- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +30.9pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Nelson Semedo to commit 2+ fouls at 6/4 (Sporting Index)
1pt Pedro Neto 1+ assists at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Erik ten Hag must be wondering what he has let himself in for.
Struggling for consistency on the pitch, the only constant at Old Trafford seems to be the behind-the-scenes drama that Marcus Rashford added to over the past few days.
The Red Devils' attempts to salvage something from a sorry season next take in Molineux on Thursday night, a ground where Manchester City, Tottenham and Chelsea have all come a cropper this campaign.
Indeed, the hosts would leapfrog Ten Hag's side with victory - an eventuality that could push United into the bottom half of the Premier League table should other results go against them.
What are the best bets?
Trying to predict the outcome of Manchester United games this season is a fool's errand as evidenced by their ridiculously inconsistent hot-and-cold record of W14 D3 L14 in all competitions.
If pushed, I'd be backing Wolves here - they're unbeaten in nine at home, winning six and drawing three in that run, having beaten the aforementioned trio of big guns, as well as holding Aston Villa and Newcastle.
They look big at 7/4 in places but do have a horrible head-to-head record against the Red Devils, for whom Molineux has been a happy hunting ground. The bookies are struggling to separate the sides and so, in truth, am I.
This led me to search the stats markets for value and there are two prices on different Wolves players that leapt out, firstly the 6/4 on offer for NELSON SEMEDO to commit 2+ fouls.
The Portuguese is averaging 1.5 fouls per game this season - and that's before we factor in that the right wing-back will likely be up against livewire foul magnet Alejandro Garnacho, who is drawing an infringement every 40 minutes on average.
Secondly, I'll have a more modest stake on Wolves assist king PEDRO NETO to take advantage of a porous Red Devils defence that has conceded twice in each of five of their past six games, including at fourth-tier Newport.
Neto ran rivals West Bromwich Albion ragged last Sunday and while he did not set up a goal in that game, he has registered a ridiculous seven assists in 11 league starts, making the 7/2 on him to notch 1+ ASSIST here very enticing indeed.
BuildABet @30/1
- Semedo 2+ fouls
- Semedo to be shown a card
- Neto 1+ assist
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Adding Semedo to be carded for one of what we hope will be a couple of hefty challenges on Garnacho - or any visiting player for that matter - boosts our BAB to a healthy 30/1.
Team news
Wolves are without Hwang Hee-chan and Boubacar Traore, who are on international duty at the Asian Cup and Africa Cup of Nations respectively - but Rayan Ait-Nouri is back from Afcon and Joao Gomes is available after a three-game suspension.
Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford is available after returning to training following his headline-grabbing omission from the FA Cup win at Newport but Erik ten Hag is hardly likely to reward his misdemeanours with a place in the starting XI.
The Red Devils' injury woes are easing but Mason Mount (calf), Victor Lindelof (groin) and Tyrell Malacia (knee) remain out, while Anthony Martial will be sidelined for weeks after groin surgery.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka is touch and go with a knock that meant he missed the Newport trip but Andre Onana should return in goal after Cameroon were knocked out of the Africa Cup of Nations by Nigeria.
Predicted line-ups
Wolves: Sa; Gomes, Dawson, Kilman; Doherty, Doyle, Lemina, Semedo; Cunha, Neto; Bellegarde
Manchester United: Onana; Shaw, Martinez, Varane, Dalot; Casemiro, Mainoo; Antony, Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund
Match stats
- Wolves have lost six of their last seven Premier League meetings with Manchester United (W1), losing the last three without scoring a single goal.
- Having won just two of their first six Premier League away games against Wolves (D1 L3), Manchester United have now won each of their last three visits to Molineux.
- Since the start of MD15 (December 5, 2023), only Liverpool (17) have amassed more Premier League points than Wolves (14 – W4 D2 L1).
- Manchester United have lost three of their last four Premier League away games (D1), scoring just one goal. The Red Devils could lose three successive away league matches for the first time since a run of seven from March to August 2022.
- Having lost their first two home Premier League games of 2023-24 (vs Brighton and Liverpool), Wolves have since gone unbeaten in eight (W5 D3). Only once have they enjoyed a longer run without defeat at Molineux in the competition (a run of 10 ending in August 2019).
- Manchester United haven’t lost a Premier League game in the month of February since 2018 (1-0 vs Newcastle), going unbeaten in their last 22 such games since then (W13 D9).
- Only 20th-placed Sheffield United (100 minutes) and 18th-placed Luton (223 minutes) have spent less time ahead in Premier League games this season than Manchester United (288 minutes), with the Red Devils failing to lead for a single minute in any of their last four away games.
- Matheus Cunha has been directly involved in seven goals across his last six home games for Wolves in all competitions, scoring and assisting in each of his last two at Molineux (vs Everton in the Premier League and Brentford in the FA Cup).
- Marcus Rashford has two Premier League goals against Wolves with both being assisted by Bruno Fernandes in 1-0 victories (December 2020 and December 2022).
Odds correct 1645 GMT (30/01/24)
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