Ian Ogg, Tony McFadden and Matt Brocklebank answer some of the key questions following the release of the entries for Randox Grand National day at Aintree on Saturday.
Three Grade 1 races precede Saturday’s Randox Grand National – give us a name to note from the novice chase, novice hurdle of the Liverpool Hurdle.
Ian Ogg: The double green team made the decision to target Aintree rather than Cheltenham last year and perhaps that thinking is behind the campaign of Masked Man who has made a deep impression in his first season with the Twiston-Davies. Masked Man had been an intended runner on Trials Day at Prestbury Park after winning two of his first three starts and finishing second in a Grade 2 on the other but - for whatever reason - hasn't been sighted since scoring at Lingfield in mid-December. His form looks very solid, both under Rules and between the flags, he has been the subject of typically bullish proclamations and arriving on the back of a light season with proven ability to handle quicker ground may well work in his favour with the step up in trip (also entered in the Sefton over three miles) expected to bring about improvement.
Tony McFadden: Strong Leader hasn't been seen since flopping in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day, though his overall record at that venue is an uninspiring one in any case. That's certainly not true at Aintree, however, as Strong Leader won the Liverpool Hurdle two seasons ago and was runner-up in last year's race. He was also runner-up in the Grade 1 Top Novices' Hurdle in 2023. He has the form to play a major part in this year's Liverpool Hurdle and it would be little surprise to see him bounce back.
Matt Brocklebank: Salvator Mundi beat Romeo Coolio by seven lengths at this meeting last April and he's been kept fresh for a return to Merseyside after coming good at the third time of asking over fences at Thurles in February. Decent ground (watering being carried out already) would hold no fears and the Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old will be a big player here if taking up the two-mile Saturday engagement over Thursday's two and a half-mile Manifesto.
Last year’s 1-2-3-4 are back for another shot at the National itself. Which out of Nick Rockett, I Am Maximus, Grangeclare West and Iroko do you like the most?
Ian Ogg: As the market suggests, I Am Maximus looks the solid one of the quartet given the swing in the weights with the other three and he's only 1lb higher than 12 months ago. He ran a fine race in the Savills Chase on his penultimate start and although his Irish Gold Cup run was a little disappointing off the back of that performance, he probably ran to a similar level as when eighth the previous year and, arguably, he has the fewest questions to answer.
Tony McFadden: Grangeclare West is coming off the back of the ideal preparation having won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last time, the race used as a springboard to Grand National success by I Am Maximus in 2024 and Nick Rockett last year. He had an excellent chance at the weights in the Bobbyjo, but it was still encouraging to see him win so decisively and that should have left him spot on for another crack at the National. He stayed on well and deserves credit for finishing within three lengths of Nick Rockett last year after a mistake at the final fence cost him crucial momentum, so he looks likely to give another good account of himself.
Matt Brocklebank: I can't see me backing any of them but Nick Rockett's comeback run seems to get better the more times I watch it and he'll no doubt be ridden quietly to pick up the pieces this year - Patrick Mullins keeps stressing that he actually hit the front too early 12 months ago. It's no surprise to see his price tighten up a bit over the past few weeks and I'd probably have him upholding last year's form with the three who chased him home, despite the revised weights.
Who do you think could go off favourite?
Ian Ogg: It wouldn't surprise to see punters latch onto one of the less exposed, newer kids on the block on raceday and if the vibes around Iroko are positive in the latter stages of the week then, perhaps, last year's favourite could be the one. Iroko ran a fine race as a seven-year-old and everything had gone more or less to plan this season before the late decision to head to Cheltenham rather than Kelso. He scoped dirty after the Ultima but has had plenty of time to recover from whatever ailed him that day and he arguably retains the most scope to improve from his current rating after 11 chase starts.
Tony McFadden: I Am Maximus looks in pole position to head the market, particularly if, as expected, Paul Townend elects to keep the partnership intact. As mentioned above, I'd prefer Grangeclare West to I Am Maximus, though Jagwar is the most likely winner in my book. His clumsiness would have been a serious cause for concern in Grand Nationals prior to the modifications, but the course doesn't pose such a formidable test of jumping anymore and of greater importance is that he looks to be a well-handicapped horse. He did very well to get to within half a length of Johnnywho in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival after making mistakes and being sent wide in search of daylight.
Matt Brocklebank: Willie Mullins holds the aces and therefore whatever Paul Townend rides will probably be the most popular choice with punters. Throw in the fact that he's most likely to be aboard top-weight I Am Maximus, who has such strong National form already in the book, and it's hard not to see the public really siding with that one again. I've got a sneaky suspicion the lightly-raced novice Oscars Brother - another one for owner JP McManus - is going to be a big mover on the day, especially if there are showers around, while Panic Attack clearly has a big following too but I can't quite see Dan Skelton's mare topping the betting when the music stops and the tapes go back on Saturday.
Who is your dark horse in the big race this weekend?
Ian Ogg: Seven-year-old winners are few and far between but Quai De Bourbon has long appealed as an ideal type for this sort of contest and has time to improve on a modest chase record that has seen him win just one of his eight starts. Third in the 2025 renewal of the Martin Pipe (won by Better Days Ahead), Quai De Bourbon enjoyed a fair first season over fences, winning at the second attempt before non-completions in Grade 1s at Cheltenham at Aintree - looking threatening to a point on both occasions - then filling third in the Irish Grand National as the 11/2 favourite. Two more non-completions this season bely his talent but his third over two miles five at Leopardstown over Christmas was much more like it and he can improve again going back out in distance on quicker ground. His jumping has left something to be desired but as is well documented, the Grand National is no longer the test it once was and he retains plenty of scope from a rating just 3lb higher than for his good Fairyhouse run.
Tony McFadden: Hopefully 25/1 is big enough to constitute a 'dark horse' as I could see Stellar Story proving well suited by the test. It's only a couple of years ago that he devoured the Cheltenham hill to beat The Jukebox Man with the pair nicely clear in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. He essentially wasn't good enough in the top novice chases last season, though he did produce a couple of very smart efforts, most notably a creditable second in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival. He's been set some very tough tasks this season and failed to make a telling impact, but he did run well under unfavourable terms when third in the Bobbyjo last time and looks interesting on his handicap debut over a marathon trip.
Matt Brocklebank: I refuse to reveal my final workings here (Value Bet coming daily throughout the Grand National Festival later this week) but can't hide the fact I liked Lecky Watson around the 40/1 mark at Christmas and backed Gorgeous Tom when he was 66s following the unveiling of the weights towards the end of February. Last season's Brown Advisory winner Lecky Watson has been kept busy this year, just like last season's National hero from the same stable, and a proper stamina test on spring ground should play to his strengths; as will the current state of the fences on this course. He's still 40/1 in a spot, while Gorgeous Tom is into a best-priced 33/1 and he could get a bit shorter yet if the sun comes out this week. Should Darragh O'Keeffe happen to pick him over Monty's Star then the price could really crash, so that's something to keep an eye on, but I'm still happy enough with the pair of them as legitimate 'dark horses' as things stand.
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