft and heavy, but he’s gone well on better ground in the past, indeed the progeny of his sire, Lawman, generally like better conditions and we know Aintree has been well watered in any case. Conditions certainly aren’t putting me off at his odds.
The Verdict: Back DR T J ECKLEBURG in the 4.40 Aintree
Preview posted at 1435 BST on 02/04/25
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