Timeform's American racing expert Jake Price looks into Rich Strike's Kentucky Derby and if he was lucky to pull off such a seismic shock at Churchill Downs.
Lucky Strike?
Rich Strike’s success in the 148th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May would prove to be one of the biggest shocks of the year. Labelled in some quarters as a ‘fluke’, to others the breakneck pace set the race up perfectly for such a result.
So, did the winner live up to the tag of a Kentucky Derby winner? Would he fail to reproduce such a performance of that magnitude again? Let’s take a closer look.
Prior to the big day, Rich Strike only had a maiden claiming success at Churchill Downs to his name in seven starts. That was on just his second start but in some style, by 17¼ lengths no less, before being claimed out of Joe Sharp’s barn by Eric Reed for just $30,000.
To qualify for the Kentucky Derby, horses must run in a series of prep races and gain qualifying points. Rich Strike was a little way down the list and wouldn’t have made the cut had each horse stood their ground such was his position with a meagre twenty-one points. Once the final runners were declared in time for the post position draw, Reed’s colt was first reserve on the list, needing one horse to be scratched.
That luck came on the Friday before the race when Ethereal Road’s trainer, four-time Derby winner Wayne Lukas, announced he wouldn’t be taking up his position. Rich Strike got his chance, but so too the widest gate and he was lumped with an eventual 81/1 starting price.
The race itself, as previously mentioned, was run at a furious gallop and would prove no hiding place for any of the twenty-strong field. Unsurprisingly, the leaders quickly came back to the pack entering the home stretch.
It was here that favourite Epicenter took over the lead with second-favourite Zandon and Smile Happy in pursuit. The last-named’s effort proved short-lived, whilst Simplification made progress approaching the final furlong.
All the while, a horse with a jockey clad in red and white made stealthy headway towards the inside rail. He’d cut the home turn, saving bundles of ground. He was just edging third, still with a couple of lengths to find on Epicenter, a furlong out. Even inside the final furlong, the backers of the favourite were surely ready to cash in their wagers.
Then it happened.
The red and white jacket took the lead with around fifty yards to run with a final burst of acceleration. Flashing past the line with the number “twenty-one” on his saddle cloth. The reserve. The outsider. A strike of the richest kind for all connections.
Race replays and overhead shots of the final stages would prove just how brave a success this was. He made some headway on the home turn before rider Sonny Leon was forced to take a pull when squeezed for room. The switch to the inside turning into the stretch proved crucial. From a not too similar position Mo Donegal took an extremely wide route and could only manage fifth, with Rich Strike taking a path very similar to the 2009 hero Mine That Bird.
Low rating
The pace breakdown was an easy stick with which to beat him immediately after the race. He was initially allotted a Timeform rating of 119, making him the lowest-rated winner since the race was first covered in 1994. Of course, time would tell whether the detractors would be justified or not.
Rich Strike was rested from running in the Preakness at Pimlico, the second leg of the Triple Crown, with connections instead aimed him at the final leg, the Belmont Stakes. This ultimately ensured he wouldn’t have the chance to follow in the recent hoofprints of Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify.
Epicenter would be sent off a warm order in the Preakness at Pimlico, but again had to settle for second behind Early Voting. That rival had been prepared for this since Mo Donegal narrowly got his measure in the Wood Memorial.
Unfortunately, the Belmont didn’t go to plan for Rich Strike, trailing in sixth behind Mo Donegal who had skipped the Pimlico race. The winner was subsequently found to have picked up an injury and his retirement to stud was announced in September.
The Belmont runner-up, Nest, completing a 1-2 for Todd Pletcher, would go on to prove the best filly of the Classic generation as she went on to wrap up a very impressive hat-trick back against her own sex.
Whilst Rich Strike failed to add to his Kentucky Derby success, his next three starts all saw him return to the level of form that landed him the “The Run for the Roses” on Timeform ratings.
In the Travers at Saratoga in August, it was Epicenter who finally delivered what he had long promised as he ran away from the pack to bag his first Grade 1. Rich Strike was involved in a close three-way finish for second but ended up losing out in fourth.
As a final prep prior to the Breeders’ Cup, Rich Strike would take in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic back at Churchill Downs. Just as it looked as though he was going to gain just a third success, Hot Rod Charlie came with a late lunge to deny him. The race wasn’t without controversy as jockey Sonny Leon appeared to lean out of the saddle on Rich Strike and attempt to interfere with the rallying Hot Rod Charlie. Leon protested that his saddle slipped but that didn’t hold sway with the stewards’ who suspended him for fifteen days.
Sadly, that race continues to leave a bitter taste in the mouth due to an ongoing saga of the Rich Strike team appealing against the shoes Hot Rod Charlie wore in that contest. As that is still in process, we’ll leave it there.
In the Breeders’ Cup Classic he would take on old rival Epicenter, Hot Rod Charlie, Taiba, Life Is Good and Flightline, who’d warmed up for this with a 19¼ thumping of some very-smart rivals in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar and earning a record breaking Timeform rating on the dirt of 143 in the process.
Flightline again proved imperious in the Classic with Rich Strike just over eleven lengths back in fourth, behind Olympiad and Taiba, and beating Life Is Good and Hot Rod Charlie. Sadly, Epicenter was pulled up down the back straight having suffered what would be a career-ending injury.
Three weeks later, Rich Strike finished last of six in the Grade 1 Clark at Churchill Downs. That rather flat performance was put down to a sinus issue after a veterinary scope.
Form worked out well
So, was the Kentucky Derby win a fluke?
Rich Strike may not have reached the winner’s circle in five starts since, but the form has stacked up. His Derby rating has been subsequently nudged up two pounds to 121 because of his consistency and the form of the race. Below is a summary of the runners and what they achieved later in the season with current Timeform rating:
- 2nd - Epicenter (1st Grade 1 Travers, Grade 2 Jim Dandy, 2nd Grade 1 Preakness - 126)
- 3rd – Zandon (2nd Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, Grade 2 Jim Dandy, 3rd Grade 1 Travers - 121)
- 5th – Mo Donegal (1st Grade 1 Belmont - 124)
- 7th – Tawny Port (1st Grade 3 Ohio Derby - 117)
- 11th – Classic Causeway (1st Grade 1 Belmont Derby - 115)
- 12th – Taiba (1st Pennsylvania Derby, 2nd Haskell, 3rd Breeders’ Cup Classic - 124)
- 13th – Crown Pride (2nd Group 1 Champions Cup - 118)
- 16th – White Abarrio (2nd Grade 3 Ohio Derby, 3rd Grade 1 Cigar Mile - 116)
- 17th – Charge It (1st Grade 3 Dwyer by 23 lengths – 127p)
- 18th – Cyberknife (1st Grade 1 Haskell, Grade 3 Matt Winn, 2nd Grade 1 Travers, Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, 3rd Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby - 123)
Several of his old rivals may have retired but Rich Strike will race on as a four-year-old in 2023. Whilst it’s highly unlikely he’ll get the chance to weave his way through a twenty-runner field again, one thing is for sure, he’s left an indelible mark on US racing history.
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