Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Southampton to finish in the top 2 at 25/1 (General)
1pt James Bree to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Darnell Furlong to be carded at 2/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bree and Furlong card double at 16/1 (bet365)
This is a massive game in the Championship automatic promotion race.
Four teams are still in contention: Ipswich (2nd), Millwall (3rd), Middlesbrough (4th) and Southampton (5th).
Second spot is Ipswich’s to lose though.
They head into this fixture on 80 points, ahead of third place Millwall on goal-difference, and three points at St Mary’s would make promotion a formality on the final day - barring a 15-plus-goal swing in Millwall’s favour.
SOUTHAMPTON are back in fifth on 76 points. They’ll need to win here, then beat nothing-to-play-for Preston on final day whilst hoping that Middlesbrough fail to beat Wrexham, QPR get a result against Ipswich and Millwall drop points against Oxford.
For context, Wrexham’s play-off fate is in their own hands, QPR have nothing to play for and Oxford are already relegated.
So, that’s all the Saint’s need to happen, maximum points from their last two games and three results to go their way on the final day.
Stranger things have happened though and at 25/1 I’ll be backing Southampton TO FINISH IN THE TOP 2. I make it value.
Southampton and Ipswich’s last games of the season won’t be priced until after this one finishes - crafty bookies - but according to my calculations, the Southampton top two acca pays out at 20/1.
It is also worth noting Southampton are the 6/5 favourites on Tuesday, win as expected and this 25/1 will shorten.
And they should win.
They haven’t lost a league game since mid-January going 17 unbeaten (W13 D4) and they beat Coventry over that period.
Ipswich aren’t the best travellers, winning nine of their 22 away games (D6 L7), taking 33 points.
Given the magnitude of this game, it would be silly not to have a look at the player card market, especially as the referee appointment is a good’un.
Thomas Kirk has the whistle and he has dished out an average of 4.32 cards a game in the Championship this season. His last game had five yellows and a pen, the game before had seven yellows.
At 5/1, JAMES BREE’s price TO BE SHOWN A CARD is worth a punt.
He has only been booked once in a Saints shirt but picked up eight cards on loan at Charlton in the first half of the campaign.
Bree should be opposing Jack Clarke on Tuesday, Ipswich’s joint most fouled player (1.40) has drawn two cards from opposition right backs in his last five league starts.
DARNELL FURLONG is worth backing TO BE SHOWN A CARD for the same reasons.
At 2/1, his price is value and that is without considering his direct opponent.
Furlong has picked up 10 cards for the Tractor Boys this season and should be opposing Leo Scienza here AKA Southampton's most fouled player (2.6).
Naturally, the CARD DOUBLE at 16/1 is worth a go as well.
Odds correct at 13:15 BST (27/04/26)
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