Ross Williams picks out his best bets for Week 1 of the NFL season, with four games across Sunday in focus.
NFL betting tips: Week 1
3pts Los Angeles Chargers (-3) to beat the Las Vegas Raiders at 10/11 (General)
2pts Minnesota Vikings to beat the Green Bay Packers at EVS (General)
2pts Dameon Pierce & Jonathan Taylor both to score a touchdown at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Alvin Kamara 2+ rushing touchdowns & New Orleans Saints to win at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers
- When: Sunday 21:25 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
I love the Chargers this year and truly believe they will be right in the thick of Super Bowl contention in a few months. That road to Arizona begins on Sunday and, in some ways, they have the perfect week one match-up.
The biggest challenge for Los Angeles this season is getting over mental barriers. The talent on the roster is undeniable and should give them every chance of a championship push, but they first have to right a couple of wrongs and vanquish some lingering demons.
The first step is avenging their week 18 defeat to Las Vegas, which was enough to end their 2021 season early. One of the games of the year, the AFC West rivals went back-and-forth all night, before Daniel Carlson slotted a game-winning field goal as over-time expired.
The 35-32 defeat hurt the Chargers, but I fully expect it to galvanise them for this coming season, and they will be relishing the opportunity to get started in the best possible way.
The Raiders over-performed last season, while the Chargers didn’t quite live up to their potential. My gut feeling is a reversal in 2022.
Both teams have recruited big names, but the Bolts’ additions on the defensive side of the ball are frightening and should put them in an ideal spot to keep Derek Carr and Davante Adams quiet. J.C. Jackson – in particular – was a major move, finally filling a cornerback spot that’s been devoid of a standout for a little while.
Continuity is also important, and the Chargers have that this year as Brandon Staley enters his second season as head coach. The value of having processes in place over a healthy period of time cannot be underestimated, and I certainly prefer LA’s situation going into week one.
The Raiders have undertaken a regime change and although Josh McDaniels has plenty of top-level coaching experience and will likely be just fine, it may take some time for his philosophies to bed in.
With the firepower of Justin Herbert at their disposal, I expect the Chargers to pick up a relatively comfortable win on the road.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
- When: Sunday 21:25 BST
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
I’m taking a home underdog to win this week for one simple reason. I don’t think that they should be underdogs.
Week one brings obvious uncertainty and we won’t have a true measure on any of the 32 teams until the weekend is over, but when I look at the NFC North on paper, I see a division that is there for the taking, should the Vikings perform.
For the first time in recent memory, the Vikes head into a clash with Green Bay carrying the best wide receiver on the field. Davante Adams is gone and the Packers have not gone all-out to replace him with like-for-like talent.
Instead, plenty is riding on Aaron Rodgers’ ability to make his supporting cast out-play their reputations. He is very capable, of course, but I’m much more in favour of siding with the guaranteed production on the other side of the field.
Justin Jefferson is a stud of a receiver, now nestled firmly in the NFL’s top five at the position, and we know for a fact that Kirk Cousins can get the ball in his hands.
He’s the difference-maker in this one, and I expect the former LSU stand-out to enjoy plenty of success against a secondary that has taken untold flack over the last couple of years.
Add a healthy Dalvin Cook into the equation, and Green Bay may be staring down the barrel of a startling realisation in the cauldron of U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
- When: Sunday 18:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
Clashes between the Colts and Texans are never particularly pretty, and I don’t expect that to change too much on Sunday evening.
Indianapolis have plenty of optimism heading into this season and week one presents a round peg/round hole situation as they visit their division rivals.
The Texans were atrocious against the run in 2021 and even if they’ve improved over the offseason, the problems are too deep-rooted to fix so quickly. Houston shipped over 2,400 rushing yards last year and 25 rushing touchdowns.
It’s a huge Achilles heel, and the Colts should be looking to keep things simple all game long in order to exploit it. They have JONATHAN TAYLOR on the roster, so they might as well use him.
Taylor was phenomenal last season, cementing his status as the most dangerous running back in the NFL by averaging more than a touchdown per game.
There’s little value in backing a single Taylor touchdown as it’s so anticipated, but there may be something in also roping in a second running back.
Little is expected of the Texans this season, but there is an eagerness to see how DAMEON PIERCE gets on. The rookie has been named Houston’s starting back from the off and the hype around the former Florida star has grown and grown.
The Colts defence isn’t too shabby, but if Pierce picks up the carries I suspect he will, he certainly knows where the end-zone is after scoring 13 times for the Gators in his senior year and that kind of form may well translate into NFL success.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
- When: Sunday 18:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
The 2022 Atlanta Falcons look pretty hapless on paper and they run into a much-improved New Orleans Saints outfit in week one.
This fixture usually brings some added spice to the schedule – they really don’t like each other - but I’m not anticipating a particularly close-fought thing on Sunday.
The Falcons had no answer to the league’s rushing attacks last season – conceding over 130 yards per game on average – and very little has been done in the offseason to address the problem.
This should have ALVIN KAMARA salivating this weekend.
The Saints star has 47 career rushing touchdowns to his name and I fancy him to add a couple more to his tally. With the additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and a returning Michael Thomas, New Orleans can stretch the field for Jameis Winston this season and that can only spell trouble.
Less defensive focus on Kamara is a recipe for disaster. Watch him go through the Atlanta defence like a hot knife through butter on Sunday.
Odds correct at 1505 BST (09/09/22)
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