Football betting tips: Champions League
1.25pts Over 2.5 Tottenham cards at 5/2 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
0.75pt Over 3.5 Tottenham cards at 13/2 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
A rare bit of positivity to start a Spurs preview - all of their problems have been solved.
That's what some of the narrative will have you believe following Sunday's 1-1 draw with Liverpool anyway. An unlikely point at Anfield now seen as the major revival point in their shocking campaign.
It may well be, we can't completely rule it out, but I'm refusing to follow a view that they'll now be fine because of a draw against another side who have failed to hit their previous heights.
That's the same Liverpool outfit which drew with Leeds twice. That's the same Liverpool outfit which drew at home to Burnley. That's the same Liverpool outfit which was beaten by Nottingham Forest at Anfield. That's the same Liverpool outfit which recently lost away at Wolves.
Let's just calm down a little bit here.
This tie is lost. Sure, teams have overcome worse in the past but those teams typically have belief backed by a positive atmosphere. The Spurs fans will give it something yet it's hard to believe focus won't be elsewhere.
Sunday sees the visit of Nottingham Forest in a season-defining contest. Yes, Tottenham Hotspur's attention will not be on their Champions League knockout but rather a relegation six-pointer - imagine saying that in August.
The second-half of that first leg delivered positive signs if you believe a national radio presenter wearing an skewed Ange Postecoglou mask yet it's easy to start playing when you're 4-0 down - it's also easy to distract attention from a result when you're throwing a inexperienced goalkeeper under the bus.
We've got to give them some praise for not only coming away from Anfield with a point but also without any players receiving cards given their addiction to the booking points under Igor Tudor's attempted guidance.
I don't believe the pattern continues here though and with the expected game state and likely frustration which follows, Spurs' card line certainly looks of interest.
Most bookmakers go 2/1 and above on OVER 2.5 TOTTENHAM CARDS, with 6s or so floating around for OVER 3.5. Both are worth consideration.
Backing three or more has been a winning pick in three of the five games since Tudor's comical reign at the club began. The latter landing in two of the last three, that of course includes the first leg.
Daniel Siebert is the referee appointed to this one and he's shown how strict he can be. Six of his seven Champions League outings this season have delivered at least four cards shown.
Five of those returned five or more. He doesn't quite hit the level on a consistent basis in the Bundesliga but in Europe, he certainly taps into the bookings.
Spurs have been a consistently high fouls team throughout the season but particularly under Tudor. They've committed at least 12 in each game for an average of 14.0 - Wolves lead the Premier League on 13.2 for comparison.
There's the desperation of needing to find at least three goals which should see a high foul count anyway. If they can't, and that is very likely, heads will probably go.
Just because a team has to win doesn't mean a team will win. Siding with cards is the most appealing avenue to explore.
Odds correct at 15:35 GMT (17/03/26)
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