Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for Scottish Open featuring Bernd Wiesberger
Jason Daniels steps in for Ben Coley to look ahead to this week's Scottish Open which has attracted an elite field – read his full preview below.
Golf betting tips: Scottish Open
1.5pts win Xander Schauffele at 14/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1.5pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 Sky Bet, William Hill, Betfred)
1pt e.w. Branden Grace at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt e.w. Andrew Johnston at 70/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Victor Perez at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt e.w. Matthew Jordan at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 Sky Bet, William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Benjamin Hebert at 300/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 Sky Bet)
The three Opens, a wonderful trio of events that sometimes run to form but also often end as a war of attrition – isn't that the beauty?
Back to some sort of normality after 'that' year with the Scottish Open taking its rightful place as the precursor to the big one, and once again back to the halcyon days of a top-class field.
Of course, that's not to say that cream will rise to the top, or that naff cliches won't pop up, but after Brandon Stone's shock victory at Gullane courtesy of a final round 60, both outings at the Renaissance Club have seen nine of the then combined world's top 30 give it their best with only Tommy Fleetwood managing to return a place – if you don't count Justin Thomas's big share of ninth place two years ago.
Played fifteen months apart, the last two runnings have seen the trophy decided by a play-off but with wildly different scores. Bernd Wiesberger hit 30 birdies on his way to a 22-under three hole play-off win over Benjamin Hebert, who himself had 28 red figures, whilst last year's victor, Aaron Rai, shared a combined total of 34 birdies with his play-off rival Tommy Fleetwood, and that with a final round 64 to record exactly half of the Austrian at 11 under the card.
Those that played in the worst of conditions last year will certainly remember the howling wind and torrential rain. For us viewers and punters, viewing Ian Poulter and Fleetwood's struggles did provide some sadistic pleasure offset only by the wonderful attitude shown by the eventual runner-up who commented as rain dripped the flowing locks: "It's golf isn't it? Let's face it, with the money we play for these days it does not do any harm does it? It's fine. I'll play in it every day."
Of course, that was held in October and conditions are unlikely to be that wild again with the event back in early summer. Nevertheless, and typical of the coastline, luck of the draw may tell as whilst the course is currently firm and fast and with severe rough in places, rain is forecast at some point before and maybe during play. That can only put the emphasis on accuracy over brute force and whilst we will always associate last year's winner with the most fastidious of natures, both he and the Austrian ranked extremely highly in tee-to-green without necessarily providing anything dramatic off the tee box, although they might have carried out their art in slightly different manners.
Whilst Wiesberger and Benjamin Hebert topped the scoring on par-5s in their year, it was of less relevance a year later, the par-four rankings a huge indicator of the eventual result and putting more emphasis on quality of play around the green (or play from 30 yards in), although Fleetwood was in the midst of a horrendous putting display which ultimately cost him the title, a missed four footer on the first play-off hole indicative of his short stick throughout the week..
That said, with Rai, Fleetwood, third placed Robert Rock and tied-ninth Matthew Southgate ranking top-five in tee-to-green, with three of them top-15 off the tee, it's pretty clear an all-round ball-striking week is required.
Rock actually ties in nicely for form at the Irish Open, tied fourth when Wiesberger was joint runner-up to Jon Rahm, winner or not in Shane Lowry's year, runner-up again in the wind and rain at Maynooth and with plenty on undulating, windy tracks, 'proper' Links or not. That previous winners of the Scottish Open, Wiesberger and Stone also have Dunhill Links form tells enough. Top that with the two winners in North Berwick finishing runner-up at the Irish Open just a week before and last week's Irish Open must also have some say. Overall, we are looking at a score somewhere between the two previous runnings, the rough up, but greens becoming more receptive.
Schauffele fancied to make class tell
It would be tough to rule out much of the world's top 60, of which 23 are present here this week, but many of these will surely be here for the tune-up and will hope the conditions give them a taste of what is to come at Royal St. Georges.
Only Dustin Johnson is missing from the very best top five players, but with Jon Rahm having not played for a month and with a less-than-enviable record in Scotland, Collin Morikawa making his debut in this event and Justin Thomas looking very out with his driver and putter, XANDER SCHAUFFELE should be the best of the top five.
A could've/should've-won runner-up at the Pheonix and the Farmers, and a third place finish at Augusta when in with a real winning opportunity seemed to set the 27-year-old off on finding why he wasn't converting but he has set off on 'reprogramming' his mindset with his father, insisting in an interview with Golf Digest that “there’s no shame in 10 [career] seconds and four firsts. If you take a look at a long career, there’s a lot of seconds. Jack Nicklaus had a lot of seconds [19 runners-up in majors]. So did Tiger Woods [seven in majors]."
Indeed, his latest top-10 at the U.S Open at Torrey Pines following an 11th place finish at Muirfield suggests he is back to the form that has landed a total of eight top-10s from 16 Majors, six in the top five.
With a new dedication to 'flow state' (or 'being in the zone') and a game returning to his best – latest two events ranking top-10 for off-the-tee but crucially for approach and tee-to-green – his whole game looks back to at least the form that took him to overnight lead and ultimate runner-up at Carnoustie. A different level of player now, and one that genuinely could have won three events since January including The Masters, he is the most appealing of the top set of players travelling over from the PGA Tour and is backed to win only.
Of the ten previous winners of this event, four started around 22/1 or less, with all of Luke Donald, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler going into the tournament ranked in the top-10 in the official world ranking. Still, at a combined 2/1, we only need one player at around that price.
With Rory McIlroy and Matthew Fitzpatrick making little appeal at the prices it is easy to see why Tyrell Hatton, multiple winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links and gutsy winner of tough events at Bay Hill, Wentworth and Abu Dhabi has been backed. That PGA win came off a short spell off the course after a missed cut at Winged Foot and he could easily repeat those form figures on a course on which he was 14th on his only run in 2019. He will be happy if it blows a bit and it's really only the price that stops him going in the staking plan.
Wiesberger makes strong Scottish appeal
Finishing second, fifth, 15th and 25th at the Alfred Dunhill Links as well as a wronged runner-up here last year, Tommy Fleetwood must surely fall over the line soon but continually finds someone to beat him mainly due to flat stick woes, an issue he has had for some time. The affable runner-up at The Open in 2019 may be better placed to grind through conditions at Royal St. Georges next week and at a bigger price 2019 Scottish, Open champion WIESBERGER is much preferred.
The 36-year-old made his way to 39th in the world by the time the 2017 season was finished but a freak wrist injury saw 2018 end with him ranked 175th and sinking. Fast forward to his unforseen victory in Denmark in May the following year when ranked outside the top 350 and a victory from renowned wind players including Robert Macintyre, Romain Langasque, Paul Dunne et al – and Wiesberger had confirmed he could still get the job done.
Since then, the Austrian has seen his star in the ascendancy once again courtesy of that victory here, in Italy (in front of Fitzpatrick, Macintyre again and Andrew Johnston) and again at Himmerland, where he gagged up, leading from the gate and never looking likely to be threatened. In between, a third at the tricky Nedbank, top-10 at Abu Dhabi and tied-sixth at the Dubai Desert Classic all read well for Open 'style' players, whilst his latest 5th in Munich came courtesy of being ranked top three in tee-to-green, approaches and greens-in-regulation, three facets that have remained at a constantly high level for a couple of months and see him ranked 15th, third and 7th for the year respectively. Just outside the world's top 50 and keen to be on the Ryder Cup team, he has to make a solid charge this week and is the headline selection.
With the Irish Open clear in the mind and with such affect on recent runnings, a quick look at the leaderboard suggests a few that could come on enough for that outing, particularly those that came again on a more difficult day than Saturday's third round.
Winner Lucas Herbert can't be ruled out after a terrific scrambling display in his final round on the Mount Juliet course after displaying a top grade tee to green game for much of the first three days. His previous win in Dubai and form at Portugal and the Dunhill Links pointed to his chance, but we have probably missed the boat now and of more interest are a few of the South African contingent, representing a country that has won five of this season's 21 European events and has a terrific record in the Scottish Open.
Grace to enhance South African record
Christiaan Bezuidenhout got left behind on moving day last week and will probably find this too 'easy' a test but both Garrick Higgo and BRANDEN GRACE give a strong hand to a country that has won this event five times this century, including Brandon Stone's shock win in 2018.
The younger man gives his compatriot 11 years and 336 events worth of experience and is certainly not finished winning having already won three times since April, including at Congaree on the PGA tour, to allow him to play just about anywhere he wants. His all-out attack may suit slightly gentler conditions, a style that allowed Stone to shoot 60 in the final round at Gullane, and he did take a week to acclimatise from the Canary Islands to the PGA tour before winning (granted it was a Major). With recent form containing a couple of missed-cuts, though in good company, and just days after a midfield finish in Michigan, I fancy experience to win out.
33-year-old Grace has always been a terrific scrambler and we can go back to the start of the strokes-gained era to see examples of his prowess especially in windy conditions. From his victory back in 2012 at the Alfred Dunhill Links, the 13-time career winner has gone back-to-back at the prestigious Qatar Masters, won the RBC Heritage and recently came flying back to the winner's circle at the Puerto Rico Open. In between he has recorded four top-five finishes in Majors, a runner-up to Rickie Fowler in Pheonix and, most relevant, a play-off loss to Mickelson at Castle Stuart in 2013. Wind anyone?
His victory in his home Open last year when cruising home from Louis Oosthuizen sees him join an illustrious list that includes Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Tim Clark and Brandon Stone, all winners of both that important event and the Scottish Open, and his form coming into this week is there amongst the best – the fourth place finish at Muirfield being followed by a tied-seventh at the US Open, on a course that would not have played to his strengths. At both the latter tournaments, Grace ranked top-11 for approaches, around the green and tee-to-green where he found over 20 shots on the field.
The latest victory came courtesy of two almost unbelievable bunker shots leading to an eagle-birdie finish – Grace through and through – and the previously ranked top-20 player mentioned that the past couple of years had been a struggle in many ways, highlighted by the death of his father: "And all that we have been through, there’s some light at the end of the tunnel.”
Back Beef to get back on track
It was tough to choose between Andy Sullivan, Eddie Pepperell and ANDREW JOHNSTON but with the former wanting an event with at least the score of two years ago (and looking very in-and-out during the Irish Open) and the 2018 runner-up missing his last two cuts, the latest when well fancied, the man who shot 62 in 2019 to nab a place at Royal Portrush got the nod at circa 75-1.
The Londoner, who won at Spey Hill and Le Vaudreuil (as did Aaron Rai, defending champion this week) during an excellent Challenge Tour campaign, has only since won at Valderrama, although from an Open-style field, but has enough in his record to make him of serious interest when conditions are right.
Sixth at Royal Troon in the same year reads well amongst top-10 finishes twice at Wentworth, Qatar and, of course, at this course when his nine-under 62 went nicely alongside a second round 65. After four top-20 finishes in his last five, now is the time to get with Beef.
The 32-year-old isn't shy in admitting to problems, firstly coping with what was his new-found fame here and over the Atlantic, but more recently through the lockdown period when he found it necessary to withdraw from a few events including here last year after one round. Happily, he looks to have regained his focus, smiling away as he showed off his young daughter during an interview in Ireland last week and admitting that golf has taken a back seat. That seems to have freed him up again to play a lot more relaxed and re-establish his previously excellent tee-to-green game, on show in four of his last five outings including in Munich.
Last week, Johnston was lacking with his irons but ground out a top-10 via a top-5 scrambling performance, and if he can just lock all the pieces together on a course he is proven to like, he could be smiling even more.
Jordan heads tasty trio of big-priced dangers
There are cases for the likes of Links specialist Mathew Southgate and Edoardo Molinari, a winner of this event at Loch Lomond and at Gleneagles, but the final three votes go to MATTHEW JORDAN, VICTOR PEREZ and BENJAMIN HEBERT.
25-year-old Jordan is surely a winner-in-waiting and it will be a matter of when, not if.
Winner of the St.Andrews Links trophy as an amateur (1997 winner Justin Rose won this event 17 years later), he played in the 2017 Walker Cup against one of the strongest USA sides of recent times before his first full year as a professional saw him lead the British Masters at Hillside with an opening course record 63 before finishing 15th. After his first, and thus far only, victory in Italy at the lower level, he led halfway at the Dunhill Links before eventually finishing fifth on a leaderboard that was full of Links specialists.
Since then progress has been steady rather than spectacular but it would be hard to argue too much with top-20s at Oman, Close House, Portugal and Cyprus twice. 2021 started very slowly with seven inauspicious efforts before a top-20 in Munich and last weekend's 12th but he is starting to move in the right direction. There may be a tendency to rely on length off the tee and it will be interesting to see how his game develops but having been top-20 in tee-to-green in those last two events, he is worth chancing at the price.
The aforementioned Dunhill Links saw Perez show his tremendous skill with his irons and he looks priced on his last four missed-cuts rather than his latent ability.
Those four events include three Majors – The Masters, PGA and US Open – whilst the Memorial is hardly a backwater. Before that, the Frenchman recorded a top-10 at Sawgrass and a semi-final loss in the World Matchplay and back a little bit we find top-10 finishes in Saudi and at the DP Worlds in Dubai, an event at which he could have won the Race To Dubai. With ball striking of the highest quality at times, it is hard to forget the way he played when runner-up to Hatton at Wentworth and I'm happy to take the chance that a return to a course where he has form figures of 28-14 and with two Sunday rounds of 66, will inspire him to prove better than his three-figure price.
Hebert is definitely more speculative but he raises his game for this course having gone runner-up and 19th over the past two years and also can pop up after a rough spell.
A multiple winner on the Challenge Tour, the second Frenchman in this week's list followed a missed-cut and 55th in Ireland to lose in the play-off to Wiesberger before another set of average performances were followed by a six-man play-off with eventual winner Hatton in Turkey. Top-20 in the WGC-Mexico and similar positions in Qatar and Abu Dhabi read fine and a series of missed-cuts is interspersed with a tied-seventh in the shortened Porsche European Open.
It's no certainty, but it's clear the 34-year-old doesn't need to be in form to return a performance around here and with the event moving to a different course next year, this may be the time to grab another payout at big prices.
Posted at 1100 BST on 06/07/21
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