Jake Pearson previews league leaders Manchester City's trip to Southampton, and he is tipping a goal fest on the south coast.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 13/10 (bet365)
Beginning a preview with an existential question is always a risk, but here goes: What are Southampton?
One of the Premier League’s conundrums, Ralph Hasenhüttl’s Saints are capable of the sublime and the abysmal.
Two 9-0 drubbings during the Austrian manager’s tenure are the obvious results to point to when highlighting the worst of the Saints, but even across their last two league matches the Jekyll and Hyde-ism of Southampton has been apparent.
Taking on a solid Brentford side is supposed to be a tricky task for anyone in the division – Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea have all found that the case at various points throughout the season – but Southampton swept them aside with ease, putting more goals past the Bees than any other team in the league has managed in a single game this campaign.
A trip to Molineux looked a much more winnable fixture following that performance, but Southampton reached nowhere near the levels they did just four days prior, Wolves dominating the match and running out comfortable winners.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Southampton 10/1 | Draw 5/1 | Man City 1/4
The 25 goals they have scored this season puts Southampton in the top ten in that respect, but the 33 they have conceded ranks them in the bottom seven.
Win, lose or draw, one thing Southampton cannot be accused of being in recent months is boring.
Speaking of that, enter the league’s relentless winning machine, a club that has made victory so inevitable that sometimes it’s a wonder the opposition bothers turning up.
Manchester City have now won each of their last eight matches in all competitions – indeed, their last 12 in the Premier League – and another title looks a mere formality for Pep Guardiola’s men.
Their 1-0 victory over Chelsea last weekend was controlled, ruthless and unsurprising. The Citizens are the best team in the league, and this will be a difficult fixture for Southampton; that the Saints are 10/1 to win at home paints a vivid picture.
City boast the best defence in the league, but they have conceded five goals across their last five matches in all competitions, so there is hope that Southampton could find the back of the net at least once.
Even more so perhaps when factoring in recent form, the Saints netting in all but one of their last eight league matches, including against the league’s second (Wolves), fifth (Tottenham) and sixth (Brighton) best defences.
If there is a chance that Southampton will score, it is almost a given that City will, finding the target in all but three matches in the league so far.
Get on goals at St Mary's
Banking on City scoring more than one is the approach in this game though, with these two sitting in the top five based on average match goals over the last eight fixtures.
City’s last eight matches have averaged 3.75 goals per game, with Southampton’s currently standing at 3.63.
Half of City’s matches in that period have seen four or more goals, with 62% of Saints fixtures returning more than three – only Leeds matches have seen four or more on more occasions over the last eight.
Though City have a growing reputation for winning matches without coming out of second gear, the way Southampton play means their opponents must constantly be at their best. Hasenhüttl’s press is one of the best in the league and will ensure City move the ball with tempo.
If there is a team that could bring another gear out of Manchester City, it could well be Southampton, and with that in mind, goals could be on the agenda at St Mary’s.
Given how often it has landed in both of these sides' recent matches, a price of 13/10 about OVER 3.5 GOALS certainly makes appeal.
Southampton v Man City score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 13/10 (bet365)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1415 GMT (19/01/22)
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