Rory McIlroy headlines the Australian Open as he seeks to win at another legendary golf course. Ben Coley has the preview.
- Rory McIlroy headlines the field
- Masters and Open spots available
- Royal Melbourne an ideal host
Golf betting tips: Australian Open
1.5pts e.w. Cameron Smith at 33/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1.5pts e.w. Lucas Herbert at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 125/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w. Matt Jones at 175/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w. Danny Willett at 225/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
A lifetime ago, in February of this year, Rory McIlroy saluted the significance of his victory at Pebble Beach.
"There's a few what I would call cathedrals of golf," he said after knocking off another Signature Event on the PGA Tour with very little fuss. "Here, Augusta, St Andrews, obviously. Maybe a few more you could add in there. And I had a big fat zero on all of those going in here, so to knock one off at Pebble is very cool."
Two months later, suddenly he was two-thirds of the way to a self-identified triple crown after somehow winning at Augusta National. He hasn't played St Andrews since and, should he continue to skip the Dunhill Links, will have another year and a half to wait. But I wonder, when he speaks to the media about Royal Melbourne this week, might three become four; might triple crown become a different kind of grand slam?
Because there can be no doubt that Royal Melbourne is an extraordinary golf club, its West Course considered by many to be the greatest golf course in the world, the East not far behind, and the Composite, on which the Australian Open will be played, perhaps surpassed only by Augusta as a tournament venue befitting of the world's best golfers. This place is the very definition of a golfing cathedral, as I feel sure McIlroy will agree.
Given that he's won the Australian Open before, another Stonehaven Cup won't on the face of it change much at the end of this spectacular year which, don't forget, has also featured an away Ryder Cup win, another Players Championship, another Irish Open. But the course. Should McIlroy win here at Royal Melbourne – which may not host a tournament he's eligible to play in for several years after this – he really would head to St Andrews with only one more thing to do in this sport. Motivation in December can be hard to find, but not for McIlroy, not here.
It goes without saying that regardless of the course, the Open Championship will be harder to win. But there is a mitigating factor here and it explains to some degree his price, which is surprisingly large. St Andrews, we know, is made for him when the wind is down, whereas Royal Melbourne will not be as vulnerable to his driving prowess and while driver will be in the bag, which it wasn't in Delhi recently, using it to significantly widen the gap between himself and the rest won't be easy even after so much rain of late.
Royal Melbourne is a relatively short par 71 featuring just two par-fives, a couple of short par-fours, and a trio of par-threes which range from short to medium by today's standards. It is known for some of the best bunkering and green complexes in the world, the latter aligning it with Augusta, and Alister MacKenzie responsible for both. It's hard to win the Masters if you're not really confident in what you can do when missing a green, the one aspect of the McIlroy game which perhaps remains under-appreciated. The same will undoubtedly apply here, too.
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We don't have a lot of recent professional course form to go on, the 2019 Presidents Cup the latest significant example, the 2013 Talisker Masters and subsequent World Cup (they were held at the same course in successive weeks) before that. Jason Day won the latter and there's a fabulous chipper who has gone close to winning the Masters. One week earlier, Adam Scott, who had won the Masters in April that same year and has always been delightful around the greens, captured the Aussie version before McIlroy denied him this title over at Royal Sydney.
Although lots has changed in golf since then, looking at the list of contenders behind Scott and Day underlines that course management, brains over brawn, accuracy and sharp short-games should be important. Thomas Bjorn and Matt Kuchar tick most of these boxes, as well as being highly capable links golfers – important not just because Royal Melbourne's greens are still firm despite the weather, but that the wind can play an equally significant role when it whips up off Port Phillip Bay, which it is forecast to on Thursday and for parts of the weekend.
But there are others, too. Brendon de Jonge, Max Kieffer, Gregory Bourdy and Stuart Manley are short-hitting, accurate players who might not have been able to mix it with the elites at many other courses, ditto David Hearn, Kevin Streelman, and Kiradech Aphibarnrat. In the Talisker Masters, Kuchar was again a factor behind Scott, and the eye is drawn to the fact that Peter Senior and Peter Fowler, both in their 50s, were competitive.
All this being said, surely we all raised an eyebrow at 6/1 McIlroy when betting opened. Two weeks ago he went off 7/2 for the DP World Tour Championship featuring Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Ludvig Aberg, Robert MacIntyre, eventual winner Matt Fitzpatrick and other class players, and came within a shot of winning for the fifth time this year.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen was third at 40/1, missed the cut last week, and is 20/1 here. McIlroy meanwhile is eased in the betting. However you slice it, that simply doesn't make sense and were the forecast calmer, I'd have to be siding with McIlroy at anything north of 4/1.
It's rare these days to be surprised by a market like this and it's difficult to know exactly how to respond, but I've immediately quelled thoughts of siding with Si Woo Kim, who is just too close to McIlroy in the betting. I liked him because of his excellent form, accuracy off the tee, exceptional chipping and bunker play and solid Augusta results, but not at a general 16/1 against the second-best player in the world.
Adam Scott has top-fives in eight of his last 12 Australian Opens, has been first, second and third in five pro starts here and needs a big week to crack the top 50, but again I had expected McIlroy's presence and price to force Scott's out and it hasn't. He'll play well again, as should Marc Leishman, but I doubt Royal Melbourne is more suitable than Royal Queensland, the favourite is better, and the odds are the same. Seventh place in 2013 came via a brilliant final round but he was 41st ahead of it and never had a chance.
Scott has been a big drifter on Betfair Exchange, where he's 26.0 at the time of writing, but at 10 points shorter with the sportsbooks doesn't appeal anything like as much. As with last week, the worry is that he plays well without winning, a persistent theme the last few years.
The one alternative near the head of the market I was as tempted by as I was McIlroy is Min Woo Lee, playing in the same three-ball, but with the bits and pieces of 16/1 gone and not much 14/1 remaining, he too is left out.
He has plenty of experience of Royal Melbourne from his amateur days and when it comes to beating the favourite, remember who finished second to him in Houston – a certain Scottie Scheffler. He beat Matt Fitzpatrick in a play-off for the Scottish Open, too, and in front of massive crowds is the kind of cocksure youngster who is well capable of raising his game and denying McIlroy should it come to it.
But I would rather take a chance, and it is a pretty big chance, on CAM SMITH in the hope that last week's embarrassment over the final nine holes right on his doorstep is enough to spark immediate improvement.
Smith really ought to love this as he's typically dynamite on and around the greens and while his putter has let him down a few times lately, his chipping, pitching and bunker play generally hasn't.
Certainly, his missed cut here in 2013 is of no concern whatsoever and he knows Royal Melbourne well. Among the many Australian Open venues it appeals as the most suitable, so this first opportunity to play the event here is one he'll have been eagerly awaiting.
And while he did fold tamely last Friday, I thought the way he spoke afterwards about his preparation, the way things unfolded after what had been a promising start, suggested he feels closer than he might appear to be.
"Yep, it was shit," he told Golf Digest's Evin Priest. "If you had have told me that was going to happen this morning, when I was warming up, I’d have told you otherwise. I don’t know, I just don’t know. I am so confused. I was feeling good, really confident and just couldn’t get anything going. It was weird.
"I was in-between clubs a lot today. Hit a couple of bad shots that I would have liked to have again. Drove the ball well, hit a lot of nice shots. Tough lies killed me today and then couldn’t get up and down."
Smith went on to hint that he's sometimes lacked desire but doesn't right now as he seeks a return to his best and this is, at the very least, the right kind of test to face in the wake of such a disappointment. Whereas Royal Queensland was soft and played into the hands of bombers like David Puig in the end, Royal Melbourne is certain to demand creativity, touch, and ability in the wind.
Scott actually talked about why RQ worked against his compatriot, saying: "He's got an incredible, incredible short game to lean into and actually that kind of gets a little neutralised here because it's pretty grainy and even as great as he is, it's kind of not helping him as much as it would if he was having an off day with the ball-striking."
Smith demonstrated all of those required qualities in his finest hour at St Andrews, he has a fabulous record at Augusta, and at considerably bigger prices than last week I am hoping for a reaction. He's certainly worth getting on-side at enormous exchange prices and I'm happy playing each-way to slightly reduced stakes.
The other one I am interested in among the big names is LUCAS HERBERT, who hails from this part of Australia, knows the course and the style of golf very well, and has one of the very best short-games in the field.
He's long and sometimes wayward off the tee which does worry me a little, but his record (23-20-6-MC-10-7-5) in this event is exemplary and I'm reminded of how well he battled the wind for all three of his most significant victories, in Ireland, Dubai and Bermuda.
The latter wouldn't be a course you'd expect to suit him but his shot-making creativity was drawn out by fierce conditions and, after a closing 64 for fifth place in Saudi Arabia a couple of weeks ago, he should be geared up for this.
Herbert looked like he was going to run away and win his first Stonehaven Cup when leading at halfway last year but failed to see it through. Hopefully he can threaten redemption and, returning once more to McIlroy, he is another big character I could see going toe-to-toe with the favourite.
One other factor of note is that the winner gets into the Masters and the top three not already exempt will be invited to the Open, so for players like Herbert this is a massive opportunity. I doubt he'll need the additional incentive but it certainly can't hurt, and I've certainly no doubt he'd rather not repeat last summer's mad dash to Final Qualifying, which he came through comfortably.
Herbert has a late tee-time and there are small hints in the forecast that it could be advantageous, with the wind very strong when McIlroy, Lee, Scott and Smith tee-off. We'll see what happens and there's inherent volatility in this forecast, but it is nice to see him on the opposite side to McIlroy in the hope it may be to his benefit.
Bernd notice
Davis Bryant will be seeking to emulate fellow US raider Ryggs Johnston, last year's surprise winner, and his tidy game could work nicely after an encouraging Aussie debut in Brisbane, but I much prefer to side with experience with conditions set to be extremely tough and there really aren't many who appeal beyond the top 10 or so in the market.
BERND WIESBERGER comes with a health warning given his putting but he was much improved last week for 10th place and, with his long-game having been firing for the last two months, he looks a viable place candidate at the very least.
Since turning 40, the former Ryder Cup player has really turned a corner with his ball-striking, his customarily strong approach play as good as anyone's. And, like Kim, he's also a dynamite chipper, so in all departments bar one he looks to have the ideal profile for Royal Melbourne.
With a record of 14-12-30-10 from his four starts in Australia he's been very effective under these conditions and, playing on a career money exemption, I get the sense that he's in for a big season if he can get that putter to behave on a more consistent basis.
On that we'll see, but from an afternoon tee-time on day one, in a tournament where I do strongly believe that experience and course management will be vital, this quality tee-to-green operator can better last week's tie for 10th, which came after a slow start on his first outing in a month.
He can be backed at 125/1 with several firms while Paddy Power offer 80s without McIlroy, Lee and Scott and BoyleSports go 90/1 with three more places, or there's 22/1 in the top continental European market which looks very much winnable. Take your pick.
Surprise hat-trick for Jones?
First of two minimum-stakes outsiders to sign off is MATT JONES, twice a winner of this title.
Jones went 1-2-1 across three appearances from 2015 to 2019, had previous been second in 2010 and has another couple of top-10s and two more top-25s to show for his 12 tries in the Australian Open, which makes for a pretty formidable record across 15 or so years.
Yes, he's been on the slide more recently but even his last visit demonstrated how capable he remains, having sat sixth through 54 holes, and a year earlier he'd been on the heels of the top 10 for much of the week before a poor final round. Time after time he's played well in this, across a range of courses and conditions.
Always in possession of a neat short-game, Jones's two PGA Tour wins both also came in the wind, first in Texas and then in Florida at the Honda Classic, so the forecast looks a big positive and I think this is a considerably more suitable challenge than last week's, where big-hitters shone at a course he's barely played before.
Royal Melbourne is much more familiar and while his form is up and down, note that his best two efforts this year came when fourth at Valderrama and sixth at Fanling, while his standout short-game display (it has been a problem generally) came back home in Adelaide. The first two are short and ask questions which many others don't, and at both of them his experience went a long way.
It's speculative, but his pedigree and those flashes of form make Jones one to take a small chance on at three-figure prices.
I'll finish with an even more outlandish selection, DANNY WILLETT.
The obvious negative here is that he has a best of ninth all year, that back in January, and has only cracked the top 20 once since finishing a solid 13th in the Canadian Open. With injuries having been a problem over the prior couple of seasons, that means he last hit the frame in September 2022 when somehow throwing away the Fortinet Championship on the final hole.
He's only had one shocker since August, making four cuts in seven, missing two of them narrowly, and showing fight in the Bermuda winds just as he had at Wentworth, scraping through to the weekend on both occasions. Still, I can't make a form case based on anything he's done over the last few months, which is why he's on offer at massive prices even in a field which thins out quickly beyond the first dozen.
What I can do is point to his Augusta win, which came after he'd led the Open at St Andrews, as evidence that this is fundamentally the right kind of course for him. Willett won the Masters because Jordan Spieth opened the door at the 12th, but thereafter the shot I remember best is his ice-cool chip at the 17th and he is dynamite around the greens, a talent which remains almost a decade later.
He has history in Australia, too, at another course (Royal Adelaide) which has undergone work by MacKenzie. Willett won the Australian Amateur Stroke Play Championship in 2008, at which time he was the number one amateur in the world. It's a bit surprising he's not been back more often as a pro, but among four visits he does have third place in Perth and while again dated form, this style of golf undoubtedly plays to his strengths.
The deemphasis on driving and potential for nous and ability both in the wind and around the green to be vital should all be in Willett's favour and while no, I'm not really expecting him to down McIlroy and end a four-year winless run, he is a rare thing in this field: a golfer at big odds who is capable of doing so, having won some of the very biggest tournaments on the DP World Tour, plus arguably the biggest of them all.
Ultimately, I want to chance him at 100/1 and bigger but no less than that in a tournament made tricky not just by McIlroy's presence, but by his price. I don't blame anyone for getting involved but again, the wind is reason enough to avoid doing so. Just about.
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Posted at 09:00 GMT on 02/12/25
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