Two frequent major contenders who became PGA Tour winners at long last in 2025 make up Ben Coley's antepost staking plan for the US Open.
Golf betting tips: US Open
2pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Cameron Young at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Shinnecock Hills returns to host the US Openmafter a relatively short gap of eight years and, just as at Oakmont last summer, we know exactly what we're getting. Thanks to JJ Spaun's heroics the winning score still hasn't been over-par since 2018, when Brooks Koepka won here in one-over, and something around level par will probably be competitive at another of America's most fearsome golf courses.
I doubt we'll get quite the drama we did in 2018, when Zach Johnson accused the USGA of having lost the course, Phil Mickelson hit a moving ball and a huge draw bias blew things wide open on Saturday, but the US Open does generally deliver. It isn't for everyone, but I like the idea that each major has its own identity and if this one's is to push the boundaries of supposed fairness in an inherently unfair sport, that's fine with me.
While scoring may be similar to Oakmont, set-up won't be and I imagine Shinnecock will push us back towards big hitters, who had generally dominated the US Open before Spaun's win. Before him, the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Wyndham Clark, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson combined for eight of the previous nine renewals, with a speed-boosted Matt Fitzpatrick also plenty long enough.
The leaderboard from 2018 certainly suggests as much, with three of the top five genuine powerhouses. It was also a classy quintet, featuring the defending champion, another player who had contended for the title a year earlier, the world number one, and the reigning Masters champion. Looking back now, nine of the 14 are major winners, five of them in the US Open, and for all the fuss over set-up this was a quality edition.
If Clark, Fitzpatrick and Spaun have taught us anything it's that we should expect potential candidates to emerge during the months before Shinnecock. Clark had won his first PGA Tour title, Fitzpatrick had contended for a major for the first time a month before, and Spaun had lost a play-off at Sawgrass, generally looking better than ever. It could pay to have the US Open in mind throughout the spring.
For now, it's 4/1 that Scottie Scheffler completes the career grand slam and I don't suppose he'll get much bigger, but as with the PGA Championship this does look a great chance for TOMMY FLEETWOOD.
I won't repeat the case laid out for Aronimink the previous month as it's virtually identical. He is the second or third best player in the world as of today and the market assumes he won't be come May and June. That may prove a mistake, as he looks to me like the complete package now he's shaken the monkey off his back and won on the PGA Tour.
With a strong US Open record featuring three top-fives, the best of them coming here when storming home with a Sunday 63 only to be denied by Koepka, Fleetwood ought to arrive as one of the key threats to the favourite. Backing him now, when he's five or six places further down the betting than he deserves to be, seems the sensible move. He's surely going to be well-fancied during tournament week.
Beyond Fleetwood, I've been trying to find a way to side with Ludvig Aberg, who played very well from June onwards in 2025 and seems set for a massive season. Some appear to be growing frustrated with the Swede and four major missed cuts already is certainly more than we'd all have expected, but I do maintain the view that he's a genuine superstar. It took Scheffler a while to put everything together and while he's something else, Aberg should emerge as a consistent threat to him.
Unfortunately he's been given maximum respect in the betting and with Viktor Hovland struggling for genuine top-level consistency, I can't see much sense in backing him, either. Hovland has been going off around 33/1 for majors lately and will continue to appeal at those odds having threatened to win at least one in each of the last four years, but unless he returns to his 2023 best he'll remain where he is in the betting.
Fitzpatrick is a good price at 80s in a place but the two I'm more interested in are Min Woo Lee and CAMERON YOUNG, with preference for the latter.
Lee remains a player of immense potential, he already has a US Open top-five finish to his name, and towards the back-end of 2025 he was making strides in the area he needed to. A prodigious driver with a gorgeous short-game, if he can dial in his approach work and find a way to harness his power when he needs to, the Australian can certainly become a member of the game's elite.
For now though he's still priced on the idea rather than the substance of his form so while I do like big-hitters who are confident chippers for Shinnecock in general, I'm more comfortable siding with the equally powerful Young.
With six top-10s in his last 16 major appearances, Young has been a regular contender for top honours and that now includes the US Open, after he finished fourth at Oakmont. His versatility is underlined by near-misses at Southern Hills and St Andrews and he also has a pair of good Masters performances to his name, so I won't be alone in expecting big things now that he's a PGA Tour winner.
As much as that breakthrough in the Wyndham Championship is relevant, it's his Ryder Cup display which I keep coming back to. Young was playing in his home state of New York when standing tall for a beaten United States side, coming up clutch to beat Justin Rose on the final hole when sent out first in the singles, and that really could be the making of him.
It also demonstrates the potential for him to be at an advantage playing in New York, which he is here, and while he blew out in the 2018 US Open let's remember he was an amateur at the time. Now a proven winner who has held firm under immense pressure in several of golf's biggest events, he's bound to be popular with punters if he turns up for this in good form.
Based on the way he's played since June, that seems likely and I'd rate the US Open as his clear best chance to become a major champion in 2026.
Posted at 10:00 GMT on 31/12/25
Ben Coley's golf tipping record by year
2025: +136.20pts
2024: +255.00pts
2023: +312.22pts
2022: +585.04pts
2021: +692.51pts
2020: +363.56pts
2019: -145.12pts
2018: +50.73pts
2017: +316.45pts
2016: +190.87pts
2016-2025 total: +2657.46pts
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