Arc de Triomphe betting reaction following Hurricane Lane, St Mark's Basilica and Tarnawa all in action

The races came thick and fast on Saturday, featuring a breathless one-hour period from 3.45 that got brains whirring and predictions stirring ahead of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp in 22 days’ time.

Timeform’s David Cleary was still referring to the physically impressive Hurricane Lane as a potential Arc ‘second string’ for Godolphin a couple of hours after the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris winner sauntered home to land the Cazoo St Leger by almost three lengths – that remains the case with the bookmakers, but looks a relatively brave stance all things considered.

Consider the fact Charlie Appleby stablemate Adayar has missed his intended prep and a couple of key days of training in the run-up to the big one; that Hurricane Lane lost not one but both front shoes during the Derby – his only defeat in an otherwise faultless seven-race career; and also the admittedly small matter of Adayar being the one that needs supplementing into the Arc, not Hurricane Lane.

Recency bias is dangerous in betting but if you’re not taking a positive view about Hurricane Lane for the Arc after his latest destructive display then it may end up being too late as his antepost price – settling around the 6/1 mark as the late-summer sun faded on Town Moor – can only contract further once he’s officially given the green light by connections.

An hour before William Buick was donning the famous Leger cap in the Doncaster winners’ circle, Tarnawa was putting the finishing touches to her own Arc preparations in a gripping battle for the Irish Champion Stakes.

It was a race that lived up to expectations in spite of the small field, St Mark’s Basilica finishing first past the post and, following a lingering stewards’ enquiry, allowed to claim top spot after appearing to drift quite markedly to his right across the path of the gallant runner-up.

Aidan O’Brien spoke of “all the options” for the winner, but while he too remains in the Arc and was inevitably trimmed in most antepost lists, the likelihood of his participation in the Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 16 – or perhaps a return to a mile for the QEII on the same day à la Minding in 2016 – looks far greater.

Tarnawa did her Arc claims no harm at all at Leopardstown, some onlookers evidently going one step further and concluding she enhanced them.

Dermot Weld’s five-year-old was shaved half a point to a general 9/2, the return to a mile and a half and the same course and distance over which she excelled in last year’s Prix Vermeille sure to play to her strengths.

Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane also have something Adayar does not, namely an international Group One on the CV, and on Saturday’s evidence they’re both fighting fit as they build to an autumn crescendo.

So it’s over to Snowfall, still clear favourite for Arc glory ahead of her supposed penalty-kick in Sunday’s Vermeille, but hotly pursued by three class acts in their own right.

It’s clearly crunch time and there’s no room for error. Nothing but another deeply impressive victory will do if she’s to remain at the top of the pecking order for Paris by the time this hugely informative weekend draws to a close.

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