Football betting tips: EFL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, 2. Bundesliga, Jupiler Pro League, Danish Superliga
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Sunday
1pt Over 10.5 corners in Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart (18:30) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
The corners tour of the continent continues to deliver mixed results, although it was a profitable column last time out.
It's actually more enjoyable I find; more interesting. The opportunities delivered from markets in different countries have thrown up some interesting prices.
Germany and Scotland were the happy hunting grounds last weekend and there is some interest in a return. After all, the value remains.
As previously stated when explaining the more corners-focused approach, I was going to do it for a few weeks to see if it was a long-term route to some profit.
We're still a couple of weeks into it. No changes on that yet. We begin with action from France and Germany on Friday night.
Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart
- Kick-off time: 18:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 12/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 10/11
Sunday's late action in the Bundesliga sees Hoffenheim welcoming Stuttgart with the hosts in a more comfortable position in terms of the relegation picture.
Seven points now separates themselves as Heidenheim in 16th but they know they can't afford too many slip-ups if they are to keep clear of the drop zone.
Stuttgart have won three of their last four on the road though and should pose a tough test.
Instead of gambling on the match market, I'm rounding off the theme of the column by taking OVER 10.5 CORNERS at 11/8.
Hoffenheim still top the charts for crosses attempted in the Bundesliga - their 22.64 per game average well clear of anyone else.
It's no surprise then that they are also at the lower-end of the scale for attacks through the middle third of the pitch. Stuttgart are ever so slightly more common with this but they are another crossing side.
They're seventh in the metric with a 19.0 per game average.
The style is partly why 64% of Hoffenheim's games this season have seen the corner count hit double figures. For Stuttgart, the figure stands at a higher 68%.
In away games, it jumps up to 70%. With Hoffenheim also having their opponent scoring first in eight of 11 home outings, game state may well become a factor.
At the prices, it's certainly worth involvement.
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (21/02/25)
Sunday selections
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Copenhagen vs Midtjylland (17:00) at 7/4 (bet365)
Copenhagen vs Midtjylland
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home evens | Draw 23/10 | Away 9/4
Sunday evening takes us over to a huge game in Denmark as leaders Copenhagen welcome Midtjylland who sit second.
Only goal difference separates the two sides after 18 games with the hosts four better off in this area.
It's a game which is a strong contender to see OVER 10.5 CORNERS for a few reasons.
The first of those being that this is a meeting between two teams who love to cross the ball. Midtjylland average 19.6 crosses per game while Copenhagen sit on 19.0. That puts them in the top three of this metric.
It's no surprise that the corner count has hit double figures in 72% of Midtjylland's games this season with the figure standing at 44% for Copenhagen.
Game state may also be a factor with Midtjylland conceding the first goal in five of their nine on the road. With Copenhagen getting the first in five of nine at home, it's not clear who will be ahead.
The meeting between these two sides in mid-September saw a staggering 20 corners taken - 17 (!) of those by Midtjylland as they were behind before equalising in the 69th minute.
We don't need anywhere near that level this time around, but we will side with it reaching double figures and a bit again.
Odds correct at 1545 GMT (21/02/25)
Saturday selections
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Rotherham vs Barnsley (12:30) at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 10.5 corners in Westerlo vs Charleroi (17:15) at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Hannover vs Paderborn (19:30) at 9/4 (bet365)
Rotherham vs Barnsley
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 11/8 | Draw 11/5 | Away 13/8
A South Yorkshire derby to kick off Saturday's action in Sky Bet League One and two sides who haven't met their pre-season expectations.
The visitors Barnsley are 11th in the League One table, ten points adrift of the play-offs, while Rotherham's position in 14th is a far cry from the potential promotion push some were fancying given their summer additions.
In what is a tricky game to call, I'll side with the 7/4 available on OVER 11.5 CORNERS.
This game presents us with two sides who look to cross the ball often. Rotherham sit top of the entire EFL for average crosses attempted per game (24.58) while Barnsley are 16th of 72 with 21.29.
It's partly why 61% of the visitors' league games this season have seen the corner count hit double figures. In Rotherham's home games it's 40% but that's often down to their opponents not contributing.
Rotherham rank high in the league for attacks down their left flank; Barnsley rank high for attacks down the right. Expect to see plenty of action on that side of the pitch.
Game state could well come into play here too and at the prices available, it's worth backing.
Westerlo vs Charleroi
- Kick-off time: 17:15 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 17/10
Our European adventure takes us over to Belgium next and a mid-table meeting between two teams who like to use their width.
Charleroi, the visitors in Saturday's evening kick-off, sit second in the Jupiler Pro League for average crosses attempted per 90 (20.9) while hosts Westerlo sit fifth of 16 in this metric (20.2).
It's no surprise then that they are common CORNER takers, with OVER 10.5 an interesting bet at 6/5.
Corners have been a regular feature in Westerlo's home games. They've seen this be a winning bet in 69% of their 13 games in front of their own supporters so far.
For Charleroi, the corners count hitting double figures sits at 38% in their away contests but that's more down to the opponents' lack of contribution - they take a higher amount than the teams they face.
Another positive of this bet is the potential game state. Westerlo may be favourites to win but they've conceded the first goal in eight of those 13 home contests.
There were nine corners when the sides met before the November international break, the value comes in a couple more being taken this time around.
Odds correct at 1025 GMT (21/02/25)
Hannover vs Paderborn
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Saturday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/10
A meeting of two teams who still hold some slim hopes of being involved in the promotion picture.
Paderborn sit two points behind the top three going into the weekend's fixtures while Hannover are a more significant five points adrift.
This contest gives us a duo who love to cross the ball, making the 9/4 price on OVER 11.5 CORNERS certainly worth consideration.
No side in Germany's second tier attempt more crosses than Hannover (23.3 per 90), while Paderborn are second (22.7 per 90).
It's no surprise then that they often see the corner count going high in a league that typically sees more corners than most anyway.
A total of 73% of Paderborn's 22 games this season have seen the corner count hit double figures with it standing at 59% for Hannover.
In Hannover's home games, the figure drops to 36% but then that is largely down to the opponent failing to contribute. It should be different here.
Only Hertha Berlin and Köln average more corners taken in away games this season with style a significant reason behind Paderborn's 'success' in this area.
Game state could also be an interesting factor with Hannover only scoring the first goal in five of their 11 at home, while it's the same returns for Paderborn away.
With both sides liking to use their width - there were 16 corners taken in their last meeting - I'll side with the corner count going high again here.
Odds correct at 0930 GMT (21/02/25)
Friday selections
Friday
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Freiburg vs Werder Bremen (19:30) at 4/5 (General)
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Rennes vs Reims (19:45) at 16/5 (BoyleSports)
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 23/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 21/10
Friday's Bundesliga action sees European hopefuls Freiburg host a Werder Bremen side who have struggled for consistency.
Having won their final three games before the winter break, it's one win in seven for Bremen since but the games have been filled with GOALS at least.
OVER 2.5 has been a winner in five of those seven contests and 4/5 is available on a repeat happening here.
The Bundesliga has a reputation for being a high-scoring league anyway so it will always catch the eye when a price as big as this is available on three or more goals coming in a game.
This season, it's been a winner in eight of Freiburg's ten games in front of their own supporters but they still sit seventh overall in this metric on a goals per game average rate.
Only Holstein Kiel have seen it landing in more away games (11 from 11) than Bremen (eight from 11) - that includes all three since the winter break.
Excluding the away trip to Bayern Munich, Bremen have posted at least 1.00 expected goals (xG) worth of chances in all six games from the start of January onwards.
That's naturally led to goals and I'll back that to continue happening on Friday night.
Rennes vs Reims
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 10/3
A rare trip into the French top-flight but one which has got me intrigued by the value on offer.
Rennes host Reims in a true lower mid-table clash. The hosts sit 13th in the Ligue 1 table, the visitors 14th, and both still have a chance of dropping down a division.
I fancy a play on the 3/1 and above for the match to see OVER 11.5 CORNERS.
In the three games under Habib Beye - the former Aston Villa, Doncaster and Newcastle man appointed at the end of January - Rennes have taken at least four corners in each.
They've attempted more crosses too. The 18.33 average across those outings with Beye at the helm would rank them seventh overall across the league in this category.
In Rennes' eight league games under Jorge Sampaoli, the average crossing figure stood at 14.88. With Julien Stéphan, it was 17.70.
It's no surprise then that their corner statistics have been impacted by the Sampaoli spell. Stéphan had his side averaging 6.40 corners taken per game whereas it dropped to 3.38 with Sampaoli.
As for Reims' contribution, they took six corners in a recent trip to Lyon under Samba Diawara's caretaker guidance with 40 crosses attempted across the two league games with him in charge.
At the prices and with the current managerial situations, I'll gamble on the corner count going high.
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (20/02/25) unless otherwise stated
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