Jake Pearson previews in-form Newcastle's trip to St Mary's to take on Southampton, providing his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt 50+ booking points at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Southampton and Newcastle were two of the most in-form teams in the Premier League heading into the previous round of fixtures, but while the Magpies extended their run to eight league matches without defeat, beating Brighton 2-1 at St James’ Park, the Saints came crashing back down to earth with a humbling 4-0 loss away to Aston Villa.
The result more or less ended any slender hopes Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men had of achieving European football this season, while for Eddie Howe’s men, their stark upturn in form has propelled them seven points clear of the relegation zone.
Despite Southampton’s poor result at the weekend, they are still in a good place at present and should not be discounted in this fixture by any means.
According to expected points (xP), Newcastle have been slightly fortunate to have picked up quite as many points as they have over their last eight – not to say they are not improved under Howe, just that a return of 12 points rather than 18 would actually be more reflective of their performances.
Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Thursday
Southampton 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Newcastle 14/5
Given that this fixture has already been covered in this week’s Beat The Market column, there is no reason to enter the win-draw-win market again, but there is a selection that catches the eye amongst the card betting, namely 50+ BOOKING POINTS at a price of 5/6.
The Saints have been shown two or more cards in 16 of their 27 fixtures this season (59%), and perhaps it should have been more with only Watford having committed more fouls on average than Hasenhüttl’s men.
More pertinent than Southampton’s tendency for yellows, however, is perhaps the intense direction with which games involving Newcastle tend to take.
Only games involving Leeds have seen more yellow cards than games involving the Magpies (115) this season, working out at 4.42 cards per match, and Toon games have only gotten feistier since the turn of the year, their seven fixtures in 2022 seeing 35 cautions.
With both teams in favour of a high-intensity style of play, plenty of players could find their way into the notebook of Kevin Friend, who, incidentally, has issued more yellow cards per game than any other referee to take charge of ten or more Premier League fixtures this season.
Southampton v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1pt 50+ booking points at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Southampton 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (08/03/22)
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